The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0036
• Prev Close: 1.0036
• % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell to -53.8 (expected -40.6, previous -28). For the Eurozone, the ZEW Index fell to 51.1 (expectation -39, previous -28). The report points out that the current serious concerns over energy supplies, the ECB interest rate hike announced, and further restrictions related to the pandemic in China have led to a significant deterioration in the economic outlook. Experts are assessing the current financial situation much more negatively than in the previous month and have lowered their unfavorable forecast for the next six months. Today the US and some European countries will publish inflation data. Analysts are predicting a further rise in consumer prices. The US consumer price index in June is expected to show an increase in inflation above the 8.6% level y/y.

• Support levels: 1.0000
• Resistance levels: 1.0185, 1.0221, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone. Still, divergence is already observed on several timeframes. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0185, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0000, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0364 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1885
• Prev Close: 1.1885
• % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said nothing new in his speech yesterday. The main theses are as follows: a sustained decline in inflation to the 2% target is the primary objective of the BoE with no “if” or “but.” The committee will be especially vigilant for signs of more sustained inflationary pressures and will respond strongly if necessary.

• Support levels: 1.1877, 1.1801
• Resistance levels: 1.2002, 1.2065, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. In contrast to the euro, the pound is showing more resilience. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2002, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1877 or 1.1801, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 9:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 137.42
• Prev Close: 136.85
• % chg. over the last day: -0.42%

The situation on the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The massive gap between the interest rates and diametrically opposite monetary policy has already led to the USD/JPY quotes having reached multi-year highs. And the situation will not change soon, so traders should not count on a reversal of the price on fundamental factors.

• Support levels: 136.48, 135.92, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
• Resistance levels: 137.12, 137.48, 138.89

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and the price continues to trend upward. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 136.48, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 137.12 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 135.93, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2995
• Prev Close: 1.3020
• % chg. over the last day: +0.19%

The Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy and interest rate meeting today. Analysts expect the Bank of Canada to raise the rate by 0.5%. Still, there is a possibility of a more aggressive 0.75% increase as recent Canadian economic data show signs of a slowdown, and inflation forecasts point to further growth in consumer prices. The increase should also be evaluated in conjunction with US inflation data, as the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends on the dollar index and oil prices.

• Support levels: 1.2988, 1.2959, 1.2934, 1.2894
• Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3113

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and there is some buying pressure. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2988 or 1.2959. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3050, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2894 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Press Conference at 18:00 (GMT+3).