France reenters medical marijuana industry after more than a half-century hiatus – a cannabis historian explains

By David A. Guba, Jr., Bard Early College Baltimore 

– Early in 2022, the French legislature greenlighted the cultivation of cannabis inside French territory to supply the nation’s ongoing pilot program in medical marijuana. The clinical trials were launched in March 2021 with cannabis supplied from abroad and have been overseen by the country’s food and drug office, the Agence Nationale de Sécurité du Médicament, or the National Agency for the Safety of Medicines and Health Products.

This two-year pilot program consists of 3,000 patients in France using medical cannabis, something that’s been prohibited since 1953.

While the agency has praised the pilot program for its groundbreaking efforts to produce “the first French data on the efficiency and safety” of cannabis for medical therapies to treat cancers, nerve damage and epilepsy, the trial is not the nation’s first foray into the medical cannabis industry. Far from it.

‘A drug not to be neglected’

I am a historian of cannabis and colonialism in modern France. My research has found that in the middle 19th century, Paris functioned as the epicenter of an international movement to medicalize hashish, a THC-rich intoxicant made from the pressed resin of cannabis plants.

Many pharmacists and physicians then working in France believed hashish was a dangerous and exotic intoxicant from the “Orient” – the Arab Muslim world – that could be tamed by pharmaceutical science and rendered safe and useful against the era’s most frightening diseases.

Starting in the late 1830s, some of those same pharmacists and physicians began preparing and selling hashish-infused edibles, lozenges and later tinctures – hashish-infused alcohol – and even “medicinal cigarettes” for asthma in pharmacies across the country.

Throughout the 1840s and 1850s, dozens of French pharmacists staked their careers on hashish, publishing dissertations, monographs and peer-reviewed articles on its medicinal and scientific benefits.

Hôtel de Lauzun, the meeting place for the Club des Hachichins in Paris.
Louis Édouard Fournier

French epidemiologist Louis-Rémy Aubert-Roche published a treatise in 1840 in which he argued that hashish, administered as a small edible called “dawamesk” taken with coffee, successfully cured plague in seven of 11 patients he treated in the hospitals of Alexandria and Cairo during the epidemic of 1834-35. Aubert-Roche was an anti-contagionist in the era before the germ theory – the idea that microbes can lead to disease – became scientific dogma. He, like most physicians then, believed the plague to be an untransmittable disease of the central nervous system spread to humans via “miasma,” or bad air, in unhygienic and poorly ventilated areas.

Aubert-Roche thus believed, mistaking symptom relief and luck for a cure, that hashish intoxication excited the central nervous system and counteracted the effects of the plague. “The plague,” he wrote, “is a disease of the nerves. Hashish, a substance that acts upon the nervous system, has given me the best results. I thus believe it is a drug not to be neglected.”

Reefer madness

Physician Jacques-Joseph Moreau de Tours, organizer of the infamous Club des Hachichins in Paris during the 1840s, likewise heralded dawamesk as a homeopathic wonder drug for treating mental illness. Moreau believed insanity was caused by lesions on the brain, and he also believed that hashish counteracted the effects.

Moreau reported in his 1845 work, “Du Hachisch et l’aliénation mentale” (“On Hashish and Mental Illness”), that between 1840 and 1843, he cured seven patients suffering from mental illness at Hôpital Bicêtre in central Paris with hashish. Moreau wasn’t totally off-base; today cannabis-based medicines are prescribed for depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder and bipolar disorders.

Despite the small sample size, doctors from the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Italy published favorable reviews of Moreau’s work with hashish during the late 1840s and across the 1850s. One praised it as a “discovery of much importance for the civilized world.”

Tincture wars

Though physicians in France and abroad touted dawamesk as a miracle cure, they also complained about the inability to standardize doses due to the variation in the potency of different cannabis plants. They also wrote about the challenges posed by the common adulteration of dawamesk, which was exported from North Africa and often laced with other psychoactive plant extracts.

In the early 1830s, several physicians and pharmacists in the British Empire attempted to solve these problems by dissolving hashish in alcohol to produce a tincture. By the middle of the decade, French practitioners followed suit. They developed and marketed their own hashish tinctures for French patients. One pharmacist in Paris, Edmond de Courtive, branded his concoction “Hachischine” after the infamous Muslim assassins often associated with hashish in French culture.

The popularity of hashish tincture grew rapidly in France during the late 1840s, peaking in 1848. That was when pharmacist Joseph-Bernard Gastinel and the aforementioned De Courtive engaged in a legal battle over the patent – then known as the “right to priority” – for a tincture manufactured though a particular distillation method. “L’Affaire Gastinel,” as the press termed it, or The Gastinel Affair, caused an uproar in French medical circles and occupied the pages of journals and newspapers in Paris for much of that fall.

To defend his patent, Gastinel sent two colleagues to argue his case to the Academy of Medicine in October 1848. One, a physician called Willemin, claimed that not only did Gastinel devise the tincture distillation method in question but that his tincture provided a cure for cholera, also thought to be a disease of the nerves.

Though Willemin was unable to convince the Academy of Gastinel’s right to priority, he did convince doctors in Paris to adopt hashish tincture as a treatment against cholera.

Physicians in Paris didn’t have to wait long to test Willemin’s theory. A cholera epidemic erupted in the city’s outskirts just months later. But when hashish tincture failed to cure the nearly 7,000 Parisians killed by the “blue death,” doctors increasingly lost faith in the wonder drug.

In the following decades, hashish tincture fell into disrepute as the medical theories of anti-contagionism that underpinned the drug’s use against the plague and cholera gave way to the germ theory and thus a new understanding of epidemic diseases and their treatment. During the same period, physicians in French Algeria increasingly pointed to hashish use as a key cause of insanity and criminality among indigenous Muslims, a diagnosis they termed “folie haschischique,” or hashish-induced psychosis. Heralded as a wonder drug only decades before, by the end of 19th century the drug was rebranded as an “Oriental poison”.

Lessons for today

Hemp field near Toulouse.
Olybrius, CC BY-SA

In my view, these earlier efforts to medicalize hashish in 19th-century France offer doctors, public health officials and policymakers of today several important insights as they work to return cannabis-based medications to the French market.

First, they must aim to dissociate cannabis intoxicants and medicines from colonial notions of “Oriental” otherness and Muslim violence that ironically underpinned both the rise and fall of hashish as medicine in France during the 19th century. As scholar Dorothy Roberts astutely argued in her 2015 TED Talk, “race medicine is bad medicine, poor science and a false interpretation of humanity.”

As I see it, doctors and patients should also temper their expectations of the benefits of medicinal cannabis and not overpromise and then deliver lackluster results, as happened with hashish tincture during the cholera outbreak of 1848-49.

And they should be mindful that medical knowledge unfolds historically and that staking the new career of cannabis as medicine on contested theories could hitch the drug’s success to the wrong horse, as happened with hashish after the obsolescence of anti-contagionism in the 1860s.

But if France were to engage its colonial past, reform its prohibitionist policies and continue to open up legal room for medical and recreational cannabis, I believe perhaps it could again become a global leader in this new medical marijuana movement.

This is an updated version of a piece that was published on Sept. 24, 2019.The Conversation

About the Author:

David A. Guba, Jr., Assistant Professor of History, Bard Early College Baltimore

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Why isn’t EURUSD below parity … yet?

By ForexTime 

First, allow me to confess: I wasn’t expecting to write this article about EURUSD parity so soon.

When I published my Q3 outlook a couple of weeks ago, there was a 72.5% chance that EURUSD would hit 1.000 sometime this quarter.

Even with such elevated odds back then, I still thought this post-parity article wouldn’t be due for another few weeks.

But here we are.

Just as a quick reminder, the stunning decline in the world’s most popular currency pair, sinking to levels not seen in two decades, only underscores the divergence between the Eurozone and the US.

Here’s a recap from the June 30th article:

  • The US economy’s healthier outlook relative to the Eurozone’s.
    After all, there’s still the Russia-Ukraine war raging off to the latter’s eastern borders.

    UPDATE: The June US nonfarm payrolls report released last Friday (July 8th) showed a still-resilient jobs market in the world’s largest economy.

 

  • The Fed’s plans for more incoming rate hikes appears to be less risky than the European Central Bank’s.
    The ECB is just only getting started, with two rate hikes slated for Q3.
    But markets fear that the incoming ECB hikes could inadvertently result in a sovereign debt crisis/fragmentation risks.

    UPDATE: Following yesterday’s higher-than-expected June US CPI print of 9.1% (its highest in over 40 years, since November 1981) markets have since begun to expect a historic 100 basis point hike by the Fed at its upcoming policy decision due July 27th.

 

But why hasn’t EURUSD broken below parity, yet?

One word: options.

At least that’s what market chatter is pointing to.

Without getting into the weeds of the derivatives market and what “options” are, the idea is that EURUSD is being “defended” at the psychologically-important 1.0000 mark by traders who are trying their utmost best from having to pay up on financial contracts if that proverbial line in the sand is crossed.

Also, it’s tough to get a true headline figure as to how many billions worth of such options are in play at present, given the OTC (over the counter) nature of such contracts, yet they appear to have done the job so far in defending EURUSD parity over recent sessions, at least at the time of writing.

Still, such a defence can only be mounted for so long, given the fundamentally-driven selling pressures on the euro listed above.

 

So where to next for EURUSD?

If the 1.000 mark gives way, the next notable area of “defense” (i.e. support level) for EURUSD may arrive at 0.985, where another large chunk of options are congregated.

After that, euro bears could then send EURUSD towards the 0.950 mark.

 

Overall, given that there are multiple tranches of such options that may need to be defended between parity and 0.95, EURUSD may only see a grinding path towards lower levels, as opposed to the rapid declines from 1.15 to 1.000 that we’ve witnessed so far this year.

 

 

Still, EURUSD could be due for an immediate technical rebound, given that its 14-day relative strength index has gone below the 30 threshold that signals oversold conditions, .

 

Key event to look out for:

Beside the upcoming ECB and Fed respective July policy meetings due in the next couple of weeks, a major immediate risk for the euro pertains to the Nordstream 1 pipeline.

As noted in our Week Ahead article posted last Friday, this underwater gas pipeline from Russia to Germany is undergoing maintenance since last Monday through July 21st.

Markets fear that Russia may not restart this pipeline once maintenance has been completed.

Already, the likes of French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has warned of such a scenario, should Russia retaliate against sanctions, warning that the continent must prepare contingency plans (such as rationing).

Such a apocalyptic event would spark an energy crisis in Europe, and further darken its economic outlook by making a recession all but certain. That could even send EURUSD careening past 0.95!

 

If that happens, even a hawkish-sounding ECB later this month may not be able to significantly support the ailing bloc currency, barring direct interventions to support the currency like it did back in 2000 (when EURUSD fell to the depths of 0.823 in October 2020).

 

Can EURUSD stage a rebound?

From a fundamental perspective, hopes for a sustained rebound in the euro would have to be underpinned by:

  • inflation having peaked and is turning over
  • Russia-Ukraine war abating
  • recovering Eurozone economy

It’s hard imaging the above-mentioned factors materialising anytime soon.

Hence, the euro is expected to maintain a downward bias against the US dollar (with the latter benefitting from its safe haven status and its higher yields versus Eurozone bond yields).

 

As things stand, here’s what markets are forecasting for EURUSD:

  • 0.985 = 75% chance of that level reached sometime this quarter (Q3 2022)
  • 0.950 = 55% chance of that level reached within the next 12 months

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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 14.07.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside correctional target may be the resistance level at 1770.50. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may continue falling to reach 1710.50 without any pullbacks.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern during the pullback. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of another descending impulse. In this case, the downside target may be at 0.6055. After that, the asset may break the support level and continue moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 0.6165 first and then resume the descending tendency.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the support level. At the moment, the pair may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside correctional target may be the resistance area at 1.1930. Later, the market may rebound from this level and resume falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may fall to reach the support level at 1.1730 without any corrections.

GBPUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 14.07.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the support level. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen, at 1.0055 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9765. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.0265. In this case, the pair may continue to grow towards 1.0355.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen, at 1.1865, and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1495. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2145. In this case, the pair may continue to grow towards 1.2235.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD continues rebounding from the resistance level. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Kijun-Sen, at 0.6125 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.5965. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6260. In this case, the pair may continue to grow towards 0.6350.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.14

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0037
  • Prev Close: 1.0057
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

US inflation has beaten analysts’ expectations. The US consumer price index reached 9.1% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 8.8%. It is the highest rate since 1981. Last month’s gain was 1.3%. The Core Index (which excludes food and energy prices) reached 5.9%, with 5.7% expected. On a monthly basis, the Core CPI rose by 0.7%. European countries also saw an increase in consumer prices. Over the past month, inflation in Germany increased by 0.1%, in France by 0.7%, and in Spain by 1.5% to 10.2% on an annualized basis. Such data has hit confidence that the pace of slowing inflation in the future will be challenging. In his speech yesterday, FOMC spokesman Bostic said that a 100 basis point rate hike is also being considered by the Committee. There is a growing possibility that the ECB will also consider a 0.5% hike, although Fed Chair Christine Lagarde has argued several times that the first hike will be 0.25%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0147, 1.0221, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the divergence is already observed in several timeframes. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0147, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0000, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0284 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.07.14:
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1884
  • Prev Close: 1.1889
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

UK GDP unexpectedly showed a 0.5% growth in the last month, overlapping the decrease over the previous three months. Experts had expected a decline of 0.2%. At the same time, the Industrial Production Index had grown by 0.9% (expected -0.1%), while manufacturing production had added 1.5% (expected -0.6%). Such positive sentiment gave confidence to the pound sterling.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1801
  • Resistance levels: 1.1887, 1.2002, 1.2065, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.1887, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1801, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 136.86
  • Prev Close: 137.37
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.35%

The situation on the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The huge gap between the interest rates and diametrically opposed monetary policy has already caused USD/JPY quotes to reach multi-year highs. There were suggestions that the Bank of Japan would be forced to intervene to strengthen the currency or adjust its control of the yield curve, but no such action has been taken. Japan’s central authorities are still pushing for a weaker currency. And the situation will not change soon, so traders should not count on a price reversal based on fundamental factors.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 137.44, 137.12, 136.48, 135.92, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
  • Resistance levels: 138.89

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive, the buyer’s pressure has increased, and the price continues an upward trend. But there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered within a day from the support level of 137.44, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 138.89 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 135.93, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.07.14:
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3019
  • Prev Close: 1.2978
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.31%

The Canadian dollar strengthened after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, surprising markets with the most significant increase since 1998. The Bank of Canada said in a statement that inflation in Canada remains more resilient than the Bank expected in its April monetary policy report and is likely to stay around 8% for the next few months. The Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow 3.5% in 2022, 1.75% in 2023, and 2.5% in 2024. Economic activity is slowing as global growth slows and monetary policy tightens. The outlook for prices suggests that inflation will begin to decline later this year, dropping to about 3% by the end of next year and returning to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2959, 1.2934, 1.2894
  • Resistance levels: 1.3001, 1.3050, 1.3113

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. But there are signs of interception of the initiative. The price is trading below the moving averages, and there is slight pressure from the sellers. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2959, but with confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3001, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2894 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Inflation continues to skyrocket. The Bank of Canada surprised markets with an ultra-aggressive rate hike

By JustForex

Stock indices reacted to the news on US inflation data with a sharp drop. By the close of the Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.67%, while S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.45%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.15% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices were down. The gap in the yield curve inversion between 2-year and 10-year bonds reached 25 points yesterday, which also is negative for the stock market and the economy.

The US inflation has significantly beaten analysts’ expectations. The US consumer price level reached 9.1% in annual terms, compared to expectations of 8.8%. It is the highest rate since 1981. Last month’s gain was 1.3%. The Core Index (which excludes food and energy prices) reached 5.9% y/y, with 5.7% expected. Monthly, the core CPI rose by 0.7%. Such data took a big hit to confidence in the pace of slowing inflation going forward. At the moment, interest rate hikes from the Fed are not giving results, but it is worth realizing that the effect of a rate hike comes with a time lag. Much of the rise in inflation was driven by gasoline prices, which rose 11.2% MoM. Electricity increased by 0.7%, and health care costs also went up by 0.7%. Meanwhile, the White House website released a statement from Joe Biden indicating that the inflation data did not reflect the full impact of the 30-day decline in gas prices, which has seen fuel prices fall by about 40 cents since mid-June. Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic said Wednesday that higher-than-expected inflation in June could require policymakers to consider a 100 basis point hike at the next meeting.

Investors are now worried that the Fed may revise its plans to raise rates by 100 basis points at once, as the Bank of Canada did yesterday, which also surprised traders. The Bank of Canada said in a statement that inflation in Canada remains more resilient than the Bank expected in its April monetary policy report and is likely to stay around 8% for the next few months. While global factors such as the war in Ukraine and ongoing supply disruptions have been major drivers, pressure on domestic prices due to excess demand is becoming more prominent. More than half of the components that make up the CPI have increased by more than 5%. With this expansion in price pressures, the Bank’s core inflation indicators have increased. The Bank expects the Canadian economy to grow 3.5% in 2022, 1.75% in 2023, and 2.5% in 2024. Economic activity is slowing as global growth slows and monetary policy tightens. The July forecast suggests that inflation will begin to decline later this year, dropping to about 3% by the end of next year and returning to the 2% target by the end of 2024. Global energy prices are also projected to decline.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.16%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.73%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.87%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.74%.

European countries also saw an increase in consumer prices. Over the last month, the inflation rate in Germany rose by 0.1%, in France, the CPI increased by 0.7%, and in Spain, inflation jumped by 1.5% to 10.2% on an annualized basis. The European currency continues to suffer as the region faces an energy crisis caused by sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The European Central Bank faces a dilemma: let the euro fall further, spurring already record-high inflation, or fight back by raising interest rates more quickly, adding to the damage to an economy already suffering heavily from high energy prices.

Oil prices increased for the first time in three days but remained below $100 a barrel. US government data showed the largest weekly oil inventories since the beginning of the year. Given the growth in stocks and at the expense of aggressive interest rate hikes by global banks, analysts predict a decline in oil prices in the coming months.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.22%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.23% on the day.

China’s exports rose by 17.9% in June from a year earlier, beating analysts’ expectations as the economy tries to regain lost momentum due to extensive COVID blockages and supply chain problems, while imports increased by 1.0%, data showed Wednesday.

Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 3.8% to 3.5%, with the number of unemployed falling by 54.3 thousand. A strong labor market with high inflation gives the central bank room to raise interest rates more aggressively.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,801.78 −17.02 (−0.45%)

Dow Jones (US30) 30,772.79 −208.54 (−0.67%)

DAX (DE40) 12,756.32 −149.16 (−1.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,156.37 −53.49 (−0.74%)

USD Index 107.99 −0.08 (−0.08%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

U.S. inflation hits NEW 40-year high: Investors need perspective to see opportunity

By George Prior

As U.S. inflation sets a fresh 40-year high, investors should capitalize on likely panic-selling, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The bullish message from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as inflation in the U.S., measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), soared to its highest level in four decades at 9.1% on a yearly basis in June from 8.6% in May, according to the data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday.

He notes: “This figure came in higher than the market expectation of 8.8%.

“The headline-grabbing 9.1% is likely to send markets into a temporary tailspin as it will fuel investors’ fears about an aggressive tightening response from the Federal Reserve.

“Many will be jittery about a potential rate move of 100bps at the end of this month by the U.S. central bank.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Despite the noise, I would urge investors to maintain perspective.

“They should remember that this is backward-looking and puts in the spotlight high gas prices from June that are now coming down, along with many other prices that have also seen a drop since then.”

Should investors manage to maintain a “legitimate sense of perspective,” says Nigel Green, this could be a good time to top-up portfolios.

“As markets continue to be unsteady in the near-term, investors will be using the downturn to their financial advantage by topping-up their portfolios with quality stocks at lower prices.

“The panic-selling will create some important long-term opportunities with high upside potential and low risk possibilities for those who buy judiciously.

“Whilst you may be tempted to stash cash during periods of volatility, experience demonstrates that such attempts to ‘time the market’ almost always fail.

“You should resist complacency, be active, revise and adjust with an adviser to build a resilient and dynamic portfolio, perhaps with some less-traditional, return-enhancing assets.”

Nigel Green concludes: “This is an ideal time to seriously build your wealth by remaining fully and wisely invested and growing your investment portfolios.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.07.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has finished the descending wave at 0.9999. Possibly, today the pair may correct to test 1.0090 from below and then fall towards 0.9994. Later, the market may start another correction up to 1.0111 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 0.9975.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Having completed the descending wave at 1.1807, GBPUSD is expected to correct to test 1.1922 from below and may later resume falling towards 1.1801. After that, the instrument may start another correction up to 1.1930, and then resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 1.1790.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the correctional structure at 136.60; right now, it is growing towards 137.45. Later, the market may start another decline towards 136.26 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 137.87.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After reaching the short-term upside target at 0.9855, USDCHF is expected to correct down to 0.9786. Later, the market may start a new growth with the first target at 0.9977.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has finished the descending wave at 0.6710; right now, it is correcting up to 0.6779. After that, the instrument may resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 0.6690.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is still correcting; it has already reached the short-term target at 99.50 and may later grow to test 104.00 from below. After that, the instrument may fall towards 98.75, and then resume trading upwards with the target at 110.60.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues falling towards 1722.22. After that, the instrument may correct up to 1768.00, and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1700.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The S&P index has completed the descending structure at 3813.6. Today, the asset may resume growing to break 3948.4 and then continue trading upwards with the short-term target at 4040.0.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 13.07.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

The BTC had been falling for four consecutive trading sessions and today is finally trying to rise. Again. The asset is balancing at $19,489.

The current technical picture shows that the global market pressure and tension, which are very difficult to overcome, are pushing the BTC down to support levels at $19,300-$19,400. If bears break them, the asset may drop to $16,000 or even $12,500. What happens next depends on market activity and liquidity: if there is little money and orders, the price will go down fast and deep.

The BTC remains highly correlated with S&P 500 and NASDAQ. The US stock market has been selling week-to-date. Investors aren’t as emotional as they might have been, but they continue to sell. It’s bad for BTC.

Celsius paid off the debts

Celsius Network paid off its debts to the DeFi protocol Aave, $63.5 million. Earlier, Celsius found itself in dire straits and had to make a decision to put all operations with client accounts on hold. It happened amid a global crypto decline and a deterioration in market conditions.

Vauld is short of dough

As for Vauld, a Singapore platform, the situation is quite opposite – the hard times have just started. The crypto platform asked the court to put a debt moratorium. The company is $70 million shy of paying off its debts. Just like Celsius, Vauld has been experiencing difficulties after the BTC, ETH, and UST started falling.

Binance might be slapped with US secondary sanctions

Seven Iranian crypto traders said that they were using Binance until September 2021 despite the ban introduced in 2018. It turned out to be possible because clients could register using only their email addresses. Iranian traders had been working with Binance until the platform started checking users. Now Binance might be slapped with US sanctions, which might cast a shadow over its business reputation.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.13

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0036
  • Prev Close: 1.0036
  • % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator fell to -53.8 (expected -40.6, previous -28). For the Eurozone, the ZEW Index fell to 51.1 (expectation -39, previous -28). The report points out that the current serious concerns over energy supplies, the ECB interest rate hike announced, and further restrictions related to the pandemic in China have led to a significant deterioration in the economic outlook. Experts are assessing the current financial situation much more negatively than in the previous month and have lowered their unfavorable forecast for the next six months. Today the US and some European countries will publish inflation data. Analysts are predicting a further rise in consumer prices. The US consumer price index in June is expected to show an increase in inflation above the 8.6% level y/y.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0185, 1.0221, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone. Still, divergence is already observed on several timeframes. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0185, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0000, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0364 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.07.13:
  • – Eurozone German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1885
  • Prev Close: 1.1885
  • % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said nothing new in his speech yesterday. The main theses are as follows: a sustained decline in inflation to the 2% target is the primary objective of the BoE with no “if” or “but.” The committee will be especially vigilant for signs of more sustained inflationary pressures and will respond strongly if necessary.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1877, 1.1801
  • Resistance levels: 1.2002, 1.2065, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. In contrast to the euro, the pound is showing more resilience. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2002, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1877 or 1.1801, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.07.13:
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 9:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 137.42
  • Prev Close: 136.85
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.42%

The situation on the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The massive gap between the interest rates and diametrically opposite monetary policy has already led to the USD/JPY quotes having reached multi-year highs. And the situation will not change soon, so traders should not count on a reversal of the price on fundamental factors.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 136.48, 135.92, 135.40, 134.64, 134.11
  • Resistance levels: 137.12, 137.48, 138.89

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and the price continues to trend upward. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 136.48, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 137.12 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 135.93, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2995
  • Prev Close: 1.3020
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.19%

The Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy and interest rate meeting today. Analysts expect the Bank of Canada to raise the rate by 0.5%. Still, there is a possibility of a more aggressive 0.75% increase as recent Canadian economic data show signs of a slowdown, and inflation forecasts point to further growth in consumer prices. The increase should also be evaluated in conjunction with US inflation data, as the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends on the dollar index and oil prices.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2988, 1.2959, 1.2934, 1.2894
  • Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3113

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and there is some buying pressure. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2988 or 1.2959. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3050, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2894 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.07.13:
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Press Conference at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.