Gold (XAUUSD) Holds Near Record Highs Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices remained stable at around $2580 per troy ounce on Tuesday, hovering close to their record highs. This resilience in the gold market is largely driven by the weakening US dollar and heightened expectations for a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Current projections from the CME FedWatch tool indicate a 67% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in today’s Fed meeting, a significant increase from the 40% chance noted yesterday. Additionally, there’s a 33% probability of a more modest 25 basis point reduction. These expectations have significantly influenced market sentiment, prompting investors to flock to gold as a protective asset.

Recent geopolitical events, such as the attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, have also underscored the metal’s appeal as a safe haven, leading to a spike in demand during times of perceived instability.

The potential easing of US monetary policy, expected to be confirmed in Wednesday’s Fed announcement, further bolsters gold’s attractiveness. With its lack of coupon income, gold becomes more appealing during periods when yields on US government bonds are falling, and the Dollar Index (DXY) is weakening.

Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold broke through the consolidation range at 2530.00 and executed a growth wave up to 2586.00. The market has now reached the expansion potential of this range and is forming a new consolidation zone at these highs. The primary expectation is for a downward move to 2555.50, potentially extending into a corrective phase towards 2530.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, showing signal lines above zero but starting a downward trajectory, indicating the potential for a forthcoming decline.

On the H1 chart, gold reached up to 2588.88 and is currently consolidating just below this peak. A break below this consolidation could lead to a move down to 2555.50. Conversely, a break above could briefly push prices towards 2600.00 before a potential reversal to 2530.00. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing sharply downward towards 20, corroborates this expected downward movement.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

---

Latest Financial Markets News:

• Trump announces exemption of key tech goods from imposed tariffs Apr 14, 2025
• COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Platinum & Silver Apr 13, 2025
• COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds Apr 13, 2025
• COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Wheat Apr 13, 2025
• COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Nasdaq, Russell & DowJones Apr 13, 2025
• The US stocks are back to selling off. The US raised tariffs on China to 145% Apr 11, 2025
• EUR/USD Hits Three-Year High as the US Dollar Suffers Heavy Losses Apr 11, 2025
• Markets rallied sharply on the back of a 90-day tariff postponement. China became an exception with tariffs of 125% Apr 10, 2025
• Pound Rallies Sharply Weak Dollar Boosts GBP, but BoE Rate Outlook May Complicate Future Gains Apr 10, 2025
• Tariffs on US imports come into effect today. The RBNZ expectedly lowered the rate by 0.25% Apr 9, 2025