COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

September 30, 2023

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (49,710 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,923 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,959 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-24,019 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-3,849 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,348 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-196 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-26-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,137,648	15	-89,281	51	65,622	49	23,659	47
Nikkei 225	15,483	15	-610	62	-1,200	29	1,810	51
Nasdaq-Mini	241,018	29	846	66	-992	36	146	66
DowJones-Mini	92,551	51	-21,618	13	19,472	73	2,146	54
VIX	384,930	64	-52,835	80	58,631	19	-5,796	66
Nikkei 225 Yen	53,690	42	10,779	67	7,032	30	-17,811	49

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (80 percent) currently leads the stock markets this week and is in Extreme-Bullish territory (above 80 percent). The Nasdaq-Mini (66 percent) and Nikkei 225 (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (97.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (51.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (44.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (66.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (35.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (62.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (31.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.0 percent)

Russell-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-20 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-19.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (11.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-52.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-61.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (0.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (1.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	47.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	32.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-52,835	58,631	-5,796
– Gross Longs:	86,408	181,651	24,727
– Gross Shorts:	139,243	123,020	30,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	19.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	19.2	-0.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -89,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 49,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	69.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-89,281	65,622	23,659
– Gross Longs:	266,095	1,560,014	251,580
– Gross Shorts:	355,376	1,494,392	227,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	49.0	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-4.2	0.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	62.3	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	41.3	13.4
– Net Position:	-21,618	19,472	2,146
– Gross Longs:	18,237	57,681	14,570
– Gross Shorts:	39,855	38,209	12,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	73.3	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.1	33.7	8.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	58.2	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	58.6	16.5
– Net Position:	846	-992	146
– Gross Longs:	58,307	140,156	39,946
– Gross Shorts:	57,461	141,148	39,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	35.8	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.9	1.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	85.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	72.4	4.9
– Net Position:	-61,602	59,276	2,326
– Gross Longs:	35,566	393,907	24,965
– Gross Shorts:	97,168	334,631	22,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	63.8	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.8	-3.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	67.1	24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	74.8	12.7
– Net Position:	-610	-1,200	1,810
– Gross Longs:	1,325	10,385	3,773
– Gross Shorts:	1,935	11,585	1,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	28.6	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-3.7	6.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	89.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	83.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-25,328	22,834	2,494
– Gross Longs:	29,019	344,909	8,675
– Gross Shorts:	54,347	322,075	6,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	69.6	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	5.8	-20.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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