By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium with a weekly rise of 769 contracts.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,849 contracts) with Copper (-15,641 contracts), Silver (-5,463 contracts), Platinum (-2,991 contracts) and Steel (-403 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
| Aug-15-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 433,611 | 5 | 121,136 | 30 | -141,930 | 69 | 20,794 | 32 |
| Silver | 138,215 | 30 | 7,861 | 29 | -23,264 | 66 | 15,403 | 52 |
| Copper | 224,215 | 62 | -25,698 | 9 | 20,665 | 89 | 5,033 | 50 |
| Palladium | 20,511 | 100 | -9,423 | 6 | 9,722 | 96 | -299 | 24 |
| Platinum | 84,557 | 100 | 1 | 16 | -5,866 | 81 | 5,865 | 47 |
Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (63 percent) and Gold (30 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Palladium (6 percent), Copper (9 percent) and Platinum (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (30.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.0 percent)
Silver (29.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (8.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.2 percent)
Platinum (15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.5 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.1 percent)
Platinum & Gold top the negative 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have lower six-week trends scores.
Platinum (-19 percent), Gold (-18 percent, Copper (-15 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.9 percent)
Silver (-14.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.2 percent)
Copper (-14.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.2 percent)
Platinum (-18.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-21.2 percent)
Palladium (-11.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.6 percent)
Steel (-9.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.3 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 121,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,985 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 53.8 | 26.8 | 10.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.8 | 59.5 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | 121,136 | -141,930 | 20,794 |
| – Gross Longs: | 233,078 | 116,062 | 44,337 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 111,942 | 257,992 | 23,543 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 30.4 | 69.2 | 32.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.5 | 16.5 | -2.1 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.7 | 34.2 | 20.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.0 | 51.0 | 9.1 |
| – Net Position: | 7,861 | -23,264 | 15,403 |
| – Gross Longs: | 50,692 | 47,240 | 28,028 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 42,831 | 70,504 | 12,625 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.5 | 65.7 | 52.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.5 | 7.6 | 21.4 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,057 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.1 | 45.4 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.5 | 36.2 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | -25,698 | 20,665 | 5,033 |
| – Gross Longs: | 67,401 | 101,827 | 18,180 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 93,099 | 81,162 | 13,147 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.6 | 88.7 | 50.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.6 | 11.6 | 18.2 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,992 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.3 | 28.5 | 11.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 52.3 | 35.4 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | 1 | -5,866 | 5,865 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,233 | 24,075 | 9,751 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 44,232 | 29,941 | 3,886 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.6 | 81.4 | 46.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.6 | 15.9 | 4.8 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,192 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.7 | 58.5 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 65.7 | 11.1 | 8.7 |
| – Net Position: | -9,423 | 9,722 | -299 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,048 | 12,006 | 1,482 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,471 | 2,284 | 1,781 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 5.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.5 | 96.1 | 23.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.0 | 9.2 | 10.2 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,121 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.3 | 87.4 | 1.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.8 | 70.7 | 1.4 |
| – Net Position: | -3,524 | 3,558 | -34 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,547 | 18,597 | 274 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,071 | 15,039 | 308 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.0 | 37.4 | 15.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.8 | 10.5 | -24.8 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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