The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1605
• Prev Close: 1.1578
• % chg. over the last day: -0.23%

In addition to the Fed meeting, macroeconomic data on Europe will be released today, followed by ECB head Christine Lagarde’s speech. Any hints that ECB might start reducing its stimulus program soon might temporarily strengthen the Euro. However, it should be noted that a key indicator of long-term inflation expectations in the eurozone decreased below the 1.9% level for the first time in two weeks. Therefore taking into account the conservatism of the ECB, no hawkish statements should be expected.

• Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1548, 1.1502, 1.1453
• Resistance levels: 1.1618, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. But the price managed to return above the breakdown level, which indicates a possible false break move. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. It is best to look for buy trades from the support levels of lower time frames, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:15 (GMT+2);
• – US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 14:15 (GMT+2);
• – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3660
• Prev Close: 1.3613
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34%

The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting tomorrow. Representatives of the Central Bank of England have repeated many times that Britain should take a stricter policy regarding inflation suppression, up to raising the interest rate. Therefore, there is a high probability of tightening monetary policy shortly.

• Support levels: 1.3617, 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360
• Resistance levels: 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD has changed to bearish. The MACD indicator became negative, but there are signs of sellers’ weakness in the form of divergence. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3780 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 113.97
• Prev Close: 113.94
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03%

Today, it’s a bank holiday in Japan, so the Japanese Yen will depend fully on the USD Index dynamics. If the head of Fed Jerome Powell officially confirms the beginning of “tapering,” the dollar index may sharply increase and lead to the growth of USD/JPY quotes.

• Support levels: 113.42, 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
• Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trading in a wide price corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zones on the lower time frames. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher time frame, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2371
• Prev Close: 1.2400
• % chg. over the last day: +0.23%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index slightly increased yesterday, while oil prices decreased ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes increased due to the strengthening of the US currency.

• Support levels: 1.2352, 1.2306, 1.2260
• Resistance levels: 1.2428, 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the pressure of buyers is increasing, and the price is approaching the priority change level. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels of the higher time frame. Buy trades should be considered from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2428 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).