WTI oil prices rose by more than 4%. Silver dropped by 5%

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.01%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.44%. Investors shifted their focus from technology stocks toward cyclical and defense companies amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the scale and timing of Federal Reserve policy easing, as well as increased attention to the efficiency of capital expenditures in the field of artificial intelligence. The market was pressured by shares of large technology companies focused on AI infrastructure: Nvidia lost 2.2%, Broadcom 3.2%, Micron 3.7%, and Oracle 1.7%. At the same time, the defense sector demonstrated steady growth following President Donald Trump’s statements regarding plans to increase the US military budget to 1.5 trillion dollars in 2027.

According to a consumer expectations survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US rose to 3.4% in December 2025, compared to 3.2% in each of the two previous months. In contrast, inflation expectations for three and five years remained unchanged at 3.0%, indicating stable long-term inflation projections. Uncertainty regarding inflation increased across all horizons, pointing to a growing divergence in expectations regarding future prices.

The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed with an increase of 0.12%, the Spanish Index IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.33%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed lower at 0.04%. European stock markets declined moderately on Thursday, taking a pause after hitting record levels earlier in the week. Sentiment was pressured by uncertainty surrounding the future course of ECB policy and persistent geopolitical risks.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices rose by more than 4% and exceeded the 58 dollars per barrel mark, recovering losses from the two previous sessions as the market reassessed short-term supply risks amid a more resilient physical balance in the US. Prices were supported by data showing a 3.8 million barrel reduction in US oil inventories, which significantly exceeded expectations and refuted prognoses of inventory growth, easing concerns about a global supply glut. The rise in quotes was partially limited by an increase in inventories at Cushing, as well as a sharp rise in gasoline and distillate inventories; however, weaker US labor market data supported demand expectations by strengthening the outlook for a more dovish Fed policy.

On Thursday, silver dropped by 5% to 74 dollars per ounce, marking its second consecutive session of decline as investors took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the annual rebalancing of key commodity indices. This is expected to lead to the sale of billions of dollars worth of futures contracts in the coming days. Additional pressure on quotes was exerted by mechanical selling from passive funds adjusting their portfolios to new index weights following silver’s exceptional rally last year. These technical factors intensified the short-term decline despite persistent fundamental demand drivers.

Natural gas prices in the US decreased by approximately 3% to 3.42 dollars/MMBtu amid a moderate increase in daily production and expectations of mild weather for the next two weeks, which is anticipated to limit heating demand below seasonal norms. Although prognosists allow for a brief cold snap and a temporary increase in consumption at the end of January, overall temperatures across the country are predicted to remain above normal values until January 23. Meanwhile, EIA data showed higher actual demand: for the week ending January 2, 114 billion cubic feet of gas were withdrawn from storage, which significantly exceeds both last year’s figure and the five-year average.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.63%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 1.45%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.29% yesterday. On Friday, Chinese stock markets resumed their growth. In December, consumer price inflation accelerated to its highest level in nearly three years, primarily due to rising food prices, which partially masked persistent underlying deflationary pressure in the economy. At the same time, producer prices declined for the 39th consecutive month, although the rate of decline was the smallest since August 2024, which was perceived by the market as a sign of stabilization.

The unemployment rate in Malaysia in November 2025 decreased to 2.9% compared to 3.2% a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since November 2014. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 4.3% in annual terms to 518.4 thousand, marking a nearly six-year low, while employment rose by 3.1% and reached a record 17.09 million people.