COT Energy Speculators pullback on #2 Heating Oil bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

April 2, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the recent decline in the Heating Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the Heating Oil futures has dropped for two consecutive weeks and in three out of the past four weeks. The spec crude position has declined by a total of -9,420 contracts over the past four weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level in six weeks. Heating Oil speculator positions are currently (+6,455 contracts) at the lower end of their range after averaging approximately +20,000 contracts each week over the whole of 2021. Heating Oil prices, meanwhile, have seen price surges (hitting multi-year highs) in the past few months due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but did retrace lower this week with a decline by approximately -8.00 percent for the week at Friday’s close.

The energy markets that saw higher speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (11,926 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,972 contracts).

The energy markets that saw lower speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-21,238 contracts), Heating Oil (-9,228 contracts), Gasoline (-8,168 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-554 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-29-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,795,9291318,7310-360,1629941,43173
Gold574,52139257,59670-285,9373028,34145
Silver147,3701448,24070-61,3723913,13219
Copper203,6922930,58164-37,333346,75264
Palladium6,7201-2,011101,3648464781
Platinum61,8072514,00122-20,754796,75356
Natural Gas1,100,6904-137,4113792,7626044,64992
Brent188,54230-25,2206921,609293,61158
Heating Oil349,618316,45552-32,4343725,97988
Soybeans755,13934206,46981-178,76424-27,70524
Corn1,515,10624482,09292-424,69911-57,39310
Coffee227,547638,68977-42,092273,40312
Sugar819,4591161,58170-202,7583041,17759
Wheat341,224313,55959-9,43532-4,12491

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 318,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 339,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.436.54.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.656.52.5
– Net Position:318,731-360,16241,431
– Gross Longs:420,097654,96585,767
– Gross Shorts:101,3661,015,12744,336
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.099.473.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.812.7-3.5

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.244.24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.632.72.5
– Net Position:-25,22021,6093,611
– Gross Longs:38,16983,2768,330
– Gross Shorts:63,38961,6674,719
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.929.258.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.9-1.1-5.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -137,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,337 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.642.76.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.134.32.2
– Net Position:-137,41192,76244,649
– Gross Longs:249,135470,23268,418
– Gross Shorts:386,546377,47023,769
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.360.192.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.8-2.333.2

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 40,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.153.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.069.74.9
– Net Position:40,202-47,7757,573
– Gross Longs:74,554151,05621,630
– Gross Shorts:34,352198,83114,057
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.089.256.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.825.0-15.4

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.050.814.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.160.16.9
– Net Position:6,455-32,43425,979
– Gross Longs:59,340177,62650,210
– Gross Shorts:52,885210,06024,231
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.936.788.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-10.323.6

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:70.823.82.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:97.20.00.3
– Net Position:-9,3488,415933
– Gross Longs:25,0028,4151,022
– Gross Shorts:34,350089
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 1inf to 111.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.725.752.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.4-30.911.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.