COT Speculators drop British pound sterling bets to lowest level in 76-weeks

November 20, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 16th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT Currency data this week is the second straight decline in British pound sterling speculative positions. The pound sterling speculator contracts dropped sharply for the second consecutive week this week and have now fallen by a total of -46,646 contracts over just this two-week time period. These declines have pushed the overall speculative position into a bearish sentiment level of -31,599 contracts which marks the lowest standing of the past seventy-six weeks, dating back to June 2nd of 2020. The GBPUSD currency pair has been under pressure since the middle of October and fallen from around 1.3800 exchange rate to just above the 1.3435 level currently, a drop of almost 400 pips.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-16-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 59,387 88 34,908 86 -40,455 7 5,547 77
EUR 705,698 86 -3,826 34 -26,985 68 30,811 25
GBP 207,099 43 -31,599 51 41,182 54 -9,583 36
JPY 252,897 91 -93,126 10 115,758 94 -22,632 1
CHF 49,320 27 -8,889 54 18,767 52 -9,878 34
CAD 148,955 30 8,709 62 -26,717 35 18,008 74
AUD 166,688 57 -61,153 27 69,858 71 -8,705 31
NZD 42,945 30 13,965 95 -15,521 6 1,556 70
MXN 170,102 33 -47,655 2 46,127 99 1,528 50
RUB 52,624 58 22,625 67 -23,936 31 1,311 70
BRL 31,767 32 -15,698 48 15,743 54 -45 66
Bitcoin 13,648 78 -1,478 69 357 0 1,121 23

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,448 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.


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US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.8 3.4 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.0 71.5 3.5
– Net Position: 34,908 -40,455 5,547
– Gross Longs: 47,959 2,000 7,621
– Gross Shorts: 13,051 42,455 2,074
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.0 to 1 3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.0 7.4 77.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -2.7 -13.6

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 57.3 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.6 61.1 8.4
– Net Position: -3,826 -26,985 30,811
– Gross Longs: 198,181 404,266 90,261
– Gross Shorts: 202,007 431,251 59,450
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.8 68.1 25.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.7 -5.2 -0.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.4 61.4 11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.6 41.5 15.9
– Net Position: -31,599 41,182 -9,583
– Gross Longs: 50,443 127,197 23,322
– Gross Shorts: 82,042 86,015 32,905
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 51.2 54.0 35.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.3 9.2 -8.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.7 80.5 8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.6 34.7 17.6
– Net Position: -93,126 115,758 -22,632
– Gross Longs: 24,635 203,468 21,790
– Gross Shorts: 117,761 87,710 44,422
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 10.4 93.7 0.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.4 15.5 -4.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.2 64.2 24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.2 26.1 44.5
– Net Position: -8,889 18,767 -9,878
– Gross Longs: 5,502 31,663 12,048
– Gross Shorts: 14,391 12,896 21,926
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 54.4 52.0 34.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.9 -12.2 11.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 42.1 27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.8 60.0 15.0
– Net Position: 8,709 -26,717 18,008
– Gross Longs: 44,147 62,689 40,389
– Gross Shorts: 35,438 89,406 22,381
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 62.3 34.9 74.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 29.6 -26.4 10.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 67.2 11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.1 25.3 17.1
– Net Position: -61,153 69,858 -8,705
– Gross Longs: 30,760 112,044 19,744
– Gross Shorts: 91,913 42,186 28,449
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 71.0 31.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 27.1 -29.0 24.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,083 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 61.4 24.1 11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.9 60.2 7.8
– Net Position: 13,965 -15,521 1,556
– Gross Longs: 26,388 10,349 4,923
– Gross Shorts: 12,423 25,870 3,367
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.7 6.5 69.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -11.8 19.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.1 55.3 3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 69.2 28.2 2.2
– Net Position: -47,655 46,127 1,528
– Gross Longs: 69,984 94,074 5,245
– Gross Shorts: 117,639 47,947 3,717
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.5 98.8 49.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.5 5.6 -1.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.7 64.6 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 76.1 15.0 8.2
– Net Position: -15,698 15,743 -45
– Gross Longs: 8,468 20,507 2,545
– Gross Shorts: 24,166 4,764 2,590
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 4.3 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.6 54.4 66.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.9 19.3 -12.9

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 22,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,922 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.7 37.7 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.7 83.2 2.1
– Net Position: 22,625 -23,936 1,311
– Gross Longs: 30,357 19,849 2,418
– Gross Shorts: 7,732 43,785 1,107
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.9 30.7 70.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.2 -3.3 -20.9

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 63.4 5.0 14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 74.2 2.4 6.5
– Net Position: -1,478 357 1,121
– Gross Longs: 8,649 678 2,008
– Gross Shorts: 10,127 321 887
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 2.1 to 1 2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.7 71.4 22.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.9 -20.8 4.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.