COT Speculators lift US Dollar bullish bets higher for 19th out of 21 weeks

November 15, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This week’s reports are delayed due to last week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 9th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the US Dollar Index which continued to creep up a little higher in the past few weeks. The dollar index speculative positions edged up higher by 466 contracts this week following an increase by just 525 contracts the previous week on November 2nd. The speculator positioning had fallen for the first time in ten weeks on October 26th before these past two small bullish increases. The USD positions have been on such a roll that bullish bets have gained in nineteen out of the past twenty-one weeks (net total gains of +37,751 contracts) and reached an approximately two-year high-point on October 19th. Currently, the USD Index maintains a bullish-extreme strength index level.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-09-2021OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index57,7138435,44887-41,09565,64778
EUR678,368753,77336-32,0416728,26821
GBP186,89830-12,0936517,54840-5,45544
JPY243,08784-105,3513123,19997-17,84811
CHF51,54630-17,0434020,53454-3,49153
CAD154,720335,10459-26,6083521,50479
AUD157,26950-63,4242566,18568-2,76146
NZD43,4613112,88293-15,13972,25778
MXN164,15231-48,407145,684992,72355
RUB58,3496720,70362-22,797332,09491
BRL33,80836-15,4584815,94555-48761
Bitcoin13,82179-1,4676922301,24426

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,448 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,982 net contracts.


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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.63.713.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.274.93.2
– Net Position:35,448-41,0955,647
– Gross Longs:46,5212,1307,516
– Gross Shorts:11,07343,2251,869
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.0 to 14.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.96.378.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-15.53.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.457.512.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.862.28.2
– Net Position:3,773-32,04128,268
– Gross Longs:192,544389,82283,827
– Gross Shorts:188,771421,86355,559
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.266.721.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-0.5-2.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.954.313.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.444.916.0
– Net Position:-12,09317,548-5,455
– Gross Longs:54,004101,49224,510
– Gross Shorts:66,09783,94429,965
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.340.144.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.18.4-0.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -105,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.883.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.132.816.1
– Net Position:-105,351123,199-17,848
– Gross Longs:16,440203,04421,297
– Gross Shorts:121,79179,84539,145
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.897.311.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.319.81.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.163.027.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.223.234.1
– Net Position:-17,04320,534-3,491
– Gross Longs:4,69032,49914,095
– Gross Shorts:21,73311,96517,586
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.254.053.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.5-8.538.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 5,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.443.327.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.160.513.9
– Net Position:5,104-26,60821,504
– Gross Longs:43,96167,02142,935
– Gross Shorts:38,85793,62921,431
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.335.079.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.1-26.024.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -63,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.269.214.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.527.116.1
– Net Position:-63,42466,185-2,761
– Gross Longs:23,844108,88022,621
– Gross Shorts:87,26842,69525,382
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.068.345.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.6-28.837.9

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.226.412.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.661.27.2
– Net Position:12,882-15,1392,257
– Gross Longs:25,31211,4675,405
– Gross Shorts:12,43026,6063,148
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.97.177.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.4-7.021.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.657.93.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.130.12.0
– Net Position:-48,40745,6842,723
– Gross Longs:61,79195,0745,976
– Gross Shorts:110,19849,3903,253
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.298.654.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.012.62.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.560.07.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.212.89.4
– Net Position:-15,45815,945-487
– Gross Longs:10,64420,2752,676
– Gross Shorts:26,1024,3303,163
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 14.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.954.760.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.529.2-16.4

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.037.05.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.576.01.4
– Net Position:20,703-22,7972,094
– Gross Longs:33,85521,5702,924
– Gross Shorts:13,15244,367830
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 13.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.433.391.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.3-1.116.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.04.115.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.62.56.0
– Net Position:-1,4672231,244
– Gross Longs:9,2585662,071
– Gross Shorts:10,725343827
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.7 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.057.326.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.74.715.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.