The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1303
• Prev Close: 1.1307
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04%

Inflation in Germany increased to 5.2% in November, the highest level since June 1992, surpassing the estimate of 5%. Investors’ attention is now focused on the Eurozone inflation figure, which will be published today. Analysts expect the consumer price level in Europe to rise to 4.5%.

• Support levels: 1.1230, 1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1350, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator has become positive, there is a buyers’ initiative. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the priority change level of 1.1350. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher timeframe, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1350 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
• – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 17:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 20:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3330
• Prev Close: 1.3313
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

The UK is not going to introduce restrictions in the next 3 weeks. Business activity in the United Kingdom is gradually increasing, but the energy crisis is still putting pressure not only on businesses but also on households. Analysts are lowering their forecasts about the Bank of England rate hike, it is expected to increase by 8 basis points in December.

• Support levels: 1.3307
• Resistance levels: 1.3360, 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The price has formed a new corridor with a range of 1.3307-1.3360. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but is signaling divergence on several timeframes. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. It is important for the buyers to get the price back above the 1.3360 level, so buy trades should be considered only if the price returns to the wider 1.3360-1.3507 corridor, given the buyer’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3434 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 113.61
• Prev Close: 113.53
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

Japan’s unemployment rate in October fell to the lowest level since March. Industrial production increased for the first time in 4 months. The Japanese Yen continues to strengthen as a safe-haven currency as a new variant of the Omicron virus is much more resistant to vaccines.

• Support levels: 112.87, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 113.79, 114.48, 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed to bearish. The price confidently broke through the priority change level and consolidated lower. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. Buy positions should be considered from the support levels of the higher time frames, given the buyer’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 115.15, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2747
• Prev Close: 1.2736
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09%

Oil prices continue to decline amid news that a new variant of the Omicron virus is resistant to vaccines, adding to fears that there could be an excess of supply in the first quarter of next year. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the CAD is falling sharply against the dollar amid a drop in oil.

• Support levels: 1.2729, 1.2646, 1.2598, 1.2571, 1.2483, 1.2416, 1.2388
• Resistance levels: 1.2807

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but buyer pressure remains high. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the lower border of the flat corridor. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2).