by JustForex
EUR/USD continued its growth on Monday, adding 0.25%, but it takes it slow to break through the maximum of this month at the level of 1.2272. Low liquidity reduces volatility shortly before the holidays. Traders refrain from opening new deals, which may even cause a correction.
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is buying on a decline. The bullish signal strengthened after the break-through of the upper border of the triangle. Thus, the pair confirmed its bullish intentions. Other indicators also point to growth. The moving averages have rebuilt and demonstrated a north direction. The ADX indicates high trend potential.
Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2208, it is possible that the price will move further to 1.2130, and a break-through of the last point may signal a complete reversal.
It may seem paradoxical, but after the news about the readiness to reach a deal, the sterling decreased. It seems that investors fully appreciated the availability of an agreement between the two parties in advance and will now focus on economic problems. Britain will start the new year with problems in the economy, which may worsen after the official withdrawal from the European bloc.
The main scenario is selling on growth. Technical specifications are now mixed. The upward momentum has slowed down. The pair is stuck between the two moving averages SMA 50 and SMA 100. The MACD moved into the negative zone, but the ADX still indicates the presence of bulls in the currency pair. The trend potential oscillator doesn’t react to a decline. The “double top” pattern is a strong sign of a possible departure of the currency pair for compensation.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes above 1.3523, the southern scenario is likely to reverse and the pair can reach 1.3623.
The break-through of the maxima on the stock markets helped the bulls to overcome the first resistance at 103.73. But it hasn’t yet managed to fix. The currency pair continues to fluctuate around 103.50, showing no particular signs of movement in this or other direction. Technical indicators point to the unlikely development of both the northern and southern scenarios.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range. Signs of a narrow rising channel are emerging but are not yet convincing. The ADX stopped responding to the movement of the pair, and the MACD returned to zero values. Most likely, the instrument will continue to show low volatility and remain within the range of 103.90 – 103.50.
An alternative scenario assumes a break-through of 103.26 and the development of a further fall. In case of breaking 103.73, further growth to 104.15 or higher is possible.
On Monday, the trading session brought the pair a symbolic 0.04% on a slight decline in oil prices. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ decision on oil production, so the Brent and WTI quotations slightly decreased.
The main scenario is risk-averse selling. The daily candle has left shadows above and below, which provides equal signals to bulls and bears. The MACD is near zero. But the moving averages indicate a resumption of the southern scenario. The same is observed on the ADX oscillator – an increase in the potential of the southern trend. In this regard, there is a possibility of renewed bearish sentiment. The signal will strengthen with the break-through of 1.2789.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to return above 1.2858, the pair may resume the upward correction.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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