Trump announces 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran

The US stock indices managed to recover from an early-morning sell-off on Monday, ending the session higher and setting new records. By the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.17%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.16%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed up 0.08%. Initial pressure on the market was linked to reports of a criminal investigation launched against Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which heightened concerns regarding political pressure on the regulator. The banking sector was most notably affected, with shares of major players declining amid discussions of an initiative to cap credit card interest rates. Nevertheless, overall investor sentiment remained positive due to expectations of strong Q4 corporate earnings, primarily from major banks, and hopes for relatively soft inflation data, which supported risk appetite.

On Monday evening, Trump announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, following repeated warnings of potential military action amid mass protests in the country.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 17.91 per dollar, reaching its highest level since July 2024, driven by a combination of external and internal factors. Support for the peso was provided by the Bank of Mexico’s balanced stance. Following the December rate cut, the regulator emphasized that future decisions depend on macroeconomic data, noting that underlying inflationary pressures persist and require caution. The absence of signals regarding rapid policy easing helped stabilize market expectations and maintain the appeal of the Mexican currency.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.57%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.04%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.14%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the day up 0.16%. Large companies in the industrial and financial services sectors continued their positive momentum: Siemens, Airbus, and Deutsche Bank gained between 1% and 4%. Technology stocks also largely rose, despite ongoing skepticism regarding the fundamental profitability of artificial intelligence amid rising capital expenditures.

The Swiss franc (CHF) is holding near highs seen in the early 2010s due to increased demand for safe-haven currencies. The franc was supported by escalating geopolitical tensions, including harsh mutual warnings between the US and Iran, as well as growing uncertainty surrounding international security following discussions of a potential increase in NATO’s military presence in Greenland. On the domestic front, Switzerland’s macroeconomic situation remains stable: recent inflation data reinforced expectations that the SNB will keep rates at zero in the near term, which did not prevent the franc from maintaining its status as one of the key defensive assets.

WTI crude oil prices recovered intraday losses on Monday to close higher. Prices were supported by escalating tensions in Iran, where large-scale protests increased the risk of disruptions in oil production and exports, despite government claims of a stabilizing situation. Potential strikes and threats to energy infrastructure maintain high market volatility. Supply concerns partially offset expectations of increased production in Venezuela following political changes and preparations for the resumption of exports.

US natural gas prices (XNG) rose by more than 5%, climbing above $3.35 per MMBtu and recovering from a drop to multi-week lows. The recovery was triggered by updated weather prognoses indicating the approach of colder temperatures. Market balance factors also provided support. Gas exports remain near record levels, while domestic production edged down from its December peak. An additional positive signal was a deeper-than-seasonal-norm reduction in inventories, which strengthened investor confidence in the improving fundamental market picture.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.61%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 1.44%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.48%.

In Australia, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.7% month-on-month in January 2026 to a three-month low of 92.9 points, amid persistent concerns over interest rate hikes. Commodity-related stocks led the gains, as prices surged due to tensions surrounding Iran and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.