COT Week 21 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed

May 28, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy was WTI Crude Oil (9,124 contracts) and Natural Gas (3,442 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (126 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-4,422 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,373 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

  • OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range
  • Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range
  • Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
May-24-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,711,863 0 334,761 11 -374,627 91 39,866 71
Gold 530,098 22 183,813 14 -211,947 82 28,134 37
Silver 146,456 13 14,103 26 -23,297 88 9,194 3
Copper 186,433 17 -19,633 28 19,288 73 345 27
Palladium 7,919 7 -3,472 2 3,800 98 -328 25
Platinum 65,824 32 1,485 5 -6,683 96 5,198 34
Natural Gas 1,107,496 6 -111,570 45 63,847 51 47,723 93
Brent 183,629 27 -39,289 45 37,488 56 1,801 34
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 729,900 28 188,368 72 -159,047 34 -29,321 21
Corn 1,544,885 29 427,848 85 -372,522 19 -55,326 11
Coffee 211,266 5 37,072 71 -38,484 34 1,412 4
Sugar 847,420 11 209,487 80 -255,450 20 45,963 65
Wheat 326,607 8 26,344 53 -24,339 25 -2,005 100

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 334,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.


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WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.7 34.1 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.1 56.0 2.7
– Net Position: 334,761 -374,627 39,866
– Gross Longs: 422,541 584,496 86,091
– Gross Shorts: 87,780 959,123 46,225
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.5 90.7 71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.5 -9.3 -8.4

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.8 52.6 3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 36.2 32.2 2.7
– Net Position: -39,289 37,488 1,801
– Gross Longs: 27,144 96,551 6,828
– Gross Shorts: 66,433 59,063 5,027
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.2 55.6 33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.0 5.9 -7.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -111,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.8 37.4 6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.9 31.6 2.4
– Net Position: -111,570 63,847 47,723
– Gross Longs: 230,219 413,701 74,555
– Gross Shorts: 341,789 349,854 26,832
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.1 51.0 93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -8.4 0.9

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 55.0 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.9 69.1 4.0
– Net Position: 32,425 -43,599 11,174
– Gross Longs: 72,517 170,888 23,596
– Gross Shorts: 40,092 214,487 12,422
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 93.4 87.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.1 6.6 16.3

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9
– Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979
– Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210
– Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 65.8 26.2 1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 93.5 0.0 0.4
– Net Position: -9,513 9,010 503
– Gross Longs: 22,645 9,010 636
– Gross Shorts: 32,158 0 133
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.1 27.9 37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 3.4 -5.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.