Supreme Court delivers Trump a heavy tariff blow

• Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs 6-3
• Trump announces new global tariffs of up to 15%
• USD set for big week due to high-risk events
• Precious metals rally on risk-off mode

After the Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s tariffs on Friday, he fought back, announcing new global tariffs of 10% – which were hiked to 15% over the weekend.

This development has certainly opened a can of worms:

• The $175 billion problem – The US government may have to refund ~$175 billion in duties already collected. *Note: Polymarket are forecasting a 20% chance*

• Fiscal woes – Tariffs were projected to bring in trillions of dollars over the course of Trump’s term and beyond. With this gone, the fiscal outlook deteriorated further.

• Existing trade deals – Senior US officials have also urged that Trump’s defeat won’t unravel deals negotiated with trade partners…

Renewed global trade uncertainty could spell trouble for US equities while supporting safe-haven assets.

Markets kicked off Sunday evening with price gaps from Friday’s close as investors reacted to the weekend turmoil.

• USDInd: -0.3%
• XAUUSD: +1%
• XAGUSD: +3%

USDInd set for rollercoaster week?

DID YOU KNOW:

FXTM’s USDInd has gained roughly 1% month-to-date with prices lingering below 98.00.

WHAT COULD MOVE USDInd THIS WEEK:

It could be a pivotal week for the greenback thanks to a triple risk cocktail revolving around Trump.

• Trump’s tariff chaos: A renewed sense of uncertainty over global trade following the Supreme Court’s decision and the ramifications it may have on the US economy could hit the dollar.

• Trump’s State of the Union address: On Tuesday, President Trump will deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term. Any comments on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy may shake the greenback.

• Trump’s threat to strike Iran: The United States and Iran are to hold the next round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday after tensions escalated in recent days. Whatever the outcome of the talks may impact the US dollar.

Beyond these high-impact events, top US data and speeches by various Fed officials could add to the overall volatility.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

• BULLISH: A strong daily close above 98.00 may open a path toward the 200-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 99.00.

• BEARISH: Weakness below 98.00 could signal a decline toward 97.00 and 96.50.