COT Energy Speculators boost WTI Crude Oil bullish bets for 2nd week as Oil price gains

January 22, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the renewed bullishness in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets over the past two weeks. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has jumped by over +25,000 contracts in each of the past two weeks (two-week total gain of +52,956 contracts) following eight straight weeks of declining speculator bets previously. This renewed push higher has brought the overall speculator bullish standing to its best level of the past seven weeks. The jump in WTI bets has coincided with a rise in the WTI Crude Oil prices that have reached their best levels since 2014 around the $87 per barrel threshold.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (25,276 contracts) in rising this week were Natural Gas (4,517 contracts), Gasoline (1,287 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (5,328 contracts).

The energy markets with lower speculator bets this week were Brent Crude Oil (-3,515 contracts) and Heating Oil (-1,048 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-18-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,059,564 29 385,781 32 -427,052 59 41,271 73
Gold 539,204 30 194,207 50 -221,068 50 26,861 40
Silver 148,737 15 29,700 52 -41,540 58 11,840 12
Copper 203,198 29 22,310 58 -30,538 38 8,228 73
Palladium 9,372 13 -3,309 3 3,409 96 -100 39
Platinum 57,321 17 7,229 13 -12,911 91 5,682 41
Natural Gas 1,169,188 14 -118,047 43 86,174 58 31,873 60
Brent 227,413 61 -20,206 84 17,211 18 2,995 50
Heating Oil 367,686 42 14,827 64 -39,935 29 25,108 85
Soybeans 692,022 20 128,015 62 -92,198 44 -35,817 12
Corn 1,487,858 19 388,138 80 -342,687 23 -45,451 17
Coffee 264,394 32 63,784 95 -66,937 7 3,153 10
Sugar 882,598 13 113,168 60 -127,053 44 13,885 25
Wheat 378,456 23 4,840 51 5,160 46 -10,000 54

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 385,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 360,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 36.9 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.7 57.6 3.0
– Net Position: 385,781 -427,052 41,271
– Gross Longs: 503,178 759,825 102,689
– Gross Shorts: 117,397 1,186,877 61,418
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.4 58.6 73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.2 -8.6 11.4

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -20,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.6 42.7 3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.5 35.2 2.3
– Net Position: -20,206 17,211 2,995
– Gross Longs: 42,379 97,204 8,286
– Gross Shorts: 62,585 79,993 5,291
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.7 17.9 49.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.4 0.2 -4.7

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -118,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,564 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.3 41.5 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.4 34.2 2.1
– Net Position: -118,047 86,174 31,873
– Gross Longs: 237,851 485,729 56,405
– Gross Shorts: 355,898 399,555 24,532
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.2 58.0 59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.3 -4.2 -3.0

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 60,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 49.0 6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.4 67.4 4.5
– Net Position: 60,789 -67,265 6,476
– Gross Longs: 105,959 179,287 22,808
– Gross Shorts: 45,170 246,552 16,332
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.0 69.7 50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.1 -13.2 13.6

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,875 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.3 50.5 13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.2 61.4 7.1
– Net Position: 14,827 -39,935 25,108
– Gross Longs: 59,763 185,764 51,279
– Gross Shorts: 44,936 225,699 26,171
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 64.2 28.7 85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.2 -19.8 42.8

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.6 33.8 1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.3 1.2 0.1
– Net Position: -16,277 15,708 569
– Gross Longs: 30,232 16,308 595
– Gross Shorts: 46,509 600 26
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 27.2 to 1 22.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 45.2 53.7 39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.6 -0.6 0.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.