by JustForex
The European currency has been hit hard by the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and expectations that the European Central Bank will move slower than the Fed in raising interest rates. Yesterday, the euro declined further after reports of the cessation of Russian gas supplies under the Yamal contract to Poland.
From the technical point of view, the trend of the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Growth in the dollar index led to the fall of the European currency. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, selling pressure remains, but divergence has appeared. The price has reached the daily support level. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0632, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades should be considered from the resistance level of 1.0699, but only after the additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0870 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.
Weak retail sales and consumer confidence figures showed that higher inflation takes a toll on ordinary citizens. The pound fell on Tuesday as the Bank of England was not in the mood for an aggressive rate hike in the background, despite growing concerns about a UK economic slowdown due to high inflation.
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. Growth in the dollar index led to the fall of the British pound. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, selling pressure remains, but divergence has appeared. The price has reached the daily support level. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level 1.2670, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2585, but only after the appearance of a bullish initiative and with short targets.
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Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2981 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.
The Japanese yen rebounded slightly as investors expected the Bank of Japan to take steps to stabilize the currency, which hit a 20-year low against the dollar last week. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called on the central bank to maintain an ultra-soft monetary policy, rejecting the idea of using higher interest rates to prevent the yen from falling further.
The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become negative. The price has taken a more flat structure. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but after the price makes a pullback to the nearest support levels. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 127.24 or 126.69, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 129.36 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 125.55, the uptrend will likely be broken.
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on the oil price movements and the dollar index. The dollar index continued to rise yesterday, but oil prices jumped by more than 3%. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading slightly higher. Currently, the USD/CAD currency pair has no preconditions for a medium-term trend as growth in oil prices, together with the Bank of Canada’s plans to raise interest rates, will contribute to strengthening the Canadian dollar.
In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator remained positive, but divergence appeared. Trade is worth it only with short targets. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2745 or 1.2644, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2817, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2607, the downtrend will likely be resumed.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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