Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings showdown could set market tone

• Nvidia shares ↑150% year-to-date

• Data center business and Q3 guidance in focus

• Shares could move 10.4% ↑ or ↓ post earnings

• Prices edging higher on H1 but RSI near oversold

• Technical levels – $130, $119, 200 SMA and $110

Financial markets may end August with a bang thanks to key data and high-impact events.

Earnings from tech titan Nvidia and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge have the potential to set the tone for the new trading month:

Monday, 26th Aug

• GER40: Germany IFO business climate
• NGN: Nigeria GDP
• SG20: Singapore industrial production
• US500: US durable goods

Tuesday, 27th Aug

• CN50: China industrial profits
• GER40: Germany GDP
• AU200: BHP, Woodside Energy earnings
• US30: US Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday 28th Aug

• AU200: Australia CPI
• NAS100: Nvidia earnings
• USDInd: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, 29th Aug

• EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence
• GER40: Germany CPI
• SEK: Sweden GDP
• US500: US GDP, initial jobless claims, Fed speak

Friday, 30th Aug

• CHINAH: ICBC (China’s largest commercial bank) earnings
• CAD: Canada GDP
• EU50: Eurozone CPI, German unemployment
• JP225: Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales
• US500: US PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The end of earnings season is near, and Nvidia now comes into sharp focus, after mostly disappointing results from the so-called Magnificent Seven.

When considering Nvidia’s central role in the AI boom, its upcoming earnings have the potential to shape market sentiment with investors undoubtedly looking for another round of outstanding results.

Fun fact: Nvidia shares are up roughly 150% since the start of 2024

When will earnings be published

Nvidia reports its earnings for the second quarter of its 2025 fiscal year after US markets close on Wednesday 28th August.

Market expectations

The tech giant is forecast to post earnings per share of $0.65 compared to $0.27 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are expected to rise $28.7 billion from $13.5 billion in the prior year – representing a 112.6% increase.  

Investors will also be paying close attention to the data center segment and whether earning guidance is raised for Q3.

As highlighted earlier, there is little room for error with exceptional results needed to justify its whopping $3 trillion valuation.

Potential challenges

• Concerns over the Blackwell chip delay potentially weighing on the business outlook.

• Increasing competition from the likes of AMD and Intel which are investing in their own AI chips.

• Potential US bans hitting demand for Nvidia chips in China

How will Nvidia shares react to earnings

Markets are forecasting a 10.4% move, either Up or Down, for Nvidia stocks on Thursday post earnings. 

This is equivalent to a move of roughly $300 billion, bigger than the entire market cap of many large companies in the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

How will wider markets be influenced?

Over the past 12 months, the Nasdaq 100 has shown a 74% positive correlation with Nvidia shares.

But more interestingly, over a rolling 5-day from the past 10 years:

• US500: +97%

• UK100: +53%

• Intel Corp: +95%

• Broadcom: +99%

• Advanced Micro Devices: +90%

What does this mean?

Given how some US and European equities are trading near all-time highs, a positive set of results from Nvidia could mean fresh upside gains – opening the doors to more records.

Technical forces

Prices may continue to consolidate within a range until the earnings are published.

Still, Nvidia stocks have been trending higher on the H1 charts with prices above the 100 and 200- SMA. But weakness below the 50 SMA could signal a decline toward the 119.00 support regions. Keep an eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) index is edging towards oversold levels.

• Key levels of interest can be found at $130, 119, 200 SMA and $110.