The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.02.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2048
• Prev Close: 1.2117
• % chg. over the last day: +0.57%.

The EUR/USD showed significant gains on Tuesday, which indicated the strength of the long-term trend. Considering the fact that the dollar index has already consolidated below the SMA50 moving average, it is possible to suggest the completion of the southern correction and the resumption of the northern trend.

• Support levels: 1.2059, 1.1952
• Resistance levels: 1.2155, 1.2189

The main scenario for trading the EUR/USD is cautious buying. Technically, the main direction is north, but not all indicators point to strong growth. The ADX started to decline during yesterday’s rally, which raised doubts about the further north movement. At the very least, consolidation or rollback is required. The MACD did not show convergence either.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2038, the pair may return to the level of 1.1951.

• – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany (m/m) (Jan) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3736
• Prev Close: 1.3812
• % chg. over the last day: +0.55%

The sterling continues to rise, gaining a foothold above the January highs against the dollar and demonstrating the most stable trend among the G10 currencies. The UK Gilts are at 0.460%, the best result since March 2020. This factor partially supports the bulls.

• Support levels: 1.3757, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3900

The main scenario for trading the GBP/USD is buying. The ADX on the growth of the pair showed a more significant reaction than on Monday and in comparison with the euro. This is an indicator of a more steady northern movement. But convergence has not yet been observed in the MACD. On the contrary, if a rollback occurs soon, a divergence will be formed and an opposite signal will appear. But as long as the price is above the moving averages, the northern trend will be observed.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3768, a correction to 1.3680 may occur.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 105.22
• Prev Close: 104.59
• % chg. over the last day: -0.61%

The yen showed the largest intraday gains among major currencies. In the absence of strong movements in stock markets and the credit market, this movement looks more like a speculative one. If we consider the H4 timeframes, we receive mixed signals. As a result, from a technical and fundamental point of view, the situation is confusing.

• Support levels: 104.40, 103.56
• Resistance levels: 105.68, 106.12

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 104.95 and 104.40. The ADX reached the oversold level and started to decline. The pair has stopped, and we observe a signal for the beginning of consolidation. A rollback to 104.95 is possible as well.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing above 104.95. In this case, the pair may rise to 105.68.

• – The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US (m/m) (Jan) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2736
• Prev Close: 1.2688
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38%

The Canadian dollar showed one of the smallest intraday gains against the dollar. It looks strange in the context of continuing growth in oil prices. Though, there are no signs of a reversal. The commodity market continues to rise which supports the bulls.

• Support levels: 1.2686, 1.2590
• Resistance levels: 1.2781, 1.2844

The main scenario is selling. All technical indicators are set to the south except for the ADX. This oscillator shows a drop in the downside potential, which indicates a possible temporary stop, or the need for a northern pullback to the area of 1.2730 – 1.2763.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2763, the pair may resume its growth to the resistance level of 1.2844 or higher.

• – The US crude oil reserves at 17:30 (GMT+2).