The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.08.18

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1777
• Prev Close: 1.1708
• % chg. over the last day: -0.60%

Eurozone GDP increased in the 2nd quarter. Economists believe that the Eurozone GDP will continue its growth in Q3 despite the outbreak of the Delta strain. However, the situation is different for the European currency as the euro is inversely correlated to the dollar index. Europe will report on inflation today. Analysts tend to believe that inflation in the eurozone will rise from 1.9% to 2.2% on a year-on-year basis.

• Support levels: 1.1706, 1.1609
• Resistance levels: 1.1754, 1.1799, 1.1817, 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend on the EUR/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price decreased again; the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the sell deals from the resistance levels, where there was an initiative from the sellers. Buy trades can be considered only from the support levels and only after the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1854 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3838
• Prev Close: 1.3737
• % chg. over the last day: -0.73%

The number of employees in British companies approached pre-pandemic levels, the number of jobs increased by 182,000 in July, and wage growth hit a record high. The unemployment rate fell from 4.8% to 4.7%. But even such macroeconomic statistics did not keep the British pound from falling yesterday. The British pound is losing its positions more and more from day to day.

• Support levels: 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3802, 1.3772, 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

The trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish on the hourly time frame. But the price is close to the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, with no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for the buy trades from the priority change level. But it is better to enter with confirmation because the sellers’ pressure is very strong.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.26
• Prev Close: 109.58
• % chg. over the last day: +0.29%

Yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair increased by 0.29% amid a stronger dollar index and rebounded from the priority change level. Japan weakened quarantine restrictions after the Olympics ended, and people rushed to the stores, so business activity is expected to be positive in the next quarter. But general forecasts for the 3rd quarter indicated the slowdown of growth rates.

• Support levels: 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 110.04, 110.34, 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving average line and has reached the priority change level. The MACD indicator became positive, but the growth is unclear. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for the buy positions from the support level, where the buyers show initiative. Sell positions should be considered only on the lower timeframes from the resistance levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2565
• Prev Close: 1.2625
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48%

The Canadian dollar is very dependent on the performance of the dollar index and the oil price performance. Yesterday, oil was slightly decreased while the dollar index increased, which caused USD/CAD rally. Canada will report on inflation today. Analysts are confident that inflation in the country will remain at the same level.

• Support levels: 1.2602,1.2554, 1.2518, 1.2471, 1.2425, 1.2370, 1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2642, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1.2951

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the local trend is bullish, and the price reached the priority change level. Now the price has strongly deviated from the moving average. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for the sell positions from the resistance levels after the sellers’ initiative. Buy positions should be considered from the support levels within the local upward movement throughout the day.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).