By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold
The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a rise of 13,454 contracts on the week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-16,661 contracts), Silver (-8,749 contracts), Platinum (-3,906 contracts), Steel (-1,265 contracts) and with Palladium (-482 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
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Gold Speculator Bets rose for 5th time in 6 weeks
Gold speculator bets rose this week for the fifth time out of the last six weeks, and for the ninth time out of the last 12 weeks. The gold speculator bets have now been over +200,000 contracts in these last six weeks after a cool off in bets from April to June that saw just one week over +200,000 speculator positions.
The gold price was up 1.25% this week, while being up only two percent over the last 30 days and higher by just under nine percent over the last 90 days.
Elsewhere, silver was the highest mover on the week with a gain of almost 4%. Platinum followed with a gain over 2%. Platinum has been up by over 40% in the last 90 days. Copper came in at just below 1% for gains this week, while Steel fell 0.70% and Palladium took a big hit by almost 7% on the week, even though Palladium is up 20% in the last 90 days.
Metals Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (87 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (65.1 percent)
Silver (79.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (90.3 percent)
Copper (52.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (68.0 percent)
Platinum (55.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.6 percent)
Palladium (86.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.6 percent)
Steel (64.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.8 percent)
Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
Platinum (-20 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (16.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-15.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (-8.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.6 percent)
Platinum (-20.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-6.3 percent)
Palladium (16.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (6.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (13.0 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 237,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 223,596 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 65.0 | 16.5 | 11.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.3 | 76.6 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 237,050 | -270,146 | 33,096 |
| – Gross Longs: | 292,194 | 74,075 | 52,597 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 55,144 | 344,221 | 19,501 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.3 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 70.2 | 25.1 | 84.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.0 | -14.3 | -8.3 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,407 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.2 | 23.2 | 19.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.8 | 67.9 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | 50,658 | -72,228 | 21,570 |
| – Gross Longs: | 71,234 | 37,347 | 31,007 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 20,576 | 109,575 | 9,437 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.5 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 3.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 79.3 | 15.1 | 75.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.4 | 11.3 | 9.9 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 20,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,347 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.8 | 33.3 | 10.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.3 | 49.8 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 20,686 | -32,762 | 12,076 |
| – Gross Longs: | 54,929 | 65,903 | 20,148 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,243 | 98,665 | 8,072 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.5 | 42.2 | 90.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.1 | -0.9 | 59.3 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,568 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 57.2 | 19.1 | 12.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.5 | 47.7 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 16,662 | -22,999 | 6,337 |
| – Gross Longs: | 46,067 | 15,414 | 10,274 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 29,405 | 38,413 | 3,937 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 55.4 | 41.4 | 71.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.2 | 15.9 | 16.5 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,335 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,853 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 42.3 | 34.1 | 15.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 54.5 | 30.5 | 6.4 |
| – Net Position: | -2,335 | 701 | 1,634 |
| – Gross Longs: | 8,048 | 6,502 | 2,850 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,383 | 5,801 | 1,216 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 86.9 | 2.6 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.3 | -20.3 | 21.8 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,173 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.1 | 73.8 | 1.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.5 | 74.3 | 0.9 |
| – Net Position: | -92 | -101 | 193 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,039 | 15,607 | 387 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 4,131 | 15,708 | 194 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.0 | 36.2 | 60.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.8 | -7.1 | 6.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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