The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.06.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2103
• Prev Close: 1.2119
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded in a narrow flat. Now the price is slowly moving up to the moving average line. So, most likely, there will be no significant volatility before the Fed meeting.

• Support levels: 1.2114, 1.2085, 1.2026, 1.2002, 1.1957
• Resistance levels: 1.2143, 1.2174, 1.2212, 1.2243, 1.2311

The sellers’ pressure remains high, and the buyers are very weak. So the best strategy for traders is to look for sell trades from resistance levels. But considering the strong deviation from the middle line, it is also possible to look for buy trades from the support levels. Though, it is better to buy on intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2212 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.4096
• Prev Close: 1.4105
• % chg. over the last day: +0.09%

The GBP/USD currency pair, same as the euro, is trading in a narrow flat. Compared to yesterday, the situation has not changed. Macroeconomic data for the British currency is positive. But there is still a factor of pandemic and quarantine restrictions. Yesterday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the prolongation of the restrictive measures for another month, until July 19.

• Support levels: 1.4110, 1.4075, 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
• Resistance levels: 1.4191, 1.4212, 1.4338

The GBP/USD currency pair trend remains bullish, as the price is above the priority change level. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving average. The MACD indicator has become inactive. But the price is right at the support level, so under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades. There are no optimal entry points for sell positions yet.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.4075 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

• – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 15:15 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.61
• Prev Close: 110.07
• % chg. over the last day: +0.42%

The price of the Japanese yen futures fell on Monday. As a result, the USD/JPY currency pair continued to grow (inverse correlation). The Japanese currency now looks very weak and depends not even on its domestic economy but on the US economy and the movement of the dollar index. This week on Friday, a big bunch of news from Japan is expected, which may change the situation.

• Support levels: 109.83, 109.63, 109.35, 109.18, 108.66, 108.44, 108.19, 107.77
• Resistance levels: 110.09 110.51, 110.73

Technically, the mid-term trend is bullish as the price is above the priority change level of 109.18. Now the price has reached the resistance level, and the MACD indicator is signaling a weak divergence. Considering the strong deviation from the moving average, there is a high probability of a small corrective move down. Traders can look for both buy trades from the nearest support levels after the correction and sell trades from resistance levels on intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.18, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2156
• Prev Close: 1.2147
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07%

On Friday, the USD/CAD currency pair broke through the priority change level, activating an alternative scenario. As a result, a new medium-term uptrend begins to form. No important statistical data from Canada is expected this week, so the price will correlate strongly with the dollar index.

• Support levels: 1.2119, 1,2096 1.2060, 1.2032, 1.1944
• Resistance levels: 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519

Technically, the trend has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the moving average, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders can look for buy trades from support levels after a small downward correction is completed.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2060 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.