RBA minutes provide no clear guidance. Markets watch second round of US-Iran talks

There was no trading on the US stock market on Monday.

European markets ended Monday mixed, maintaining the subdued momentum of the previous week as investors assessed the impact of a strong euro and expectations that benchmark rates will remain unchanged. Germany’s DAX (DE40) declined by 0.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.26%. Trading activity was low due to holidays in North America and China.

The Swiss franc (CHF) traded around 0.77 per US dollar, remaining near historic highs amid expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain a loose monetary policy in the near term. Safe-haven demand continues to provide additional support to the currency, though its influence has diminished slightly of late. Preliminary Q4 GDP data showed economic growth of 0.2% following a 0.5% contraction in Q3. This points to the relative resilience of the Swiss economy even under external pressure, including the 39% tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG) fell by more than 2% to drop below $76 per ounce, continuing a three-week correction amid low liquidity due to holiday closures in China, Hong Kong, and several other Asian countries. The speculative surge in January, largely driven by Chinese traders, has been replaced by a sharp reversal, prompting regulators to take measures to mitigate market risks. After reaching record levels above $120 in late January, prices fell toward $64 early this month due to the closing of leveraged positions and forced asset liquidations.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices fluctuated near $63 per barrel on Monday following two consecutive weeks of declines. Markets are monitoring the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran amid an increased US military presence in the region and tough rhetoric from Donald Trump. Iran, for its part, has signaled a readiness to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Despite the geopolitics, pressure on prices persists due to oversupply. OPEC+ nations are discussing a potential production increase in April, while the International Energy Agency confirmed its projections of a significant oil surplus in 2026 and lowered its estimate for global demand growth.

Asian markets traded without a uniform trend last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) will not trade for the entire week due to Lunar New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.52%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.22%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell toward $0.70 after the publication of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, which provided no clear guidance on the future interest rate trajectory. The regulator emphasized that future decisions will depend on incoming data and the balance of risks, noting that without further tightening, inflation could remain above the 2-3% target range for longer. Markets are now awaiting Q4 wage data and the January labor market report to assess the outlook for inflation and RBA policy.