By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX
The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (41,162 contracts) with the VIX (18,419 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (16,048 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-7,252 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-6,768 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-34 contracts) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (-587 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Aug-15-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P500-Mini | 2,220,084 | 22 | -118,408 | 47 | 96,147 | 53 | 22,261 | 52 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16,974 | 19 | -700 | 65 | -596 | 32 | 1,296 | 45 |
| Nasdaq-Mini | 267,495 | 42 | 5,169 | 80 | -4,716 | 20 | -453 | 53 |
| DowJones-Mini | 104,216 | 71 | -3,221 | 65 | 2,879 | 40 | 342 | 46 |
| VIX | 395,240 | 70 | -25,985 | 100 | 31,613 | 0 | -5,628 | 67 |
| Nikkei 225 Yen | 51,699 | 39 | 5,860 | 52 | 14,729 | 51 | -20,589 | 40 |
Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (65 percent) and DowJones-Mini (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (29 percent).
Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (86.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (40.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (64.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (85.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (80.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (29.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)
Nikkei 225 & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (36 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (28 percent), the VIX (21 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (21.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (14.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (65.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-16.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-8.5 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,404 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.9 | 42.2 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.4 | 34.2 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | -25,985 | 31,613 | -5,628 |
| – Gross Longs: | 102,229 | 166,941 | 22,357 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 128,214 | 135,328 | 27,985 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 67.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 21.1 | -18.8 | -12.8 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -118,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,570 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.7 | 73.6 | 11.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.0 | 69.3 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -118,408 | 96,147 | 22,261 |
| – Gross Longs: | 258,924 | 1,634,627 | 263,621 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 377,332 | 1,538,480 | 241,360 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.1 | 53.2 | 52.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.2 | -15.1 | 7.3 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,031 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.0 | 51.7 | 13.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.0 | 49.0 | 13.5 |
| – Net Position: | -3,221 | 2,879 | 342 |
| – Gross Longs: | 32,257 | 53,909 | 14,419 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 35,478 | 51,030 | 14,077 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.8 | 39.7 | 45.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 27.9 | -23.0 | 7.3 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,879 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.0 | 56.7 | 15.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.0 | 58.4 | 15.4 |
| – Net Position: | 5,169 | -4,716 | -453 |
| – Gross Longs: | 69,459 | 151,549 | 40,682 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 64,290 | 156,265 | 41,135 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 80.2 | 19.6 | 52.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.2 | -0.5 | 2.1 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -71,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,511 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.2 | 83.9 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.8 | 71.0 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | -71,279 | 67,827 | 3,452 |
| – Gross Longs: | 48,652 | 441,976 | 26,060 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 119,931 | 374,149 | 22,608 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.2 | 68.6 | 37.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.3 | 2.2 | -0.6 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -666 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.2 | 61.8 | 25.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.3 | 65.3 | 17.4 |
| – Net Position: | -700 | -596 | 1,296 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,242 | 10,489 | 4,243 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,942 | 11,085 | 2,947 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.5 | 32.3 | 44.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 35.8 | -32.0 | -2.7 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,909 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.4 | 89.1 | 2.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.2 | 84.9 | 1.2 |
| – Net Position: | -23,496 | 16,838 | 6,658 |
| – Gross Longs: | 29,476 | 356,117 | 11,619 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 52,972 | 339,279 | 4,961 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.5 | 79.4 | 50.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.4 | 8.6 | 23.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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