S&P 500 hits an all-time high for five consecutive days. RBNZ plans rate cut at August meeting

As of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47% (up +1.20% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.40% (weekly +1.33%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up 0.23% (weekly +0.64%). On Friday, the S&P 500 reached its fifth consecutive record close, the longest streak in over a year. Trade negotiations fueled market optimism, as President Trump planned to meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday amid hopes of a US-EU trade deal. Agreements were also reached with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, though talks with Canada have stalled. Strong financial results from Alphabet and Verizon boosted sentiment, while Intel weighed on the tech sector after issuing a profit warning and announcing layoffs.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 0.32% (weekly -0.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) edged up 0.21% (weekly +0.11%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.13% (weekly +1.75%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended down 0.20% (weekly +1.43%). European stocks closed mostly lower as markets continued to assess recent corporate earnings reports. Schneider Electric and Airbus both fell more than 1% ahead of next week’s earnings releases, setting a negative tone for industrials. ASML and Nokia each dropped around 1.5%, with the latter continuing to slide after a pessimistic earnings report earlier in the week. On the positive side, LVMH jumped 4% after releasing its results, while Volkswagen also rose by 4% despite a negative outlook in its report, lifting the luxury goods and automotive sectors overall.

Over the weekend, the US, and EU reached a trade agreement. The deal introduces a 15% tariff on most European goods, significantly lower than the initially threatened 30% from Washington, easing concerns about a broader trade conflict. The announcement was made jointly by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, key details, such as the specific industries covered and the scope of possible exemptions. remain unclear.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.3% on Friday, closing at $65.2 per barrel (the lowest since June 30) as concerns over weakening economic signals from the US and China pressured prices. For the week, WTI declined by about 3%, driven by signs of rising global supply and slowing business investment. The US is preparing to allow Chevron and other companies to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially boosting oil exports by over 200,000 barrels per day and easing shortages of heavier crude grades. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to raise production at its Monday meeting, aiming to regain market share as summer demand absorbs the additional barrels.

Asian markets mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged 3.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.59%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a decline of 1.03%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.602 but remained on track for a weekly gain, supported by improved investor sentiment amid prospects of new US trade deals. Domestically, markets are pricing in a roughly 75% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its benchmark rate from 3.25% by 25 basis points at its August meeting, though investors suspect this may be near the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said Thursday the Central Bank is prepared to cut rates further if price pressures continue to ease, as expected.