by JustForex
On Wednesday, EUR/USD demonstrated positive dynamics amid progress in the Brexit negotiations. The negative statistics from the United States also supported the bullish sentiment in the euro. The yield of German Bonds bounced off the annual minimums around -0.600% and returned to the previous range, reaching -0.530% at the moment. Today the European market is partially closed. The foreign exchange market will have an early close.
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is buying on a decline. The positive background from the political side supports the pair of bulls. Technical indicators are giving a weak northern signal. The ADX indicates a slight upward pressure. The MACD is just above zero. Anyway, the pair failed to fix above the moving averages. In view of the early closure, trading in a narrow sideways range can be expected, but there is little priority for buying.
Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2180, it is possible that the price will move further to 1.2230, and the breakdown of the last point may signal a complete reversal.
On Wednesday, the sterling returned all losses within the week. The unexpected news of readiness to conclude a deal between the EU and Britain reassured investors. The pound demonstrated the strongest intraday growth dynamics over the past month. The dynamics of changes in the profitability of Gilts began to show signs of a trend reversal, and medium-term growth was outlined.
The main trading scenario for GBP/USD is buying on a decline. The pair may not have time to continue its growth today due to low liquidity, but this doesn’t withdraw the strategy. All indicators are set for continued growth. The ADX shows a significant increase in trend potential after yesterday’s impulse. The MACD has fixed in the positive area and indicates convergence.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3430, the northern scenario is likely to be canceled and the pair will be stuck in the range again.
USD/JPY currency pair is trading with extremely low volatility. The growth of stock indices and bond yields could not bring the pair back to growth, although the news feed is positive for the currency pair. In conditions of low liquidity, it is difficult to expect the development of any dynamics today.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range. The ADX is showing insignificant bullish pressure. The growth is also indicated by the price fixing above the moving averages. But all signals are very weak. The price is likely to continue fluctuating in the area of 103.26 – 103.70.
An alternative scenario assumes a breakdown of 103.26 and the development of a further fall. In case of breaking 103.93, further growth is possible.
On Wednesday, USD/CAD unexpectedly changed its tactics and went downward. Oil quotes showed a return to growth amid negative dynamics in the US oil reserves. Weekly stocks of distillates, according to the EIA, decreased by 2.325 million barrels. Today the economic calendar is empty and the commodity market will close early. You shouldn’t expect high volatility.
The main scenario: range trading. The pair may not even be able to go above the moving average of around 1.2875. The ADX practically did not react to the decline, which indicates a possible false movement. The MACD has consolidated in the negative zone. As a result, a signal was received to cancel purchases in the medium term, but without returning to sales.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to return below 1.2787, the southern trend may resume.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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