Will Gold bulls sustainably recapture 1,900 USD soon?

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events October 07, 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

Gold saw a solid start into the week, pushing back above the 1,900 USD mark.

One reason might be the “mixed” jobs report from last Friday. The report showed that the US economy generated 661k jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9%.

While a falling unemployment rate is usually a positive sign, the truth is that out of more than 22 million jobs lost in March and April due to the Corona lockdown only around 11.3 million have been recovered so far.

That in mind, we are convinced that the FED has no other choice than to act and start ballooning its balance sheet again, thus financing the needed Corona relief package which Democrats and Republicans need to deliver.

When looking at recent data from the Commitment of Traders Report, we can possibly see why large speculators have increased their bullish Gold bets over the past week again, potentially in anticipation of such an inevitable move from the FED and the US government.

But before we get overly optimistic, the daily chart continues to paint a short-term bearish picture as long as we trade below 1,975 USD.

In fact, bears consider the region around 1,900/920 USD as a potential short-trigger against which another run to as low as 1,800 USD remains an option:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between May 23, 2019, to October 06, 2020). Accessed: October 06, 2020, at 10:00 PM GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, and in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that in five years, it was up by 28%.

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