Speculators boost RBOB Gasoline bullish bets to 20-week high

November 20, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT Energy data this week is the gains in RBOB Gasoline speculative positions. Gasoline speculator bets jumped this week by the largest one-week gain (+9,145 contracts) of the past fifty-three weeks and rose for the sixth time in ten weeks. These gains have pushed the current speculative net standing (+54,214 contracts) to its highest level of the past twenty weeks, dating back to June 29th. RBOB Gasoline futures prices, like many energy markets, have been on a strong uptrend since bottoming in early 2020 and recently hit the highest level since 2014 in October.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,057,633 18 415,785 44 -470,324 41 54,539 92
Gold 612,612 54 259,780 73 -287,539 27 27,759 48
Silver 152,404 18 45,625 68 -66,148 34 20,523 61
Copper 208,066 32 20,337 57 -30,805 38 10,468 86
Palladium 11,840 24 -2,038 7 1,976 91 62 48
Platinum 62,284 26 21,013 33 -28,225 69 7,212 63
Natural Gas 1,308,708 45 -144,620 35 98,415 62 46,205 96
Brent 199,930 39 -12,900 98 7,412 0 5,488 94
Heating Oil 380,887 26 17,029 67 -37,010 32 19,981 68
Soybeans 662,972 13 46,917 42 -4,927 65 -41,990 2
Corn 1,598,926 38 399,186 81 -340,672 23 -58,514 9
Coffee 286,343 48 66,081 97 -70,075 5 3,994 16
Sugar 906,385 21 227,389 83 -276,185 16 48,796 68
Wheat 427,786 49 36,761 78 -27,999 14 -8,762 60

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 415,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,527 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 421,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.


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WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.8 34.6 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.6 57.4 2.4
– Net Position: 415,785 -470,324 54,539
– Gross Longs: 510,169 711,066 103,722
– Gross Shorts: 94,384 1,181,390 49,183
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.4 41.5 91.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.6 -8.1 13.5

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.6 40.8 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 37.1 1.7
– Net Position: -12,900 7,412 5,488
– Gross Longs: 45,201 81,608 8,790
– Gross Shorts: 58,101 74,196 3,302
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.1 0.0 94.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 44.4 -41.4 -5.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -144,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.2 43.8 5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.3 36.2 1.6
– Net Position: -144,620 98,415 46,205
– Gross Longs: 251,501 572,761 67,164
– Gross Shorts: 396,121 474,346 20,959
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.2 to 1 3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.2 61.9 95.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.3 0.6 23.1

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.1 45.7 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.0 64.2 4.2
– Net Position: 54,214 -62,114 7,900
– Gross Longs: 108,162 153,833 22,091
– Gross Shorts: 53,948 215,947 14,191
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.3 74.9 58.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.2 -3.3 0.7

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.0 52.3 12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 62.0 7.1
– Net Position: 17,029 -37,010 19,981
– Gross Longs: 53,501 199,252 46,852
– Gross Shorts: 36,472 236,262 26,871
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.5 31.8 67.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -30.2 31.8 -32.4

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.7 37.9 1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 90.4 5.0 0.1
– Net Position: -13,973 13,252 721
– Gross Longs: 22,471 15,268 772
– Gross Shorts: 36,444 2,016 51
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 7.6 to 1 15.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.2 63.7 56.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.2 2.6 12.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.