Trump signals de-escalation in the Middle East; China’s trade surplus hits a new record

The US stock market concluded Monday’s session with gains. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.50%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.83%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) increased by 1.38%. The morning collapse, fueled by fears of stagflation, turned into a rally following statements by Donald Trump that the active phase of the war with Iran is “practically over” and that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening for tankers. This triggered a drop in WTI oil prices to $86 per barrel, removing the short-term threat of an energy collapse. The primary growth driver was the technology sector, where shares of AMD and Broadcom soared over 4.6% amid strong AI chip revenue predictions (Broadcom expects more than $100 billion in 2027). While the banking sector (Wells Fargo, Citigroup) remained under pressure due to private credit default risks, investors actively bought up discounted growth stocks.

On Tuesday, the Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized at 17.8 per dollar, breaking its fall toward seven-week lows. The rebound was sparked by Mexico’s February inflation data, which accelerated to 4.02%, breaching the central bank’s upper target threshold for the first time in a year. Despite local support, the peso remains a hostage to external shocks: the 10% global US tariffs and the war in the Middle East create a toxic backdrop for emerging market currencies. Although expensive oil bolsters Mexico’s budget, the peso’s status as a “proxy” for global risk makes it extremely vulnerable to every new wave of flight to the dollar.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered the psychological $70,000 mark, gaining about 2% amid a sharp improvement in market sentiment. The upward momentum was provided by Donald Trump’s rhetoric, who described the war with Iran as “practically over” and predicted a swift resolution to the conflict. The digital assets market recovery synchronized with a powerful rally in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.8% to exceed 54,000 points. Altcoins followed the lead: Ether (ETH) returned to the $2,130 level, while Solana (SOL) stabilized near $91 ahead of the major Alpenglow network update later this month.

European stock markets mostly declined on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.86%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 0.34% lower. The primary pressure came from the escalation of US and Israeli strikes on Iranian refineries, which paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz and sparked fears of a new inflationary spiral. Consequently, traders began pricing in ECB rate hikes. The transport and industrial sectors suffered most: Lufthansa shares fell 7.3% due to soaring jet fuel prices, while tire manufacturer Continental fell 4.4%. Automakers (Volkswagen, Porsche) also finished in the red due to global supply chain risks.

Silver (XNG) recouped most of its morning losses, stabilizing at $83.9 per ounce. Earlier in the session, quotes had collapsed nearly 6%, testing key support near $80 due to a sharp strengthening of the dollar and oil prices spiking above $100. The dual nature of the metal, as a safe haven and an industrial commodity, created conflicting flows: while geopolitical tension supported haven demand, the threat of a global recession and reduced industrial consumption (which accounts for 60% of silver demand) exerted powerful downward pressure.

WTI oil prices performed a dizzying turnaround, collapsing nearly 4% by the end of the day to $87 per barrel. This followed an earlier surge to $120 on news of production paralysis in Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. The market cooled rapidly thanks to a coordinated statement from G7 Finance Ministers regarding readiness for massive strategic reserve interventions, effectively guaranteeing the replenishment of any short-term supply deficits.

Asian markets were also under a sell-off yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 5.20% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.47%, the Hang Seng (HK50) shed 1.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) closed down at 2.85%.

China’s trade surplus soared to a record $213 billion, with exports growing by 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. These figures significantly exceeded analyst prognosis and confirmed China’s status as a global manufacturing hub capable of scaling volumes even during periods of instability.

The Australian dollar (AUD) corrected to 0.70 against the US dollar on Tuesday, losing about 0.7% following the retreat in oil prices. As a “commodity” currency, the aussie faced pressure as brent fell to $91.37 and WTI to $86. This occurred after Donald Trump announced the military operation against Iran was significantly ahead of schedule, calling it “very complete” and predicting further fuel price declines. Domestic Australian statistics presented a mixed picture: the Westpac Index rose 1.2% to 91.6, while the NAB Business Confidence Index plummeted to 1, its first negative reading since April 2025.