By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & the VIX
The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (11,444 contracts) with the VIX (10,444 contracts), Nikkei 225 (1,007 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (171 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-54,706 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-9,749 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,789 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Jul-18-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P500-Mini | 2,280,677 | 28 | -263,685 | 25 | 235,997 | 72 | 27,688 | 54 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16,045 | 16 | -2,864 | 50 | 1,564 | 45 | 1,300 | 45 |
| Nasdaq-Mini | 264,119 | 40 | 1,199 | 78 | 4,393 | 26 | -5,592 | 43 |
| DowJones-Mini | 102,267 | 68 | -7,141 | 54 | 6,949 | 48 | 192 | 45 |
| VIX | 438,936 | 92 | -40,289 | 90 | 44,518 | 8 | -4,229 | 74 |
| Nikkei 225 Yen | 51,387 | 38 | 7,207 | 56 | 15,003 | 52 | -22,210 | 35 |
Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (90 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (56 percent) and DowJones-Mini (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (19 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (25 percent).
Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (82.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (25.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (53.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (21.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (83.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (43.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (29 percent), the VIX (13 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The Nasdaq-Mini (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (12.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (44.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (8.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-4.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (19.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -40,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,733 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.0 | 47.3 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.2 | 37.1 | 6.3 |
| – Net Position: | -40,289 | 44,518 | -4,229 |
| – Gross Longs: | 109,936 | 207,566 | 23,481 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 150,225 | 163,048 | 27,710 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 90.1 | 7.7 | 74.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.8 | -11.0 | -12.0 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -263,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -54,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,979 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.3 | 75.8 | 11.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.9 | 65.5 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | -263,685 | 235,997 | 27,688 |
| – Gross Longs: | 235,723 | 1,728,979 | 264,046 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 499,408 | 1,492,982 | 236,358 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.4 | 72.5 | 53.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.1 | -15.8 | 11.9 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,585 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.1 | 54.5 | 14.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.0 | 47.7 | 14.4 |
| – Net Position: | -7,141 | 6,949 | 192 |
| – Gross Longs: | 29,709 | 55,758 | 14,913 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,850 | 48,809 | 14,721 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 53.7 | 47.9 | 44.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 44.2 | -29.6 | -4.9 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,948 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.5 | 53.8 | 14.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.0 | 52.1 | 17.0 |
| – Net Position: | 1,199 | 4,393 | -5,592 |
| – Gross Longs: | 75,196 | 141,970 | 39,322 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 73,997 | 137,577 | 44,914 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.9 | 25.5 | 42.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.4 | 1.2 | 10.7 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -65,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,873 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.9 | 82.9 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.4 | 71.4 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | -65,702 | 60,957 | 4,745 |
| – Gross Longs: | 57,206 | 436,369 | 25,882 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 122,908 | 375,412 | 21,137 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.5 | 64.7 | 41.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.9 | -0.6 | 13.2 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,871 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.7 | 63.9 | 27.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.5 | 54.2 | 19.3 |
| – Net Position: | -2,864 | 1,564 | 1,300 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,388 | 10,254 | 4,403 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 4,252 | 8,690 | 3,103 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.4 | 45.4 | 44.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 28.8 | -21.7 | -10.7 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,061 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.4 | 89.8 | 3.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.7 | 86.2 | 1.4 |
| – Net Position: | -20,850 | 14,197 | 6,653 |
| – Gross Longs: | 25,099 | 354,008 | 12,096 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 45,949 | 339,811 | 5,443 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.8 | 76.2 | 50.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.9 | -1.5 | 13.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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