The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.01.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2151
• Prev Close: 1.2110
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34%.

EUR/USD has tested the support level of 1.2059 again, but without success so far. After the Fed meeting, traders will focus on GDP data, which will be released today at the beginning of the US trading session. If the performance is better than expected (more than 4.0% in the fourth quarter), the bearish pressure may increase and the price may break this level.

• Support levels: 1.2077, 1.2059
• Resistance levels: 1.2189, 1.2222, 1.2283

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. If the price fixes below the important level of 1.2059, the wave of selling may increase significantly. The MACD shows convergence towards the south. The declining ADX shows a significant increase in potential. As long as the price stays below the moving averages, short positions will be relevant.

The alternative scenario: if the price manages to fix above the level of 1.2144, the pair may move to an increase to 1.2222.

• – The US GDP (Q/Q) (Q4) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3732
• Prev Close: 1.3684
• % chg. over the last day: -0.35%

Despite the equal decline of the sterling in comparison with the euro, the British currency still holds a leading position. Wednesday’s bearish move was based solely on the appreciation of the dollar. The pound has not even reached the support level and, apparently, may remain in the weekly range.

• Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3744, 1.4386

The main scenario for trading GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3622 and 1.3701. Sterling managed to renew the highs, but there was only a puncture of the level and the price immediately reversed. The resistance is still strong. The price has consolidated below the moving averages, but the ADX is not showing an upward trend. This suggests that the decline may be limited.

The alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3701, it is likely to return to 1.3744. A breakdown at 1.3622 could trigger a further fall towards 1.3517.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 103.59
• Prev Close: 104.07
• % chg. over the last day: +0.47%

The dollar-yen currency pair surprised with quick movements after a long stagnation in a sideways range.In the face of declining stock market quotes, it becomes clear that the pair has lost the correlation with risky assets, and any movement is based only on the dollar.

• Support levels: 103.56, 103.32
• Resistance levels: 104.40, 104.76

The main scenario is buying on a decline. The ADX showed high upside potential while moving up, but has already reached the overbought zone. This indicates that a pullback from the resistance level, where the price stopped, to the moving averages around 103.90 is possible. Then growth is expected to resume.

The alternative scenario suggests the price fixing below 103.90. In this case, the pair may return to the previous trading range.

• – The US GDP (Q/Q) (Q4) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2690
• Prev Close: 1.2800
• % chg. over the last day: +0.86%

On Wednesday, the pair showed a strong upward movement, while the Canadian dollar demonstrated the largest gains against the US dollar. The price has broken through the first resistance level and is preparing to hazard the second one. On the daily chart, the price consolidated above the SMA 50, which indicated the likely development of a deep upward correction.

• Support levels: 1.2686, 1.2624
• Resistance levels: 1.2834, 1.2875

The main scenario is buying. The ADX is showing growth, and the oscillator is still far from the overbought level. This indicates the likelihood of a further upward movement without a rollback of about 40-60 points.

The alternative scenario: if the price can gain a foothold below 1.2748, the pair may return to 1.2686.

• – The US GDP (Q/Q) (Q4) at 15:30 (GMT+2).