The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.06.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2210
• Prev Close: 1.2126
• % chg. over the last day: -0.69%

In light of positive statistics on the US labor market, the US currency sharply strengthened on Thursday, triggering a fall of the EUR/USD currency pair (inverse correlation). The price broke through the priority change level and activated an alternative scenario. Another portion of important news and speeches is expected today, so volatility will be high.

• Support levels: 1.2115, 1.2074, 1.2026, 1.2002, 1.1957
• Resistance levels: 1.2134, 1.2168, 1.2180, 1.2212, 1.2243, 1.2311

The uptrend is broken. The price fell and broke through several support levels. The MACD indicator has become negative with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for sell trades from the support levels, but the price has strongly deviated from the moving average now, so there is likely to be a slight upward pullback.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2212 resistance level and fixes below, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

• – ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.4167
• Prev Close: 1.4099
• % chg. over the last day: -0.48%

The British pound also significantly decreased on Thursday evening. However, unlike the euro, the GBP/USD currency pair did not break the priority change level, leaving a good chance to hold the uptrend. At the moment, the British currency looks more confident than the euro.

• Support levels: 1.4075, 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
• Resistance levels: 1.4110, 1.4175, 1.4207, 1.4338

The price is trading below the moving average, and the MACD indicator has gone into the oversold zone. Despite the falling price, the GBP/USD trend remains bullish since the price is above the priority change level, which is the most important factor. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from the support levels. Intraday traders can look for sell trades within the descending momentum, but taking into account a lot of important news today, it is necessary to act extremely cautiously.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.4075 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.53
• Prev Close: 110.30
• % chg. over the last day: +0.70%

On Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair increased by 0.7%. The Japanese yen now looks extremely weak, so any strengthening of the dollar index affects the pair’s price growth.

• Support levels: 109.90, 109.28, 109.00, 108.66, 108.44, 108.19, 107.77
• Resistance levels: 110.51, 110.73

At the moment, the mid-term trend is bullish. The price is above the moving average. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone, but there are no signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from the support levels, relying on the continuation of the price growth. But given the strong deviation from the moving average, a slight pullback down is possible.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.00, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2032
• Prev Close: 1.2108
• % chg. over the last day: +0.63%

Amid a strengthening dollar, the USD/CAD currency pair also rose on Thursday. Buyers managed to hold the support level of 1.2032. Now, the price is trading near the priority change level but still within the wide corridor. Important macrostatistics from Canada are expected today.

• Support levels: 1.2032, 1.1944
• Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519

Technically, the trend remains bearish. But taking into account that the local downtrend line was broken by impulse, the current momentum is strictly bullish. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for both sell trades from the nearest resistance levels and buy trades from support levels, but only on intraday timeframes within the upward momentum. But it should be noted that the price is still inside a wide corridor of 1.2032-1.2137.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, a local corrective uptrend is likely to form.

• – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).