By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini
The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (15,949 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (8,475 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (7,187 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,950 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also having positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,438 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (81 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and S&P500-Mini (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the VIX (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (44.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (70.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (79.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (54.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (81.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (72.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (75.5 percent)
Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (24 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (23 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The VIX (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-38.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (23.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-13.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-18.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (13.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.4 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -69,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,665 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.1 | 49.2 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.9 | 31.7 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -69,103 | 68,093 | 1,010 |
| – Gross Longs: | 86,226 | 191,773 | 28,991 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 155,329 | 123,680 | 27,981 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.7 | 65.9 | 82.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -38.4 | 34.0 | 10.2 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,966 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.1 | 70.0 | 13.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.7 | 75.1 | 7.0 |
| – Net Position: | -32,779 | -107,803 | 140,582 |
| – Gross Longs: | 300,949 | 1,489,757 | 288,516 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 333,728 | 1,597,560 | 147,934 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.4 | 18.8 | 93.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.4 | -3.3 | 9.7 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 61.0 | 18.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.9 | 70.0 | 13.0 |
| – Net Position: | 2,877 | -7,270 | 4,393 |
| – Gross Longs: | 14,179 | 49,676 | 14,949 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,302 | 56,946 | 10,556 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.0 | 27.7 | 80.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.9 | 5.9 | -13.7 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,828 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.3 | 53.0 | 15.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.3 | 67.8 | 10.1 |
| – Net Position: | 25,777 | -42,316 | 16,539 |
| – Gross Longs: | 83,882 | 151,632 | 45,463 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 58,105 | 193,948 | 28,924 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 79.1 | 8.1 | 86.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 23.6 | -19.6 | 5.8 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,806 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.2 | 75.1 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.3 | 73.0 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | -21,331 | 8,625 | 12,706 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,610 | 317,140 | 33,096 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 72,941 | 308,515 | 20,390 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.4 | 29.2 | 60.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.8 | 14.8 | -10.9 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,831 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.0 | 67.8 | 20.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.0 | 63.1 | 25.9 |
| – Net Position: | 119 | 569 | -688 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,444 | 8,165 | 2,430 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,325 | 7,596 | 3,118 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.2 | 30.4 | 30.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 25.0 | -14.4 | -16.8 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,856 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.7 | 85.4 | 2.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.9 | 84.3 | 1.6 |
| – Net Position: | -9,907 | 4,946 | 4,961 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,405 | 376,321 | 11,891 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 61,312 | 371,375 | 6,930 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 72.8 | 32.2 | 41.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 23.0 | -22.8 | 9.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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