16 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, Ultra T-Bonds, US Dollar & 5-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

November 16, 2024

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs


The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score or maximum of its 3-year range.

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The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 50.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 75,982 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,541 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds


The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is now at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 10.1 this week. The speculator position registered -241,284 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 23,124 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar


The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 97.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 10.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 29,795 net contracts this week with a small dip of -1,181 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil


The Soybean Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 94.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 25.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 97,225 net contracts this week with a boost of 20,687 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.0 this week.

The speculator position was -808 net contracts this week with a decline of -394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,869,210 net contracts this week with a drop by -101,801 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index


The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a decrease by -2,407 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,423,871 net contracts this week with an increase of 62,488 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar


The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 6.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.4 this week. The speculator position was -182,389 net contracts this week with a weekly shortfall of -7,160 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

Finally, the E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level is at a 10.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.7 this week. The speculator position was -228 net contracts this week with a change of 575 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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