COT Energy Speculators pullback on #2 Heating Oil bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

April 2, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent decline in the Heating Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Heating Oil futures has dropped for two consecutive weeks and in three out of the past four weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -9,420 contracts over the past four weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level in six weeks. Heating Oil speculator positions are currently (+6,455 contracts) at the lower end of their range after averaging approximately +20,000 contracts each week over the whole of 2021. Heating Oil prices, meanwhile, have seen price surges (hitting multi-year highs) in the past few months due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but did retrace lower this week with a decline by approximately -8.00 percent for the week at Friday’s close.

The energy markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (11,926 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,972 contracts).

The energy markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-21,238 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-8,168 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-554 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-29-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,795,929 1 318,731 0 -360,162 99 41,431 73
Gold 574,521 39 257,596 70 -285,937 30 28,341 45
Silver 147,370 14 48,240 70 -61,372 39 13,132 19
Copper 203,692 29 30,581 64 -37,333 34 6,752 64
Palladium 6,720 1 -2,011 10 1,364 84 647 81
Platinum 61,807 25 14,001 22 -20,754 79 6,753 56
Natural Gas 1,100,690 4 -137,411 37 92,762 60 44,649 92
Brent 188,542 30 -25,220 69 21,609 29 3,611 58
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 755,139 34 206,469 81 -178,764 24 -27,705 24
Corn 1,515,106 24 482,092 92 -424,699 11 -57,393 10
Coffee 227,547 6 38,689 77 -42,092 27 3,403 12
Sugar 819,459 1 161,581 70 -202,758 30 41,177 59
Wheat 341,224 3 13,559 59 -9,435 32 -4,124 91

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 318,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 36.5 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 56.5 2.5
– Net Position: 318,731 -360,162 41,431
– Gross Longs: 420,097 654,965 85,767
– Gross Shorts: 101,366 1,015,127 44,336
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 99.4 73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.8 12.7 -3.5

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.2 44.2 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.6 32.7 2.5
– Net Position: -25,220 21,609 3,611
– Gross Longs: 38,169 83,276 8,330
– Gross Shorts: 63,389 61,667 4,719
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.9 29.2 58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.9 -1.1 -5.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -137,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,337 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 42.7 6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.1 34.3 2.2
– Net Position: -137,411 92,762 44,649
– Gross Longs: 249,135 470,232 68,418
– Gross Shorts: 386,546 377,470 23,769
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.3 60.1 92.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.8 -2.3 33.2

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 40,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.1 53.0 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 69.7 4.9
– Net Position: 40,202 -47,775 7,573
– Gross Longs: 74,554 151,056 21,630
– Gross Shorts: 34,352 198,831 14,057
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 11.0 89.2 56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.8 25.0 -15.4

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.0 50.8 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.1 60.1 6.9
– Net Position: 6,455 -32,434 25,979
– Gross Longs: 59,340 177,626 50,210
– Gross Shorts: 52,885 210,060 24,231
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.9 36.7 88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.2 -10.3 23.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 70.8 23.8 2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 97.2 0.0 0.3
– Net Position: -9,348 8,415 933
– Gross Longs: 25,002 8,415 1,022
– Gross Shorts: 34,350 0 89
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 inf to 1 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.7 25.7 52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.4 -30.9 11.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.