26 Mar

COT Metals Speculators pushed their Gold bullish bets to 7-week high

March 26, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

* This COT data is fully up-to-date after weeks of delays due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). The hacking incident had disrupted the ability for the CFTC to report large trader positions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Gold

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The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as three out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (18,274 contracts) with Silver (4,681 contracts) and Copper (1,805 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,047 contracts) and Palladium (-550 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets on the rise

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced this week for a second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The Gold position has gone from a total net position of +105,529 contracts on February 14th to a new 7-week high at a total of +158,605 contracts this week with the five-week total of speculator bets showing a gain of +53,076 contracts. The speculator strength score (0 to 100 range) for Gold has risen to 47 percent while the 6-week speculator strength score trend has shown a rise of 13 percent.

The Gold futures price closed below the $1,995 price level this week after touching its highest point in just about a year over the $2,014.00 threshold on Monday. Gold has gained over 20 percent since its recent low levels in early November that saw the price fall to approximately $1,618.30.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-21-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold469,87422158,60547-183,5685324,96343
Silver119,08203,46223-12,681799,21917
Copper201,63644-12,351177,536804,81549
Palladium11,64780-7,01817,369100-35121
Platinum61,416459,52638-14,141644,61530

 

Strength Scores led by Gold & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Gold (47 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Platinum (38 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (1 percent) and Copper (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (23.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.5 percent)
Copper (17.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.8 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.0 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.8 percent)

 

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for metals.

Palladium (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-40.7 percent)
Copper (-13.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.1 percent)
Platinum (-2.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-12.8 percent)
Palladium (-26.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 158,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.625.910.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.965.04.8
– Net Position:158,605-183,56824,963
– Gross Longs:237,891121,67847,624
– Gross Shorts:79,286305,24622,661
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.953.142.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.1-11.82.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 3,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.740.918.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.851.511.0
– Net Position:3,462-12,6819,219
– Gross Longs:41,32548,68522,328
– Gross Shorts:37,86361,36613,109
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.278.517.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.420.6-38.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.346.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.543.16.3
– Net Position:-12,3517,5364,815
– Gross Longs:51,09594,35317,564
– Gross Shorts:63,44686,81712,749
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.479.849.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.315.9-24.3

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.039.712.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.562.84.6
– Net Position:9,526-14,1414,615
– Gross Longs:25,19924,3997,431
– Gross Shorts:15,67338,5402,816
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.664.229.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.54.9-17.2

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.073.010.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.39.713.6
– Net Position:-7,0187,369-351
– Gross Longs:1,6338,4981,234
– Gross Shorts:8,6511,1291,585
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 17.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.620.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.925.1-3.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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