InvestMacro

One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a spectacular failure

By John Hawkins, University of Canberra

A year ago, El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender – alongside the US dollar, which the Central American country adopted in 2001 to replace its own currency, the colón.

President Nayib Bukele, a cryptocurrency enthusiast, promoted the initiative as one that would deliver multiple economic benefits.

Making Bitcoin legal tender, he said, would attract foreign investment, generate jobs and help “push humanity at least a tiny bit into the right direction”.

His ambitions extended to building an entire “Bitcoin city” – a tax-free haven funded by issuing US$1 billion in government bonds. The plan was to spend half the bond revenue on the city, and the other half on buying Bitcoin, with assumed profits then being used to repay the bondholders.

Now, a year on, there’s more than enough evidence to conclude Bukele – who has also called himself “the world’s coolest dictator” in response to criticisms of his creeping authoritarianism – had no idea what he was doing.

This bold financial experiment has proven to be an almost complete failure.

Making Bitcoin legal tender

Making Bitcoin legal tender meant much more than allowing Bitcoin to be used for transactions. That was already possible, as it is in most (but far from all) countries.

If a Salvadoran wanted to pay for something in bitcoins, and the recipient was willing to accept them, they could.

But Bukele wanted more. Making bitcoins legal tender meant a payee had to accept them. As the 2021 legislation stated, “every economic agent must accept Bitcoin as payment when offered to him by whoever acquires a good or service”.

To encourage Bitcoin uptake, the government created an app called “Chivo Wallet” (“chivo” is slang for “cool”) to trade bitcoins for dollars without transaction fees. It also came preloaded with US$30 as a bonus (the median weekly income is about US$360).

Yet despite the law and these incentives, Bitcoin has not been embraced.

Greeted with little enthusiasm

A nationally representative survey of 1,800 Salvadoran households in February indicated just 20% of the population was using Chivo Wallet for Bitcoin transactions. More than double that number downloaded the app, but only to claim the US$30.

Among respondents who identified as business owners, just 20% said they were accepting bitcoins as payment. These were typically large companies (among the top 10% of companies by size).

Business acceptance of Bitcoin in El Salvador

A survey for the El Salvador Chamber of Commerce in March found only 14% of businesses were transacting using Bitcoin.

Making huge losses

Fortunately for Salvadorans, nothing has come of the US$1 billion Bitcoin bonds scheme. But the Bukele government has still spent more than US$100 million buying bitcoins – which are now worth less than US$50 million.

When Bukele announced his plans in July 2021, Bitcoin’s value was about US$35,000. By the time the legislation came into effect, on September 7 2021, it was about US$45,000. Two months later, it peaked at US$64,400.

Now it is trading at around US$20,000.

Bukele has made self-congratulatory tweets about “buying the dip” but almost all the bitcoins bought by the government have been for more than US$30,000, at an average price of more than US$40,000.

A year ago, Bukele was urging his citizens to hold their money in bitcoins. For anyone who did, the losses would be devastating.

Flawed analyses

Bukele’s misunderstanding of Bitcoin – and economics more generally – has been demonstrated repeatedly.

In June 2021 he tweeted: “Bitcoin has a market cap of US$680 billion. If 1% of it is invested in El Salvador, that would increase our GDP by 25%.”

This suggests he seemed to think Bitcoin was some sort of investment fund. It also showed he did not understand GDP. Foreign investment is not a component of GDP. There has been no surge in foreign investment nor GDP.

In a January 2022 tweet he argued a “gigantic price increase is just a matter of time” because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins while there are 50 million millionaires in the world. “Imagine when each one of them decides they should own at least ONE #Bitcoin,” he proclaimed. Bitcoin’s value has since halved.

The rest of the world is not impressed

The Bitcoin plan has adversely affected El Salvador’s credit rating and relations with the International Monetary Fund. With investors more wary of lending to the country, local borrowers have had to offer higher interest rates.

In January the IMF urged El Salvador to reverse Bitcoin’s legal lender status because of the “large risks for financial and market integrity, financial stability and consumer protection”. Bitcoin is notorious for its use in scams and other illegal activities, as well as its volatility.

Bukele tweeted a dismissive response involving a Simpsons-themed meme.

El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele’s response to the IMF’s warnings about the risk of making Bitcoin legal tender.
Twitter, CC BY

This seems particularly rash, given El Salvador has been seeking a loan of more than $1 billion from the IMF.

International credit rating agencies Fitch has downgraded El Salvador’s credit rating this year, citing concerns about its Bitcoin policies.

No other country with its own currency, not even ones such as Zimbabwe and Venezuela with discredited currencies, has followed suit and made Bitcoin legal tender.

Given El Salvador’s record, it is is unikely any ever will.

About the Author:

John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Cryptocurrencies Opinions

17 Sep

COT Forex Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling & Euro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Japanese Yen & British Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (24,512 contracts) with the Mexican peso (4,079 contracts) and the Brazilian real (2,093 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-22,503 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-17,654 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,485 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,268 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,555 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,350 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,196 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies this week was the further deterioration of the Japanese yen speculative positions. The yen speculator bets have now fallen for five straight weeks and by a total of -55,660 contracts over that period. This recent weakness followed an improvement in the yen positions in ten out of the previous thirteen weeks through August 9th. The overall speculator standing this week has dipped to the most bearish level of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to June 7th. The USDJPY currency pair has continued to see the dollar surge against the yen with the USDJPY above the 142.90 exchange rate to end the week. The pair has hit a high right below the 145.00 level for two straight weeks which is the highest exchange rate for the dollar versus the yen since September of 1998.

The British pound sterling speculator positions fell for a third consecutive week this week. The sterling bets have now declined by a total of -40,120 contracts over the past three weeks to bring the overall standing to a 14-week low. The GBPUSD currency pair has also dropped to a multi-decade low against the US dollar with the pound hitting a 37-year low this week. The GBPUSD closed the week just above the 1.1400 exchange rate after falling in four out of the past five weeks.

On the positive side of the COT data this week is the Euro. The European common currency bounced back this week with a strong +24,512 contracts and has now risen for two straight weeks. This recent improvement has taken the overall speculator standing to a level of just -11,837 contracts. With the EURUSD currency pair trading virtually at parity as it closed the week at the 1.0017 exchange rate, it is an interesting situation trying to read the large trader positioning. The speculators, especially in currencies, usually exhibit trend following behavior and would be expected to have a position of at least -100,000 contracts in this type of environment.

This could mean the speculators feel that the parity level will be close to the bottom for this pair and it is too risky to add to the short positioning. Or, the speculator short positioning could start to rise if the pair keeps its downtrend below parity. One thing for sure is that there are a huge amount of positions open in the market currently. The open interest level this week of 742,244 contracts is in the 99th percentile of the past three years. We know from open interest analysis that many times turning points coincide with peaks in open interest. However, with a possible recession for the Eurozone on the way combined with strong inflationary pressures and a potential energy crisis from the Russia-Ukraine war, the fundamental backdrop is very cloudy. It will undoubtedly take some time but will be very interesting to see how the large trader positioning and situation resolves itself.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	62,077	93	35,669	84	-38,380	15	2,711	46
EUR	742,244	100	-11,837	31	-11,423	73	23,260	13
GBP	303,965	100	-68,086	11	87,325	92	-19,239	7
JPY	281,716	100	-80,692	19	98,299	84	-17,607	18
CHF	44,853	31	-7,305	38	16,512	70	-9,207	26
CAD	149,556	30	12,425	53	-13,476	57	1,051	32
AUD	182,287	69	-57,850	31	67,018	69	-9,168	30
NZD	51,079	46	-5,301	62	9,408	45	-4,107	4
MXN	208,403	53	-25,381	17	21,333	82	4,048	60
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,582	42	32,953	83	-34,577	18	1,624	84
Bitcoin	13,089	74	126	79	-320	0	194	17

Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.8 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges and both are in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (79.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent).

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent), Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (85.2 percent)
EuroFX (31.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.8 percent)
Brazil Real (82.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (80.7 percent)
Bitcoin (79.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

Brazilian Real leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (33.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (15.2 percent), Bitcoin (12.3 percent) and the Euro (8.3 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) followed by the Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.4 percent)
EuroFX (8.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.2 percent)
Brazil Real (33.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,107 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	9.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	70.9	4.2
– Net Position:	35,669	-38,380	2,711
– Gross Longs:	48,984	5,647	5,342
– Gross Shorts:	13,315	44,027	2,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	14.8	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.0	-1.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	55.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	56.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-11,837	-11,423	23,260
– Gross Longs:	207,778	410,364	88,806
– Gross Shorts:	219,615	421,787	65,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	72.8	12.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-7.6	-0.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	76.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	47.7	13.3
– Net Position:	-68,086	87,325	-19,239
– Gross Longs:	41,129	232,346	21,161
– Gross Shorts:	109,215	145,021	40,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	92.4	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.9	-7.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -22,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	40.5	14.5
– Net Position:	-80,692	98,299	-17,607
– Gross Longs:	39,323	212,375	23,186
– Gross Shorts:	120,015	114,076	40,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	83.6	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	23.4	-20.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	60.2	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	23.4	41.4
– Net Position:	-7,305	16,512	-9,207
– Gross Longs:	7,704	26,988	9,355
– Gross Shorts:	15,009	10,476	18,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	69.8	26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-10.8	2.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	44.7	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	53.7	20.0
– Net Position:	12,425	-13,476	1,051
– Gross Longs:	48,102	66,866	30,933
– Gross Shorts:	35,677	80,342	29,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	57.5	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	14.1	-18.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	66.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.8	29.3	17.1
– Net Position:	-57,850	67,018	-9,168
– Gross Longs:	29,218	120,393	22,049
– Gross Shorts:	87,068	53,375	31,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	68.9	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	3.7	-7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	53.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	35.3	12.9
– Net Position:	-5,301	9,408	-4,107
– Gross Longs:	17,949	27,458	2,498
– Gross Shorts:	23,250	18,050	6,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	44.9	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.0	-9.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	42.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.0	32.6	1.6
– Net Position:	-25,381	21,333	4,048
– Gross Longs:	103,772	89,260	7,469
– Gross Shorts:	129,153	67,927	3,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	81.7	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.3	7.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.8	12.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	79.0	3.1
– Net Position:	32,953	-34,577	1,624
– Gross Longs:	42,192	6,186	3,203
– Gross Shorts:	9,239	40,763	1,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	17.5	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.5	-33.2	-0.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	4.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.5	6.6	5.7
– Net Position:	126	-320	194
– Gross Longs:	10,268	546	944
– Gross Shorts:	10,142	866	750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	49.0	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-27.4	-3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT excel data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Sep

Weekly COT Metals Speculator bets led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market having decreasing contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (8,144 contracts) with Copper (5,004 contracts), Platinum (4,872 contracts) and Palladium (329 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold with a decline of -6,513 contracts the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week was Silver’s gain that stopped a streak of three straight weeks of declines. Silver speculator positions had fallen by a total of -16,292 contracts in the past three weeks to drop to the most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver price has been showing resilience between the $18 to $20 range over the past twelve weeks and closed this week over the $19.30 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,498,059	3	227,057	4	-244,007	98	16,950	28
Gold	463,674	3	97,344	2	-110,938	99	13,594	9
Silver	135,530	3	-4,640	9	-2,551	93	7,191	4
Copper	157,900	0	-18,986	23	20,512	80	-1,526	16
Palladium	6,085	1	-1,273	16	1,455	83	-182	33
Platinum	68,574	36	-1,879	7	-2,051	93	3,930	17
Natural Gas	977,116	4	-145,715	35	110,794	66	34,921	63
Brent	164,415	12	-39,023	46	34,919	51	4,104	65
Heating Oil	290,916	31	16,064	66	-31,353	38	15,289	51
Soybeans	643,018	15	92,110	42	-61,424	68	-30,686	19
Corn	1,310,411	6	294,569	68	-234,179	39	-60,390	8
Coffee	197,657	10	42,267	75	-44,360	29	2,093	19
Sugar	751,873	9	68,330	51	-79,426	53	11,096	22
Wheat	287,046	0	-8,128	8	12,977	78	-4,849	85

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (22.7 percent) leads the metals markets and is just out of a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

On the downside, all the other markets are currently below 20 percent and in bearish extreme positions. Gold (1.8 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level and near the bottom of it 3-Year range. Platinum (6.6 percent), Silver (9.0 percent) and Palladium (15.7 percent) are the next lowest markets.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (1.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.8 percent)
Platinum (6.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.0 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.8 percent)

Strength Trends led by Palladium and Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (6.6 percent) and Platinum (0.9 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-10.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver with a -6.2 percent trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (-6.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.1 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.1 percent)
Palladium (7.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 97,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.7	27.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	51.3	5.8
– Net Position:	97,344	-110,938	13,594
– Gross Longs:	225,932	126,950	40,556
– Gross Shorts:	128,588	237,888	26,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	99.1	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	8.9	6.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.4	38.2	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	40.1	10.8
– Net Position:	-4,640	-2,551	7,191
– Gross Longs:	53,373	51,822	21,808
– Gross Shorts:	58,013	54,373	14,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	92.8	3.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	6.2	-4.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	49.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	36.8	9.7
– Net Position:	-18,986	20,512	-1,526
– Gross Longs:	44,574	78,682	13,738
– Gross Shorts:	63,560	58,170	15,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	79.6	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-5.3	-7.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	38.6	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.3	41.6	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,879	-2,051	3,930
– Gross Longs:	30,552	26,473	7,567
– Gross Shorts:	32,431	28,524	3,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	93.4	16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.4	-4.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	61.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	37.2	17.9
– Net Position:	-1,273	1,455	-182
– Gross Longs:	1,382	3,720	910
– Gross Shorts:	2,655	2,265	1,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	82.9	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-7.2	0.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

17 Sep

Weekly Bonds Speculator bets led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (29,311 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (23,388 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (15,926 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (10,818 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Eurodollar (-94,668 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-31,439 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-15,568 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-9,754 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,494,359	13	-2,877,322	0	3,227,082	99	-349,760	27
FedFunds	1,585,427	48	47,961	46	-33,149	56	-14,812	22
2-Year	2,008,780	10	-358,181	10	436,181	100	-78,000	16
Long T-Bond	1,225,024	49	-94,971	54	66,528	34	28,443	75
10-Year	3,639,621	39	-352,889	19	462,613	77	-109,724	54
5-Year	3,982,527	50	-521,459	7	676,949	96	-155,490	38

US Treasury Bond at top of Bond Market Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) led the bonds markets and is the only market above its 3-Year midpoint (above 50 percent). The Fed Funds (45.5 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) come in as the next highest bond market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.2 percent), the 5-Year Bond (6.7 percent), the 2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) come in as the lowest markets and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (41.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (39.4 percent)
Eurodollar (0.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.9 percent)

Strength Trends show 2-Year Bond on sharp downtrend

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Fed Funds (6.3 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent), US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-15.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-47.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-26.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Eurodollar (-1.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,877,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -94,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,782,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	71.4	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	37.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-2,877,322	3,227,082	-349,760
– Gross Longs:	612,295	6,777,674	415,183
– Gross Shorts:	3,489,617	3,550,592	764,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	98.7	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.6	0.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 29,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	70.0	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	72.1	3.3
– Net Position:	47,961	-33,149	-14,812
– Gross Longs:	228,568	1,110,141	37,571
– Gross Shorts:	180,607	1,143,290	52,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.9	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-5.7	-8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -358,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -31,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -326,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	85.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	63.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-358,181	436,181	-78,000
– Gross Longs:	100,196	1,720,285	142,700
– Gross Shorts:	458,377	1,284,104	220,700
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	100.0	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.2	48.1	2.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -521,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -505,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.5	11.4
– Net Position:	-521,459	676,949	-155,490
– Gross Longs:	276,668	3,365,483	299,655
– Gross Shorts:	798,127	2,688,534	455,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	95.8	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	30.0	-16.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -352,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	79.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	67.1	12.3
– Net Position:	-352,889	462,613	-109,724
– Gross Longs:	297,034	2,903,201	336,640
– Gross Shorts:	649,923	2,440,588	446,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	76.8	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	9.5	-5.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	79.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	70.6	17.0
– Net Position:	-6,786	114,915	-108,129
– Gross Longs:	128,433	1,087,797	126,105
– Gross Shorts:	135,219	972,882	234,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	69.8	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-9.6	5.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -94,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	76.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	71.1	11.7
– Net Position:	-94,971	66,528	28,443
– Gross Longs:	73,918	937,965	171,546
– Gross Shorts:	168,889	871,437	143,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	34.3	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	8.3	12.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -346,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -357,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	82.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	59.5	8.2
– Net Position:	-346,597	310,612	35,985
– Gross Longs:	79,375	1,129,862	148,787
– Gross Shorts:	425,972	819,250	112,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	67.0	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.3	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds COT Updates Financial News investing

17 Sep

Weekly Soft Commodities Speculator bets led higher by Soybeans, Sugar and Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Soybeans, Sugar and Corn

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while XX markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybeans (10,859 contracts) and Sugar (10,559 contracts) with Corn (8,022 contracts), Soybean Meal (7,042 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,799 contracts), Live Cattle (5,590 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,821 contracts) and Wheat (1,631 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,338 contracts) and Coffee (-4,901 contracts) with Cotton (-2,672 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,498,059	3	227,057	4	-244,007	98	16,950	28
Gold	463,674	3	97,344	2	-110,938	99	13,594	9
Silver	135,530	3	-4,640	9	-2,551	93	7,191	4
Copper	157,900	0	-18,986	23	20,512	80	-1,526	16
Palladium	6,085	1	-1,273	16	1,455	83	-182	33
Platinum	68,574	36	-1,879	7	-2,051	93	3,930	17
Natural Gas	977,116	4	-145,715	35	110,794	66	34,921	63
Brent	164,415	12	-39,023	46	34,919	51	4,104	65
Heating Oil	290,916	31	16,064	66	-31,353	38	15,289	51
Soybeans	643,018	15	92,110	42	-61,424	68	-30,686	19
Corn	1,310,411	6	294,569	68	-234,179	39	-60,390	8
Coffee	197,657	10	42,267	75	-44,360	29	2,093	19
Sugar	751,873	9	68,330	51	-79,426	53	11,096	22
Wheat	287,046	0	-8,128	8	12,977	78	-4,849	85

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (91.0 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (75.4 percent) and Corn (67.7 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (8.5 percent) and Cocoa (11.0 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (66.6 percent)
Sugar (50.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (48.5 percent)
Coffee (75.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (79.6 percent)
Soybeans (41.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (91.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (87.1 percent)
Live Cattle (65.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (46.3 percent)
Cotton (49.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (11.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.3 percent)
Wheat (8.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (39.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (16.6 percent), Coffee (13.0 percent) and Corn (11.9 percent) fill out the next highest top movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-9.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cocoa (-3.9 percent) followed by Lean Hogs (-0.6 percent) and Soybeans (-0.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-1.3 percent)
Coffee (13.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybeans (-0.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.3 percent)
Live Cattle (39.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.0 percent)
Cotton (7.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.0 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.0 percent)
Wheat (-9.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 286,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	44.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	62.8	13.5
– Net Position:	294,569	-234,179	-60,390
– Gross Longs:	424,311	588,143	116,795
– Gross Shorts:	129,742	822,322	177,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	38.5	8.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.1	-4.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	54.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	64.6	7.5
– Net Position:	68,330	-79,426	11,096
– Gross Longs:	182,761	406,409	67,735
– Gross Shorts:	114,431	485,835	56,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	53.1	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-8.4	12.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	47.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	69.8	3.6
– Net Position:	42,267	-44,360	2,093
– Gross Longs:	54,749	93,613	9,237
– Gross Shorts:	12,482	137,973	7,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.4	29.0	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-14.9	12.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	54.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.8	11.0
– Net Position:	92,110	-61,424	-30,686
– Gross Longs:	163,326	348,795	40,216
– Gross Shorts:	71,216	410,219	70,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	67.8	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.3	-6.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	51.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	67.2	5.6
– Net Position:	54,581	-64,417	9,836
– Gross Longs:	86,257	203,170	32,312
– Gross Shorts:	31,676	267,587	22,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	59.7	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-20.6	32.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 114,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	42.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	78.2	6.6
– Net Position:	114,177	-137,766	23,589
– Gross Longs:	127,398	162,437	48,950
– Gross Shorts:	13,221	300,203	25,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.0	11.3	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-2.9	6.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	32.8	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	53.9	12.5
– Net Position:	68,420	-62,992	-5,428
– Gross Longs:	116,375	97,896	31,907
– Gross Shorts:	47,955	160,888	37,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.2	27.0	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.5	-35.6	-20.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	36.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	51.9	13.9
– Net Position:	39,162	-30,253	-8,909
– Gross Longs:	75,480	72,966	18,664
– Gross Shorts:	36,318	103,219	27,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.4	57.7	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	1.9	-5.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 48,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	45.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	71.7	3.7
– Net Position:	48,040	-54,685	6,645
– Gross Longs:	74,992	95,659	14,436
– Gross Shorts:	26,952	150,344	7,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	50.6	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-10.2	31.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	46.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	46.0	3.6
– Net Position:	-5,874	1,917	3,957
– Gross Longs:	98,670	140,388	14,705
– Gross Shorts:	104,544	138,471	10,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.0	89.4	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	1.8	20.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	41.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	37.0	11.5
– Net Position:	-8,128	12,977	-4,849
– Gross Longs:	88,091	119,219	28,202
– Gross Shorts:	96,219	106,242	33,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.5	78.1	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	3.0	27.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities

17 Sep

Natural Gas and Gasoline lead the COT Energy Speculator bets lower

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Natural Gas and Gasoline

The COT energy market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil with a total gain on the week of 12,579 contracts.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-7,077 contracts), Gasoline (-3,574 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-2,635 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,796 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (-14 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,498,059	3	227,057	4	-244,007	98	16,950	28
Gold	463,674	3	97,344	2	-110,938	99	13,594	9
Silver	135,530	3	-4,640	9	-2,551	93	7,191	4
Copper	157,900	0	-18,986	23	20,512	80	-1,526	16
Palladium	6,085	1	-1,273	16	1,455	83	-182	33
Platinum	68,574	36	-1,879	7	-2,051	93	3,930	17
Natural Gas	977,116	4	-145,715	35	110,794	66	34,921	63
Brent	164,415	12	-39,023	46	34,919	51	4,104	65
Heating Oil	290,916	31	16,064	66	-31,353	38	15,289	51
Soybeans	643,018	15	92,110	42	-61,424	68	-30,686	19
Corn	1,310,411	6	294,569	68	-234,179	39	-60,390	8
Coffee	197,657	10	42,267	75	-44,360	29	2,093	19
Sugar	751,873	9	68,330	51	-79,426	53	11,096	22
Wheat	287,046	0	-8,128	8	12,977	78	-4,849	85

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) and Heating Oil (66.1 percent) lead the energy markets. These two markets are the only ones in energy that are above the 3-year midpoint at the current time (above 50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level followed by Gasoline (17.6 percent) and both are in bearish extreme readings (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (1.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (50.1 percent)
Natural Gas (34.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.0 percent)
Gasoline (17.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.2 percent)
Heating Oil (66.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (68.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is followed by Heating Oil (-8.8 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent), Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) and Gasoline (-5.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.1 percent)
Gasoline (-5.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.8 percent)
Heating Oil (-8.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (20.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 227,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 214,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	40.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	56.4	3.9
– Net Position:	227,057	-244,007	16,950
– Gross Longs:	340,716	600,618	75,790
– Gross Shorts:	113,659	844,625	58,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	98.4	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	7.8	-3.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -39,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	53.7	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	32.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-39,023	34,919	4,104
– Gross Longs:	27,455	88,321	9,542
– Gross Shorts:	66,478	53,402	5,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	51.3	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	5.1	42.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -145,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	42.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	31.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-145,715	110,794	34,921
– Gross Longs:	155,945	418,580	67,120
– Gross Shorts:	301,660	307,786	32,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	65.8	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	7.3	-5.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	48.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	67.0	7.1
– Net Position:	45,592	-45,909	317
– Gross Longs:	76,103	121,491	18,029
– Gross Shorts:	30,511	167,400	17,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	87.3	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	10.9	-41.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	55.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	65.8	9.0
– Net Position:	16,064	-31,353	15,289
– Gross Longs:	41,005	160,000	41,349
– Gross Shorts:	24,941	191,353	26,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.1	37.9	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	4.3	6.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	70.4	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	55.6	0.2
– Net Position:	-10,434	10,122	312
– Gross Longs:	18,402	48,090	447
– Gross Shorts:	28,836	37,968	135
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	32.2	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-8.7	3.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing

17 Sep

COT Stock Market Speculator bets sharply down led by S&P500 Mini & the Nasdaq Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by the S&P500 Mini & the Nasdaq Mini

The COT stock market speculator bets had a down week this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower positioning.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-42,284 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-10,240 contracts), VIX (-9,792 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-6,664 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-3,547 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-2,078 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also recording lower bets for the week.

Overall, the stock markets we cover all have current negative or bearish net positioning with the exception of the Nasdaq Mini.

Highlighting the weakness in sentiment is the S&P500 Mini which has hit its lowest speculative positioning (-281,004 contracts currently) in the past 117 weeks, dating back to June of 2020. The S&P500 Mini speculator positions have now been below the -200,000 contract threshold for ten straight weeks. The S&P Mini has been in a bearish level for thirteen consecutive weeks since turning bearish on June 21st.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,603,046	20	-281,004	4	370,284	100	-89,280	8
Nikkei 225	14,151	10	-4,641	55	2,949	44	1,692	50
Nasdaq-Mini	314,969	80	11,806	82	15,545	36	-27,351	0
DowJones-Mini	92,577	59	-11,686	23	13,522	77	-1,836	29
VIX	348,672	41	-98,526	60	105,680	41	-7,154	57
Nikkei 225 Yen	46,260	23	1,033	37	21,754	80	-22,787	28

Nasdaq-Mini, VIX and Nikkei lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini continues to leads the stocks with an 81.6 percent score. The Nasdaq strength score in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent) but has been sliding over the past few weeks. The VIX (59.9 percent) and the Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores and their scores are above the 3-year midpoints (50 percent).

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level followed by the Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) and both markets are in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (64.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (22.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (81.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (13.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.8 percent)

EAFE, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EAFE-Mini (15.4 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The DowJones-Mini (9.0 percent) and the VIX (0.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the S&P500-Mini (-9.1 percent) followed by the Nasdaq-Mini (-7.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (0.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-7.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-5.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -98,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	58.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	28.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-98,526	105,680	-7,154
– Gross Longs:	42,480	205,325	28,804
– Gross Shorts:	141,006	99,645	35,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	40.6	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-0.1	-0.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -281,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -42,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	76.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	62.1	14.3
– Net Position:	-281,004	370,284	-89,280
– Gross Longs:	234,795	1,986,386	282,571
– Gross Shorts:	515,799	1,616,102	371,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	100.0	7.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.5	-5.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	57.6	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	43.0	15.0
– Net Position:	-11,686	13,522	-1,836
– Gross Longs:	20,662	53,298	12,067
– Gross Shorts:	32,348	39,776	13,903
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	77.1	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-12.6	14.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	58.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	53.3	21.0
– Net Position:	11,806	15,545	-27,351
– Gross Longs:	75,279	183,440	38,679
– Gross Shorts:	63,473	167,895	66,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.6	36.1	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	15.2	-22.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -99,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	86.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	67.8	6.0
– Net Position:	-99,152	107,746	-8,594
– Gross Longs:	37,156	504,080	26,407
– Gross Shorts:	136,308	396,334	35,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	91.6	1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-8.2	-15.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	53.3	34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	32.5	22.3
– Net Position:	-4,641	2,949	1,692
– Gross Longs:	1,729	7,548	4,844
– Gross Shorts:	6,370	4,599	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	44.4	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	-1.3	37.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	90.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	86.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-17,432	15,627	1,805
– Gross Longs:	20,356	438,607	25,389
– Gross Shorts:	37,788	422,980	23,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.5	80.4	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-11.4	-30.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

COT Updates Financial News investing Stock Market News

16 Sep

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.09.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After a mighty decline to 0.9955, the pair is consolidating around 0.9988. Today it may drop to the lower border of the range at 0.9955, and with a breakaway of this level downwards, a pathway to 0.9800 will open.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1535, and today it has almost broke through this border. A wave of decline might form to 1.1360. After this level is reached, a link of correction may form to 1.1480, and later a decline to 1.1340.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The pair is forming a consolidation range around 143.25. Today the range might extend to 144.00. If it is broken away upwards, growth to 144.99 will become possible. And in the case of an escape from the range downwards, the pair might reach 141.99, from where the trend might continue to 140.99.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The pair performed a wave of growth to 0.9600 and corrected to 0.9555. Today the market is forming a new structure of growth to 0.9633, around which level a consolidation range may form. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 0.9714 will open. The goal is local.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The pair performed a wave of decline to 0.6727, and today the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. With an escape upwards, a link of correction to 0.6800 may follow. And with a breakaway downwards, the pair might proceed to 0.6606. The goal is local.

BRENT

Oil completed a link of a growing wave to 96.00. Today the market corrected to 90.25. At the moment, the market is consolidating above this level. We expect an escape upwards as soon as the new wave of growth to 97.00 starts.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold performed a structure of decline to 1693.40. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation range around this level; with an escape downwards, the wave of decline will be extended to 1656.22. After this level is reached, a wave of growth to 1695.00 might start.

S&P 500

The stock index completed a wave of decline to 3913.0. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation range above this level and today escaped it downwards. Practically, a pathway to 3755.5 is open. And after this one is reached, the index might correct to 3955.5 (a test from below).

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Sep

Murrey Math Lines 16.09.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, oil quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates a downtrend. A downwards breakaway of 1/8 and subsequent falling to the support level of 0/8 should be expected. The scenario can be canceled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8, which might make the price rise to 3/8.

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the downtrend and a high probability of further price falling.

S&P 500

On H4, the index is under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates a downtrend. Further falling of the quotes to the nearest support level of 0/8 is expected. The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 1/8, in which case the index might rise to 2/8.

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the probability of further price falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

16 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.16

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9972
Prev Close: 0.9994
% chg. over the last day: +0.22 %

New Eurozone inflation data will be released today. Analysts forecast that the Consumer Price Index will not change and will remain at the same level. But there may be surprises in the form of a new round of price acceleration, so investors should keep a close eye on the report. Volatility in currency pairs with the euro will increase.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9971, 0.9912
Resistance levels: 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading in a narrow range, and a sharp impulse movement is expected. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on intraday time frames from the support level of 0.9912, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0111 or 1.0162.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9912 and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.16:

– Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1541
Prev Close: 1.1462
% chg. over the last day: -0.69 %

The pound is one of the major currencies with the worst performance in 2022 due to expectations of a prolonged recession, sustained high inflation, and political instability. New Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans to finance a giant energy support package by increasing borrowing have heightened investor fears about the long-term prospects of the British economy. The Bank of England (BoE) will meet next week and is expected to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points (bps), perhaps even 75 bps, as it looks to slow inflation. According to Refinitiv, money markets currently assume a 65% chance of a 75 basis point increase.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1449, 1.1400
Resistance levels: 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. But at the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages again, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1449, but only with confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1626 or 1.1693.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down the support level of 1.1449 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.16:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 143.11
Prev Close: 143.46
% chg. over the last day: +0.25 %

Koichi Hagiuda, executive director of Japan’s ruling party, calls for $209 billion to fight inflation and the weak yen. A senior Japanese ruling party official suggested Thursday that a stimulus package worth more than 30 trillion yen is needed to address inflationary pressures in Japan’s economy. Haguida’s remarks followed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s comments last week that the government would prepare a new economic package in October to soften the blow that rising prices are taking on households and businesses. The government has unveiled short-term stimulus measures that include financial support for low-income households, tax exemptions for residents, and an extension of gasoline subsidies and other measures through the end of the year.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 142.88, 141.77, 141.00, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 144.22, 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 142.88, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be sought on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 144.22 or 145.00, but only with additional confirmation since the USD/JPY is inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3167
Prev Close: 1.3226
% chg. over the last day: +0.45 %

The Canadian dollar has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2020. Despite falling more than 4% this year against its US counterpart, the Canadian dollar will remain one of the best-performing currencies in the world in 2022. The economy has been helped by higher commodity and energy prices as well as reduced COVID restrictions, with growth actually accelerating in the second quarter even as fears about the global economic crisis intensified.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3220, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3326

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3220. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3326, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2990 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

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By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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