Gold Climbs to Two-Week High

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, gold advanced by more than 1% to 4,050 USD per ounce, reaching a fresh two-week high. The rally was fuelled by mounting concerns over the health of the US economy.

A softening US dollar provided further support for the precious metal, enhancing the affordability of dollar-denominated assets for international buyers.

Data released on Friday revealed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index had fallen to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years. This decline is largely attributed to the ongoing US government shutdown, which has now become the longest in the nation’s history. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as the US Senate moves closer to approving a Democratic-backed proposal to reopen the government.

Amid the economic uncertainty, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move remain divided. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently priced at approximately 67%, unchanged from the end of last week.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is forming a consolidation range around 3,988 USD. A breakout to the upside is expected to initiate a growth wave towards 4,075 USD, which may then be followed by a decline to 4,020 USD (testing the level from below). A subsequent breakdown from this range could extend the correction towards 3,660 USD, where the downward move is anticipated to conclude. This would potentially set the stage for a new upward wave targeting 4,400 USD. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero and pointing upward, suggesting continued near-term bullish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market is also consolidating around 3,988 USD. An upward breakout is likely to propel prices towards 4,075 USD, after which a decline to at least 4,020 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is positioned above 80 and appears poised to reverse downward towards 20, indicating potential for a near-term pullback.

Conclusion

Gold is trading at a two-week high, supported by economic concerns and a weaker US dollar. While the near-term technical structure suggests potential for further gains towards 4,075 USD, a subsequent correction towards 4,020 USD is anticipated. The broader outlook remains constructive, with a deeper corrective move towards 3,660 USD expected to present a buying opportunity ahead of a potential resumption of the broader uptrend.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.