By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (2,174 contracts) with Palladium (449 contracts) also having a small positive week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,792 contracts), Steel (-853 contracts), Platinum (-816 contracts) and with Copper (-576 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
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Speculator drop Gold Bets for 5th time in 6 Weeks to 37-Week Low
Highlighting the metals data this week was sharp reduction in the Gold speculator positions. The large speculative traders sharply reduced their bullish bets again this week, which is a decline for the third consecutive week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The reduction in the bullish position now totals -85,634 contracts over just the past three weeks brings the overall Gold speculator bullish position down to a total of 165,604 contracts. This marks the lowest level for the Gold position since last May, which is a span of 37 weeks.
The Gold futures price has settled in to end the week at approximately $4,980 and rebounded this week after a hugely volatile past couple weeks. The Gold price shot all the way to $5,625 on January 29th before turning around and then falling all the way back down to a low at approximately $4,430 before rebounding. Gold is still in a parabolic uptrend overall and from the beginning of 2024 to now, the price has jumped by over 144% and has continually hit new all-time highs.
Gold leads Metals Price Performance this week
Precious metals markets were mixed on the week in their price performance. Gold was the highest mover over the past five days with a 2.3% increase. Palladium was next this week with a 1.78% rise while Steel also advanced by 0.51%.
Copper dropped by -0.52% on the week while Palladium was lower by -2.99% and Silver came out the biggest loser on the week with a -6.9% loss.
Metals Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (99 percent) and Steel (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Gold (39 percent), Platinum (44 percent) and Silver (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (38.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (54.9 percent)
Silver (44.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.0 percent)
Copper (77.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (78.3 percent)
Platinum (43.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.8 percent)
Palladium (99.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.4 percent)
Steel (95.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (100.0 percent)
Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Gold (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-18 percent) and Platinum (-16 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-30.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.7 percent)
Silver (-13.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.9 percent)
Copper (-17.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-15.3 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.5 percent)
Palladium (6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.9 percent)
Steel (8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (17.8 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 165,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -39,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,396 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.4 | 21.5 | 13.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.9 | 72.2 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 165,604 | -207,778 | 42,174 |
| – Gross Longs: | 214,508 | 87,964 | 56,610 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 48,904 | 295,742 | 14,436 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.4 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 3.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.6 | 52.9 | 89.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -30.8 | 30.4 | -1.9 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,703 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.2 | 24.6 | 22.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.1 | 56.6 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | 25,877 | -45,725 | 19,848 |
| – Gross Longs: | 38,883 | 35,248 | 32,469 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,006 | 80,973 | 12,621 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.0 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.9 | 50.1 | 62.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.4 | 10.6 | 8.1 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,390 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.9 | 31.3 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.8 | 53.7 | 3.1 |
| – Net Position: | 47,814 | -62,551 | 14,737 |
| – Gross Longs: | 97,407 | 87,240 | 23,314 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 49,593 | 149,791 | 8,577 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.8 | 16.5 | 90.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.9 | 15.4 | 7.1 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,922 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 42.8 | 26.8 | 13.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.0 | 54.3 | 3.7 |
| – Net Position: | 13,106 | -20,207 | 7,101 |
| – Gross Longs: | 31,468 | 19,742 | 9,851 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 18,362 | 39,949 | 2,750 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 3.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 43.8 | 54.4 | 80.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.6 | 13.3 | 12.0 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.2 | 31.5 | 14.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.7 | 44.8 | 8.0 |
| – Net Position: | 1,133 | -2,307 | 1,174 |
| – Gross Longs: | 8,518 | 5,453 | 2,557 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,385 | 7,760 | 1,383 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 99.4 | 3.6 | 60.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.7 | -4.1 | -11.5 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,340 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.9 | 54.9 | 2.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.0 | 90.3 | 0.5 |
| – Net Position: | 11,487 | -11,980 | 493 |
| – Gross Longs: | 13,849 | 18,584 | 679 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,362 | 30,564 | 186 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 3.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 95.6 | 4.0 | 97.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.0 | -9.3 | 35.1 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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