By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & VIX
The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (2,658 contracts) with the VIX (1,330 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (381 contracts) also recording positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-22,857 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,064 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (-3,608 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (66 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (65 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the VIX (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (44.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (42.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (70.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (54.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (60.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (61.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (73.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (80.8 percent)
MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (14 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-25.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-16.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-18.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-20.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (13.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (33.9 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -57,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,995 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.6 | 49.4 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.0 | 35.5 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -57,665 | 55,617 | 2,048 |
| – Gross Longs: | 86,047 | 197,334 | 28,989 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 143,712 | 141,717 | 26,941 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.1 | 55.3 | 86.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.1 | 17.9 | 23.0 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,109 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.8 | 69.6 | 13.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.6 | 73.9 | 7.0 |
| – Net Position: | -39,966 | -91,985 | 131,951 |
| – Gross Longs: | 313,105 | 1,475,997 | 281,293 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 353,071 | 1,567,982 | 149,342 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 66.2 | 21.1 | 89.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.7 | -5.2 | 5.0 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 61.0 | 18.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.9 | 70.0 | 13.0 |
| – Net Position: | 2,877 | -7,270 | 4,393 |
| – Gross Longs: | 14,179 | 49,676 | 14,949 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,302 | 56,946 | 10,556 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.0 | 27.7 | 80.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.9 | 5.9 | -13.7 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,436 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.3 | 54.6 | 13.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.9 | 60.4 | 11.0 |
| – Net Position: | 9,828 | -16,759 | 6,931 |
| – Gross Longs: | 87,917 | 158,263 | 38,847 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 78,089 | 175,022 | 31,916 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.4 | 35.5 | 67.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.9 | 18.2 | -15.3 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -29,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,464 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.2 | 77.3 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.4 | 73.6 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | -29,806 | 15,397 | 14,409 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,482 | 322,190 | 33,687 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 72,288 | 306,793 | 19,278 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.6 | 33.4 | 65.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.2 | 19.4 | -14.3 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,212 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.1 | 71.8 | 20.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.2 | 56.1 | 19.7 |
| – Net Position: | -1,831 | 1,788 | 43 |
| – Gross Longs: | 923 | 8,168 | 2,280 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,754 | 6,380 | 2,237 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.6 | 38.9 | 44.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.8 | -8.7 | -7.1 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,792 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.3 | 84.9 | 2.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.1 | 84.1 | 1.5 |
| – Net Position: | -7,856 | 3,456 | 4,400 |
| – Gross Longs: | 54,691 | 376,901 | 11,099 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 62,547 | 373,445 | 6,699 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 73.0 | 30.4 | 39.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 24.5 | -26.4 | 15.4 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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