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22 Feb

COT Speculator Extremes: Steel & US Treasury Bonds lead Bullish Positions

February 22, 2025

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 18th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel


The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

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The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 35.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 5,090 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,235 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next and tied for the most bullish lead in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 22.5 this week. The speculator position registered 47,781 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 3,780 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings as the yen sentiment has turned around positively. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 32.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,569 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,954 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as Corn’s sentiment has also turned around sharply in the past months. The Corn speculator level is currently at a 93.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 468,724 net contracts this week with a jump by 43,955 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs


The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 90.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.3 this week.

The speculator position was 80,857 net contracts this week with an advance by 7,637 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was also 2.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -52,163 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,827 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.6 this week. The speculator position was -20,707 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,819 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 8.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,068 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,497 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 9.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.8 this week. The speculator position was -51,420 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,005 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 13.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 3.4 this week. The speculator position was -1,737,533 net contracts this week with a rise by 124,202 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 


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