The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1444
• Prev Close: 1.1366
• % chg. over the last day: -0.69%

Deutsche Bank is calling on the ECB to tighten its monetary policy as inflation rises. Tomorrow new data on the consumer price index in Europe will be published. The growth in inflation may be a reason for the ECB to consider reducing its bond-buying program at the next ECB meeting.

• Support levels: 1.3338
• Resistance levels: 1.1436, 1.1528, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. The Euro continues to decline against the US dollar. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but a divergence indicates a coming correction. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average, as the price has deviated strongly from the averages. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher timeframe, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1528 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
• – ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 18:10 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Barkin speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Daly speaks at 22:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3410
• Prev Close: 1.3411
• % chg. over the last day: +0.01%

Despite the growth of illnesses all over Europe, the UK is not going to introduce restrictions at the moment. Today, there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on the British labor market, so traders should keep a close eye on the currency pairs with the British pound. Amid rumors of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England, the British pound looks more stable than the euro.

• Support levels: 1.3360
• Resistance levels: 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average since the price has deviated strongly from the averages. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher timeframe, given the buyer’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3575 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 113.89
• Prev Close: 114.13
• % chg. over the last day: +0.21%

As compared to the previous quarter, Japan’s GDP decreased by 0.8% and slowed down to 3.0% in annual terms. This exceeded the expectations since the COVID-19 emergency hit entrepreneurs hard, and the global chip deficit has greatly hit the export of cars. Japan’s national currency is currently trending lower as a new stimulus package is on the way.

• Support levels: 113.79, 113.32, 112.87, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 114.29, 114.48, 115.15

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. At the moment, the price is trading in the price corridor. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone near the moving average or from the lower border of the corridor. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of higher time frames, given there is sellers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 113.32, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2541
• Prev Close: 1.2511
• % chg. over the last day: -0.24%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Yesterday, both the dollar index and oil prices increased. But oil prices increased more confidently. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair slightly decreased due to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar. Fundamentally, both the dollar index and oil quotes have an upward trend now, so USD/CAD will be traded flat in the medium term.

• Support levels: 1.2496, 1.2416, 1.2388
• Resistance levels: 1.2598, 1.2628, 1.2729

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but with signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels near the moving average. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2416 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.