Nvidia earnings preview: Make-or-break moment…

• Nvidia world’s 2nd largest company with $3.1 trillion market cap
  

• Earnings due after US markets close Wednesday, 26th Feb
  

• DeepSeek threat, tariffs and supply outlook in focus

• Shares forecast to move almost 10% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
  

• Technical levels: $115, $138 & $150

Nvidia’s earnings will be a defining moment for itself and the entire tech space.

Making it one of the biggest events for Q1.

Given the lofty expectations, the AI giant must deliver exceptional results to keep bulls alive.

But this could be complicated by mounting competition and supply constraints.

Here is what you need to know:

The lowdown…

Nvidia shares took a beating in late January, plunging 17% after Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek rocked the tech space. Although shares later rebounded, prices are still down almost 6% year-to-date.

When will earnings be released?

Nvidia will report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after US markets close on Wednesday.

What are markets expecting

• Revenue: $38.2 billion – reflecting a staggering 73% YoY increase.

• Data Center revenue: $34.1 billion

• Gross profit margins: 73.5%

• Net profits: $21.0 billion

• Earnings per share (EPS): $0.84 – reflecting a massive 64% YoY increase.

Most importantly, all eyes will be on Nvidia’s guidance for future earnings which could boost or reduce confidence over its business outlook.

Note: Nvidia projected Q4 revenues of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2% during its last report.

Why is Nvidia’s earnings so important?

Nvidia plays a critical role in AI development across the world.

The likes of Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet use Nvidia’s GPUs for their AI systems while Tesla uses them in its vehicles. OpenAI relies on Nvidia chips to train ChatGPT and Tencent/Alibaba use them in their chatbots.

So, the company’s earnings could serve as a major gauge for the AI trade while also re-confirming whether its $3.1 trillion valuation is justified.

Potential challenges

• DeepSeek’s cheaper AI models hitting demand for Nvidia’s pricier chips.

• Trump’s tariffs and trade uncertainty reducing chip sales, especially in China.

• Supply challenges and production delays for Blackwell GPUs limiting growth.

How will Nvidia react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a near 10% move, either up or down, for Nvidia stocks post earnings.

Note: With a $3.1 billion valuation, a nearly 10% move in the price of Nvidia is $310 billion. This is larger than the entire value of over 95% of companies in the S&P500.

Possible scenarios

• If Nvidia delivers exceptional results and raises its guidance – prices could rally.

• If Nvidia misses expectations and flags potential challenges down the road – prices may tumble.

What does this mean for FXTM’s NAS100 index.

FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.

And Nvidia makes up under 10% of the index weighting, meaning that the upcoming earnings could result in heightened volatility.

The index is down almost 2% this month, with year-to-date gains flat. Prices are under pressure on the daily charts with bears eyeing support at 20500.

Key levels of interest can be found at 22256, 21400 and 20500.

Technical forces

Nvidia shares are under pressure on the daily charts.

This continues to be reflected in price action with the candlesticks below the 21, 50 and 100-day SMA.

• Weakness below the 200-day SMA could signal a decline toward the $115.00 support and $100.

• A solid move above the 50 and 100-day SMA could signal a move back toward $138, $150, and fresh all-time high beyond $152.69.