By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (2,281 contracts) and with Steel (60 contracts) also showing a positive week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,895 contracts), Platinum (-2,738 contracts), Copper (-2,179 contracts) and with Palladium (-238 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
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Silver leads the Weekly Price Performance for Metals Markets
The major metal markets price changes for the week were led by Silver, which advanced by just about 2.5%. Copper was the next highest mover with a gain of 1.24%, followed by Gold, which was higher by 1%, and Palladium, which increased by 0.76% over the last five days.
Copper saw a small slide of -0.54%, while Steel was the biggest loser on the week with a -4.48% decline.
Metals Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (76 percent) and Silver (74 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.4 percent)
Silver (74.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (71.4 percent)
Copper (57.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (59.5 percent)
Platinum (51.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.0 percent)
Palladium (76.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (78.2 percent)
Steel (60.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.6 percent)
Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (8 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Silver (-15 percent), Platinum (-14 percent) and Copper (-13 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (3.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.4 percent)
Silver (-15.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-23.9 percent)
Copper (-12.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.1 percent)
Platinum (-13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.4 percent)
Steel (-6.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.3 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 212,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,485 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 62.8 | 15.2 | 12.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.3 | 72.2 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 212,590 | -249,965 | 37,375 |
| – Gross Longs: | 275,277 | 66,670 | 56,098 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 62,687 | 316,635 | 18,723 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.4 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 3.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.0 | 32.3 | 99.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.7 | -4.2 | 6.7 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,268 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 43.0 | 28.5 | 19.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.6 | 70.5 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | 46,549 | -66,675 | 20,126 |
| – Gross Longs: | 68,102 | 45,127 | 31,016 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 21,553 | 111,802 | 10,890 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.2 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 74.2 | 21.2 | 68.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.0 | 14.2 | -4.6 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.1 | 35.0 | 9.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.7 | 53.2 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 26,032 | -35,365 | 9,333 |
| – Gross Longs: | 56,691 | 68,369 | 18,867 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 30,659 | 103,734 | 9,534 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.5 | 40.0 | 74.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.6 | 4.9 | 47.4 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,788 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 57.2 | 19.8 | 11.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.7 | 43.8 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | 15,050 | -20,674 | 5,624 |
| – Gross Longs: | 49,269 | 17,034 | 9,912 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,219 | 37,708 | 4,288 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 51.5 | 46.6 | 63.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.5 | 12.7 | 0.5 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,496 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.2 | 32.8 | 15.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 57.4 | 24.6 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | -3,734 | 1,679 | 2,055 |
| – Gross Longs: | 8,040 | 6,719 | 3,137 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,774 | 5,040 | 1,082 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 2.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.4 | 10.0 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.5 | -11.5 | 19.1 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 60 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -718 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.8 | 76.6 | 1.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.6 | 74.6 | 1.1 |
| – Net Position: | -658 | 478 | 180 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,386 | 17,905 | 445 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,044 | 17,427 | 265 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.0 | 40.2 | 59.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.3 | 7.0 | -13.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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