US, European, and Asian markets show mixed results amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty

On Friday, the US stocks closed with mixed results as investors analyzed economic data, corporate news, and geopolitical developments. The Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.08% on Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 1.72%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.29% (+0.94% for the week), and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) fell by 0.51% (+0.35% for the week). Retail sales for July grew by 0.5%, meeting expectations, but the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 58.6 from 61.7, as inflation concerns rose. Markets also remained cautious ahead of President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, with his plan to impose new tariffs on steel and semiconductors adding to trade uncertainty.

Bitcoin fell to around $115,000 as profit-taking and waning expectations for US rate cuts weighed on sentiment. Higher-than-expected US producer inflation and retail sales data reduced the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve policy easing, pressuring risk assets. Further headwinds included statements from the US Treasury on strategic reserves, which heightened concerns about liquidity tightening, and a change in leadership at key financial market bodies, which increased policy uncertainty and risk aversion.

European stock markets traded without a clear direction on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.08% (+0.63% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.67% (+2.05% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.47% (+4.72% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) fell by 0.42% (+0.47% for the week). In Europe, investors focused on a key meeting in Washington between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, aimed at advancing a peace agreement with Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte were also expected to attend. Trump stated that following Friday’s talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he would press Zelenskyy for a swift resolution. While these discussions did not lead to a ceasefire breakthrough, Putin agreed to the US and Europe providing reliable security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential deal.

On Monday, WTI crude oil prices rose to $63 per barrel after an early-session drop, as markets focused on the Washington meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy aimed at advancing a peace agreement with Russia. Trump stated he would pressure Zelenskyy to accept a fast resolution after his Friday talks with President Putin, which centered on Moscow’s demand for Ukraine to cede territory. Trump also said he would not urgently impose sanctions on Russia and countries buying its oil, softening his stance from their earlier summit in Alaska. Oil prices have fallen more than 10% this month, also pressured by concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs and rising OPEC+ supply.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.07%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.94%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.30%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive return of 1.38%.

In its quarterly report, the People’s Bank of China confirmed its commitment to “carefully” implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy, with an emphasis on targeted support for the economy. This pledge came amid signs of slowing momentum in July, as domestic efforts to curb overcapacity and higher US tariffs weighed on growth.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.651 on Monday, as domestic economic data saw a relatively quiet week. Investor focus now shifts to this week’s scheduled releases of the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, Consumer Inflation Expectations, flash PMI, and speeches from RBA officials. In terms of monetary policy, investors are increasingly anticipating further RBA easing before the year’s end. While no immediate policy changes are expected, traders are currently pricing in the possibility of an additional 50 basis point rate cut by November.