29 Sep

Week Ahead: Gold set for more explosive volatility

By ForexTime 

If you thought the last few days were explosive for gold prices, then wait until you see what factors could spark even more volatility next week!

The precious metal experienced a brutal selloff this week, shedding roughly 2.7% (at the time of writing) as the prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates boosted the dollar and Treasury yields.

Before we unpack what factors may further influence gold prices, here is a list of key economic reports and events to watch out for in the first week of Q4:

Sunday, October 1

Monday, October 2

  • AUD: Australia Melbourne Institute inflation
  • JPY: BoJ September meeting minutes
  • EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
  • USD: US ISM Manufacturing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Tuesday, October 3

  • AUD: RBA rate decision
  • Bitcoin: Former FTX CEO set to go on trial
  • USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Wednesday, October 4

  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, retail sales, PPI
  • USD: US factory orders, ADP employment, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech

Thursday, October 5

  • AUD: Australia trade
  • USD: US trade, initial jobless claims, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speech

Friday, October 6

  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • EUR: Germany factory orders
  • USD: US September nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Now, here are 4 reasons why we’re keeping a close eye on gold:

  1. Possible US Government shutdown

The US government will experience a partial shutdown from Sunday 1st October if US Congress fails to meet the September 30th midnight deadline to pass funding bills.

Such a negative development could be incredibly disruptive for the US economy. Many public employees will not receive their payslips while private companies who get paid by government contracts may see funds halted until the government re-opens.

But it does not end here. Key economic data such as the US NFP and inflation among other releases may be delayed at a critical time when investors are constantly seeking key insight on the health of the US economy and future monetary policy.

  • Should an extended US government shutdown fuel fears of a US recession and cool bets around the Fed raising rates one more time in 2023, gold could shine.

  1. Powell & Fed speakers in focus

A week jam-packed with speeches from numerous Fed officials, including Jerome Powell could place gold on a rollercoaster ride.

Most Fed speakers have struck a hawkish note recently, standing firm on their mission to tame inflation by pointing in the direction of more tightening. With the latest US CPI figures accelerating for a second month to 3.7% in August, policymakers may be keen to keep the beast under control. Traders are currently pricing in a 38% probability of a 25-basis point hike by the end of 2023, according to Fed fund futures. This figure may be influenced by the messaging of Fed speakers among over major factors.

  • Another round of hawkish comments from Fed officials may drag gold prices lower as Fed hike bets rise.
  • Gold bulls could fight back if Fed officials strike a cautious note with the impending government shutdown supporting upside gains.

  1. US September nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

It is worth keeping in mind that the US September nonfarm payrolls report could be delayed if the US government experiences a partial shutdown from the 1st of October.

Markets expect the US economy to have created 170,000 jobs in September following August’s increase of 187,000. The unemployment rate is seen cooling to 3.7% from the 3.8% in the previous month.

  • A strong-than-expected US jobs report may support the “higher for longer” expectations around US interest rates – dragging gold prices lower.
  • However, further evidence of a cooling US jobs market may support the argument that the Fed is finished with hiking rates this year – providing support to gold.

  1. Bearish technical forces

Gold remains under intense pressure on the daily charts with prices well below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA.

Although bears are in a position of power thanks to fundamental forces, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling heavily oversold conditions. A technical pullback could be on the horizon before prices extend the heavy decline toward the next key level of interest at $1810.

  • A technical pullback towards the $1885 resistance level may encourage a decline back towards $1857.50, $1830, and $1810, respectively.
  • Should prices break above $1885, this could encourage a move back towards $1900.

At the time of writing, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 74% chance that Gold will trade within the $1843.46 – $1905.39 range over the next one-week period.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
28 Sep

Murrey Math Lines 28.09.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has reached the oversold area. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 8/8 (0.9277) level, rebound from it, and drop to the support at 6/8 (0.9155). The scenario can be cancelled by breaking the 8/8 (0.9277) level. In this case, the quotes could reach the resistance at +1/8 (0.9334).

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, following a rebound from the 8/8 (0.9277) level on H4, the price decline could be additionally supported by a breakout of the lower line of the VoltyChannel.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold quotes and the RSI are in the oversold area. In such circumstances, the quotes are expected to surpass the 0/8 (1875.00) level, rising to the resistance at 2/8 (1890.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the -1/8 (1867.19) level, which will send the quotes down to the support at -2/8 (1859.38).

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is too far from the current price so the price rise could be supported by breaking the 0/8 (1875.00) level on H4.

XAUUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
28 Sep

Economic institutions lowered their forecasts for German GDP. Oil updates highs again

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.20%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.22% on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrials (US30) fell to a 3-month low. The broad market moved to the downside yesterday after bond yields resumed their upward trend, with the 10-year German bond yield rising to a new 12-year high. Stocks initially headed higher after bond yields fell amid dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who said the government shutdown and a prolonged strike by automakers may require less action from the Fed. Stocks also gained support after Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate on Tuesday night agreed on a plan to keep the government open through mid-November and provide $6 billion in aid to Ukraine.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), US mortgage applications fell by 1.3% for the week ended September 22 from the previous week. The subindex of home purchase applications fell by 1.5%, and the subindex of refinance applications fell by 0.9%. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 10 bps to 7.1%, the highest rate in 22 years. US new capital goods orders rose by 0.9% m/m in August, beating expectations of 0.1% m/m and the most substantial increase in 7 months.

Markets factor in a 24% probability that the FOMC will raise the interest rate by 25 bps at the next FOMC meeting on November 1 and a 47% probability that the rate will be raised by 25 bps at the meeting ending December 13. Markets then expect the FOMC to start cutting rates in the second half of 2024 in response to an anticipated slowdown in the US economy.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down by 0.25%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.03% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.43%.

Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Index for October fell to a 6-month low of 26.5, weaker than expectations of 26.0. The French consumer confidence indicator for September fell to a 4-month low of 83, weaker than expectations of 84. Five German economic institutions downgraded their forecasts for German GDP for 2023 to a contraction of -0.6% from a previous forecast of 0.3% growth. Eurozone M3 money supply contracted by a record 1.3% y/y in August, weaker than expectations of 1.0% y/y.

Oil prices rose to a 13-month-high yesterday. Crude oil prices continue to rise amid concerns that global oil supplies will remain tight for the foreseeable future. The weekly EIA report released on Wednesday showed crude oil inventories fell to a 9-month low, and crude inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI crude futures, fell to a 14-month low.

Asian markets traded flat on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.18% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 0.83%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday positive 0.05%.

In China, Evergrande’s suspension has dampened sentiment in Chinese markets ahead of the week-long Autumn Festival holiday. Nevertheless, the holiday is expected to support the Chinese economy by boosting consumer spending.

Uncertainty over China caused Australia’s ASX 200 Index (AU200) to lose most of its gains for the day. Data also showed that Australian retail sales rose less than expected in August amid continued pressure from high-interest rates and inflation.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,274.51 +0.98 (+0.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,550.27 −68.61 (−0.20%)

DAX (DE40)  15,217.45 −38.42 (−0.25%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,593.22 −32.50 (−0.43%)

USD Index  106.73 +0.50 (+0.47%)

News feed for 2023.09.25:
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
28 Sep

How markets might react to a US government shutdown?

By ForexTime

  • US government shutdown may further slow economic momentum
  • Fed could be prevented from one last rate hike
  • Market reaction from 2018 shutdown may repeat itself
  • US dollar may weaken, but not much
  • Gold, US stock indexes could recover

The US government is set to be shut down temporarily, starting this Sunday, October 1st.

The Democrats and Republicans in the world’s largest economy are at loggerheads, yet again, over how to deploy fiscal funds.

 

A blast from the past …

Since 1981, the US government has suspended operations (though not entirely) 14 different times.

The last time we saw a US government shutdown was for a 35-day stretch between December 2018 till January 2019 – the longest shutdown in US history.

And during that last shutdown:

  • The US dollar (as measured by USDInd) fell by 1.2%
  • Gold climbed by 3.8%
  • SPX500_m soared by 10.3%

 

Perhaps the more notable takeaway from that prior episode is this:

The previous US government shutdown also coincided with the Fed’s last interest rate hike for that cycle.

  • December 2015: Fed raises US interest rates for the first time since the global financial crisis
  • December 2018: US government shuts down for 35 days; Fed’s last rate hike of that cycle that began in Dec 2015
  • July 2019: Fed turns tail and begins CUTTING rates, eventually sending it all the way back down to near-zero at the onset of the global pandemic in 2020.

 

Would Fed adopt same playbook at imminent US government shutdown?

Probably not, given that core US inflation, at 4.1% in August, remains more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Sticky inflation suggests that one more Fed rate hike could be in the pipeline, or at least US rates staying higher for longer.

 

Still, markets remain obsessed with trying to figure out:

  • Whether the Fed can trigger one last 25-basis point hike by year-end?
    Currently, markets predict a 53% chance of it happening.
  • How long will the Fed keep interest rates at this peak?

 

And we know that these rate hikes are intended to slow down inflation by destroying demand in the economy.

Even prior to the threat of this imminent government shutdown, economists and market watchers had already been bracing for a US economic slowdown, possibly even a recession.

Goldman Sachs predicted that the shutdown may result in a 0.2 percentage point drag on US GDP per week.

 

How would a government shutdown slow the US economy?

A US government shutdown means that:

  • many public employees, including staff at national parks to museums, will see their paycheques halted.
  • private companies that get paid from government contracts, stand to lose almost US$ 2 billion a day from this shutdown.
  • The highly-anticipated releases of the US nonfarm payrolls report (due Friday, October 6th) and the US consumer price index (due October 12th), as well as other major economic data, may be delayed.

All the above suggests that, the longer the US government stays shut, the more it deprives the world’s largest economy of crucial fiscal spending.

Hence, an extended US government shutdown could yet raise the prospects of a US recession.

And that could prevent one more Fed hike, or even hasten a rate cut.

And such an outlook would have a major impact across global financial markets.

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

If the US government is shut down, as expected, beginning October 1st, with signs of staying offline for an extended period, we’d expect a similar market reaction from 2018:

  • The USD Index may find it tougher to climb higher, and even moderate lower as the shutdown goes on.

However, the US dollar may not fall by much, perhaps only to around the 105.0 region, as long as US yields remain notably higher than its major peers, such as Europe, the UK, and Japan.

 

 

  • Spot gold may return above $1900

An easing US dollar would make it an easier task ahead for gold bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) as markets wind down bets for one final Fed rate hike.

After all, gold tends to have an inverse relationship with US interest rates/yields/dollar (gold tends to go up when US rates/yields/dollar does down, and vice versa).

Demand for traditional safe havens, which include gold, may also help the precious metal recover.

 

 

  • US stock indexes (SPX500_m, NQ100_m, WSt30_m) may find some relief

The declines of late for US stock markets have been largely attributed to the fact that the Federal Reserve intends to keep its benchmark rates higher for longer.

However, an extended US government shutdown could alter that narrative, i.e. prevent one last Fed rate hike, or potentially even bring forward the Fed’s rate CUT.

Hopes for a sooner-than-expected Fed rate cut should help US stock indexes pare back recent declines.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 Sep

Union and execs need to shift gears fast once UAW strike is over – transition to EV manufacturing requires their teamwork

By Peter Berg, Michigan State University

The United Auto Workers union is ramping up its strike against General Motors and Stellantis – the global company that makes Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge vehicles – and getting closer to a deal with Ford.

About 5,600 UAW members at 38 General Motors and Stellantis distribution centers for auto parts in 20 states walked off the job on Sept. 22, 2023, after an announcement by UAW President Shawn Fain.

Workers at the only Ford plant affected by the strike since it began on Sept. 15 will remain off the job. The total number of UAW members involved in the strike stands at about 18,300.

Under Fain’s leadership, the union is taking an adversarial approach: It’s railing against what it describes as the “poverty wages” UAW members earn while denouncing the automakers’ CEOs as “greedy” and vowing to “wreck their economy.”

As a scholar of employment relations, I think this strike is too narrowly focused on making up for the wages and benefits autoworkers have lost in recent years. But another big objective is ensuring that autoworkers will have good jobs once most U.S.-made vehicles are electric-powered.

This dispute alone will not resolve this larger objective. Rather, I believe management and labor will need to swiftly move on following the strike and work together constructively to meet that goal.

UAW’s demands

The union is demanding an end to the concessions it made to the three companies during the financial crisis that began in 2007. Its members employed by Ford, GM and Stellantis have experienced a 19% decline in their wages, after accounting for inflation, since 2008.

The union also wants the automakers – sometimes called the Detroit Three – to abolish the tiered wage system, which pays new employees far less than more experienced workers, even for the same work. The UAW initially said it was seeking a wage increase of 40% over four years and the restoration of a cost-of-living allowance that would link wages to inflation.

In addition to these demands, the UAW wants defined-benefit pensions for all workers restored, company-paid health benefits for retirees reestablished and the right to strike over plant closures guaranteed. Other demands include more paid time off and seeing all temporary workers made permanent. It has also called for a 32-hour work week without a pay cut.

Precedents for working together

Although the strike has emphasized the goal of boosting future autoworker pay and benefits, I believe that workers and management can look to the past for ideas that might help them move forward.

GM’s Saturn partnership offers one potential model.

The company’s approach to its Saturn brand of compact vehicles, launched in 1985, was unique in many respects. Its governance structure was characterized by shared decision-making at different levels throughout the plant. The local union was a full partner in virtually all business decisions.

GM invested billions of dollars in this venture, through which it tried to compete with Japanese imports and transplants that were quickly eroding GM’s market share. Saturns were designed differently than other U.S. vehicles, but what made those vehicles special was the extent to which labor shared the responsibility for running Saturn’s main factory.

The Saturn partnership was hard to maintain, especially following the departure of Roger B. Smith, the General Motors CEO who had pushed hard for it. The company stopped making Saturns in 2009, but the former subsidiary’s overall approach of involving workers in decisions about their jobs and the manufacturing process remains as critical today as it was in its heyday.

I would encourage the auto industry to again invoke the spirit of the Saturn venture, which emphasized the collaboration and partnership of labor and management in the production of high-quality, world-class vehicles. Only this time, the vehicles will be EVs.

GM offers another model for positive union-management relations.

About 20 years ago, its Lansing-Grand River assembly plant in Michigan began to engage in a similar example of what I call joint responsibility unionism. Management and the local UAW union established a contractual commitment to work together to continually improve production by systematically solving problems and increasing productivity.

Management and the local UAW union established a contractual commitment to work together to continually improve production by systematically solving problems and increasing productivity.

The local union and management hold each other accountable for keeping costs down and quality high. The plant, which assembles Cadillacs and Chevy Camaros, continues this approach successfully today.

Shift the focus to the future

The UAW is pointing to the billions of dollars in profits auto companies are currently getting when it demands a bigger piece of the pie. The companies counter that rapidly increasing EV production is costly.

GM, Ford and Stellantis already plan to invest more than US$100 billion in electric vehicle manufacturing. As production shifts away from vehicles with internal combustion engines that burn gasoline or diesel fuel, the number of autoworkers needed to build them will decline. EVs have fewer parts.

Ford and Volkswagen, for example, have estimated that they’ll eventually need 30% less labor due to the EV transition.

Undergoing this transformation with labor and management at loggerheads can’t possibly benefit the UAW or the auto companies.

Instead, they’ll need to focus on finding solutions together that increase productivity, build a skilled workforce and efficiently convert plants that make conventional vehicles today to EV factories tomorrow. In so doing, the UAW is more likely to meet its goal of seeing those EV factories employ its members.The Conversation

About the Author:

Peter Berg, Professor of Employment Relations; Director of Human Resources and Labor Relations, Michigan State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Financial News Stock Market News
27 Sep

Clean Tech Co. Partners With European Hydrogen Producer

Source: Streetwise Reports  (9/25/23)

This company’s European partner has signed a memorandum of understanding with a leading producer and supplier of renewable hydrogen to offer decarbonization solutions on the continent.

Jericho Energy Ventures Inc. (JEV:TSX.V; JROOF:OTC; JLM:FSE) announced that its European partner, Exogen Hydrogen Solutions, has signed a memorandum of understanding with a leading European producer and supplier of renewable hydrogen to offer decarbonization solutions for industrial steam, district heating, and mobility applications on the continent.

Lhyfe inaugurated its first green hydrogen production site in 2021 and has five more under construction. It said it plans to achieve 3 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity of hydrogen production by 2030.

“Green hydrogen has become highly relevant for decarbonizing industrial steam, district heating, and logistics,” Lhyfe Vice President of Sales and Business Development Philippe Desorme said.

Atrium Research analyst NicholasCortelluci has a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of CA$0.50 per share.

“By partnering with Exogen, we expect a significant expansion of our green hydrogen production output over time while also opening a completely new market segment for us.”

Jericho subsidiary Hydgrogen Technologies’ Dynamic Combustion Chamber™ boiler burns hydrogen and oxygen in a vacuum chamber to create high-temperature water and steam with no greenhouse gases or other pollutants. The only by-product is water, which is recycled. It’s meant to replace existing boilers that burn coal, natural gas, diesel, or fuel oil.

The Catalyst: A New Type of Ecosystem

Jericho recently announced a partnership with two other companies, Exogen and the Sofinter Group, to build, implement, and service a new complete hydrogen steam plant that can permanently eliminate the CO2 equivalent of about 5,000 cars: the HSP3000.

The partnership between Exogen, which is offering the final integrated product that comes pre-assembled in container-sized units, and Lhyfe “paves the way for a new type of ecosystem and vast markets for green and renewable hydrogen,” Lhyfe said in a release.

The product and partnership should also have a positive effect on Hydrogen Technologies’ sales in the second half of the year, as the company recently announced its first sale of a DCC™ boiler system to a prominent anonymous university, Atrium Research analyst Nicholas Cortellucci wrote in a research note.

“This (sale) . . . positions JEV as a key industry leader and a first mover in its category,” Cortelluci wrote. Cortellucci has a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of CA$0.50 per share.

Another recent Jericho and Hydrogen Technologies announcement also bodes well for the company, Cortellucci wrote. The company is collaborating with a “leading global alcoholic beverage company” to study using the boilers at production facilities in four countries.

“The HSP3000 can also eliminate all NOx, CO2, and other GHG emissions from industrial steam and district heating applications, potentially allowing clients to harvest carbon credits,” Cortellucci wrote. “We expect the product launch to expedite sales commitments across various industries, including Pulp & Paper, Food & Beverages, Pharmaceuticals, Industrial Chemicals, and O&G (oil and gas).”

DCC™ boilers are being considered for deployment at major facilities around the world, with feasibility studies being conducted or considered at dozens of locations, the company has said.

Decarbonizing Heat a Big Challenge

Lhyfe’s role will be to operate green hydrogen production facilities so the combined products can open new markets for growth in Europe in industrial steam and district heating.

Steam production is a core component of many processes in industries including pulp and paper, food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals, and oil and gas.

“There is growing demand by multinationals and industrial clusters targeting operating synergies from combining thermal and mobility solutions powered by green hydrogen,” Lhyfe said in a release. “The mobility applications are aimed at hydrogen refilling stations for forklifts, vans, delivery trucks, and cars. Thermal solutions include industrial steam, large buildings, and district heating applications.”

Decarbonizing heat is the biggest challenge energy markets face, Exogen Chief Revenue Officer Saverio Costanzo said.

“In our mission to decarbonize energy applications, Lhyfe is an ideal partner,” Costanzo said. “The future of energy applications is green, and we are right in the middle of it.”

On September 12, Jericho reported approval from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office for the protection of the DCC™ boiler.

Hydrogen Technologies has two further patents pending to protect and enhance the device’s novel intellectual property, and the company has begun receiving initial commercial orders.

The company is “excited about the new patent allowance from the USPTO and looks forward to the opportunity to continue to expand its portfolio of IP related to its emission-free industrial hydrogen boiler system,” Jericho Chief Executive Officer Brian Willamson said.

A ‘Uniquely Versatile Energy Carrier’

According to the International Energy Agency, the world needs more hydrogen technology and projects to meet a net-zero emissions scenario by 2050.

“Faster action is required on creating demand for low-emission hydrogen and unlocking investment that can accelerate production scale-up and deployment of infrastructure,” the agency wrote.

The hydrogen market has the “potential for near-zero greenhouse gas emissions,” the U.S. Department of Energy said.

“Hydrogen generates electrical power in a fuel cell, emitting only water vapor and warm air,” the agency wrote. “It holds promise for growth in both the stationary and transportation energy sectors.”

Hydrogen doesn’t occur on its own naturally on Earth, despite being the most abundant element in the universe. It needs to be separated from water or hydrocarbon carbons using electrolyzers.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Jericho Energy Ventures Inc. (JEV:TSX.V; JROOF:OTC; JLM:FSE)

Retail: 55%
Management/Insiders: 35%
Non-Insider Institutions: 10%
55%
35%
10%
*Share Structure as of 7/27/2023
Source: Jericho Energy Ventures Inc.

 

It’s also a “uniquely versatile energy carrier,” according to a report by the Hydrogen Council. “It can be produced using different energy inputs and different production technologies. It can also be converted to different forms and distributed through different routes — from compressed gas hydrogen in pipelines through liquid hydrogen on ships, trains or trucks, to synthesized fuel routes.”

Ownership and Share Structure

Around 35% of Jericho’s shares are held by management, insiders, and insider institutional investors, the company said. They include CEO Brian Williamson, who owns 1.25% or about 3.1 million shares; founder Allen William Wilson, who owns 0.79% or about 1.97 million shares; and board member Nicholas Baxter, who owns 0.46%, or about 1.14 million shares, according to Reuters.

Around 10% of shares are held by non-insider institutions, and 65% are in retail, the company said.

JEV’s market cap is CA$67 million, and it trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.44 and CA$0.21. It has 248.14 million shares outstanding and 178.38 million floating.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Jericho Energy Ventures Inc. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Jericho Energy Ventures Inc.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

 

Energy Financial News
27 Sep

Hawkish comments from Fed officials support the dollar. The Japanese yen is approaching last year’s intervention levels

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.14%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.47%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.57% on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones Industrials (US30) fell to 3-month lows, while the NASDAQ (US100) index fell to a 5-week low. Concerns about the health of the US economy pressured stocks yesterday. US new home sales in August fell by 8.7% m/m to a 5-month low of 675,000, weaker than expectations of 698,000. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September fell by 5.7 to a 4-month low of 103.0, which was weaker than expectations of 105.5.

In addition, falling tech stocks are weighing on the overall market on fears that global central banks will be forced to raise interest rates longer to fight inflation. Also weighing negatively are hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve after Minneapolis FRB President Kashkari said he believes the Fed will have to raise interest rates one more time this year due to a strengthening US economy.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.70% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.02%.

ECB spokesman Holtzman said yesterday that it is still unclear whether the ECB has peaked as upside risks to inflation remain. But his ECB counterpart Müller does not currently expect further interest rate hikes by Europe’s Central Bank. This suggests that a rift is maturing within the ECB over the future conduct of monetary policy.

WTI crude oil prices rose moderately amid concerns that global oil supplies will remain tight for the foreseeable future. Oil prices also rose on expectations that the EIA’s weekly oil inventories report will be released on Wednesday, which will show a decline of 900,000 barrels. Tensions in the oil market are expected to continue as OPEC+ production cuts are extended. Saudi Arabia recently said it would maintain its unilateral oil production cut of 1.0 million BPD through December. The move will keep Saudi oil production at around 9 million BPD, the lowest in three years. Russia also recently announced that it will maintain its 300,000 BPD oil production cut through December. The oil rally continues, and there are no factors for a reversal at the moment.

Asian markets traded lower on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 1.11% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.54% on Tuesday. On Wednesday, most Asian stocks continued to fall amid lingering concerns over a US interest rate hike, while Chinese stocks rose on positive industrial earnings data and PBoC promises to expand stimulus to the economy.

But China’s worsening real estate debt crisis remains a concern for global stock markets due to fears it will derail the country’s growth prospects and drag down the global economy. China Evergrande Group said its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate Group defaulted on a 4 billion yuan ($547 million) debt payment due on Monday, and Chinese authorities have detained former executives of the company.

Minutes from Japan’s latest monetary policy meeting showed that the board’s view was that the current monetary easing should be maintained to achieve the price target in a stable and sustainable manner. Against this backdrop, the Japanese yen continues to depreciate. Yesterday, Japan’s Finance Minister Suzuki said he was closely monitoring market trends, hinting that the government could intervene at any time to support the currency. In 2022, the Japanese government conducted record dollar sales to support the yen, which by then had passed the 150 mark. Now, the currency is on the verge of testing those same levels.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,273.53 −63.91  (−1.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,618.88 −388.00 (−1.14%)

DAX (DE40)  15,255.87 −149.62 (−0.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,625.72 +1.73 (+0.023%)

USD Index  106.17 +0.18 (+0.17%)

News feed for 2023.09.25:
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 Sep

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Indices

By ForexTime 

Some semblance of stability returned to global equity markets on Wednesday as rate hike fears cooled after a sharp selloff in the previous session.

European stocks edged higher in tight ranges while US futures are pointing to a mixed open amid the cautious market mood. In the currency arena, the dollar continues to dominate with the USD Index trading at levels not seen since November 2022. Looking at commodities, oil prices surged this morning while gold extended losses thanks to rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

Our attention today falls on major indices which seem to be under the mercy of rate hike fears.

SPX500_m could test 200-day SMA

The bearish case for the SPX500_m was reinforced after prices secured a solid daily close below the 4332 levels.

There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades below zero. Bears are clearly in a position of power with a breakdown below 4270, opening a path towards the 200-day SMA at 4210. For bulls to jump back into the game, a move back 4332 needs to be achieved.

NQ100_m breaks key daily support

The recent breakdown below the 14670 support level may signal further downside for the NQ100_m with 14250 acting as a key level of interest.

Technical forces favour bears, as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while prices are trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA. Should prices push back above 14670, this could trigger a rebound towards the 100-day SMA before the downside resumes.

STOX50_m wobbles above 4100

It is safe to say that STOX50_m bears remain in some position of power below the 4200 resistance level.

Prices are approaching another support at 4100, a level not seen since March 2022. A solid breakdown below this level could trigger a selloff towards 4060. Should 4100 prove to be reliable support, prices may push back towards 4200.

UK100_m trapped in wide range

It remains a choppy affair for the UK100_m which is currently trapped within a very wide range on the daily charts.

Resistance can be found at 7710 and support at 7250. Despite the choppiness, prices could be gearing up to decline given the recent break below the 200-day SMA. A strong daily close under 7605 may spark a selloff towards 7530 – where the 50-day SMA resides. If bulls can fight back, a bounce towards 7710 could be on the cards.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
26 Sep

What Will Happen to That $30 Trillion in U.S. Home Equity?

“It’s like someone turned off the faucet”

By Elliott Wave International

You probably remember the last big housing bust which began more than 15 years ago.

Elliott Wave International has observed that falling housing prices are generally preceded by a decline in home sales. The lag time may be some months, which was the case in the 2005-2006 timeframe.

Here’s what I mean: The December 2005 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, noted:

In October, home sales fell a larger-than-expected 2.7%. “It’s like someone turned off the faucet,”said a real estate agent.

The January 2006, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast provided an update:

Home sales are falling across the board now.

By mid-2006, U.S. home prices peaked, and a major housing bust followed.

Since the trough of that bust, U.S. home prices not only rebounded, but reached an all-time high in June 2022.

Yet, here in the late summer of 2023, homeowners may have a reason to worry. Here’s an Aug. 22 news item from bankrate.com:

Existing-home sales fall but prices still near record highs
Existing-home sales in July fell 2.2 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors. It’s a 16.6 percent decline from one year ago.

Given that prices are still near record highs, homeowners in the aggregate (at least for now) have a huge amount of equity.

As a Sept. 7 CNBC headline notes:

‘House-rich’ Americans are sitting on nearly $30 trillion in home equity. …

But, as we learned from the prior housing bust, change can sometimes be dramatic.

As a reminder, here’s a June 2011 news item (Cleveland.com):

Americans’ equity in their homes near a record low
The average homeowner now has 38 percent equity, down from 61 percent a decade ago.

Is another major housing bust just ahead?

Well, as Elliott Wave International has noted, the stock market and the housing market tend to be correlated.

So, if you’re wondering what’s ahead for housing, keep an eye on the main stock indexes.

An ideal way to do that is by performing Elliott wave analysis.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis or simply need a refresher, read Frost & Prechter’s Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic:

If indeed markets are patterned, and if those patterns have a recognizable geometry, then regardless of the variations allowed, certain price and time relationships are likely to recur. In fact, experience shows that they do.

It is our practice to try to determine in advance where the next move will likely take the market. One advantage of setting a target is that it gives a sort of backdrop against which to monitor the market’s actual path. This way, you are alerted quickly when something is wrong and can shift your interpretation to a more appropriate one if the market does not do what you expect. The second advantage of choosing a target well in advance is that it prepares you psychologically for buying when others are selling out in despair, and selling when others are buying confidently in a euphoric environment.

If you’d like to read the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, you may do so for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community. A Club EWI membership is also free.

Join now by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Will Happen to That $30 Trillion in U.S. Home Equity?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News Real Estate
26 Sep

Cycle of rate hikes is over – are your investments aligned?

By George Prior 

Investors need now to ensure their investment portfolios are ready for “a new era” as central banks become seemingly convinced that no further interest rate rises will be needed in this monetary cycle.

This assessment from Nigel Green of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, comes as policymakers in the US, UK, Japan and Switzerland all decided to keep rates steady last week.

He comments: “We’re in a transition period ahead of a new monetary era as most of the world’s most influential central banks are now anticipated to cut interest rates in the next quarter of 2024, rather than raise them.

“This is because we’re heading into a stage of lower growth and lower inflation.”

With central banks, it appears, having reached a consensus that no further interest rate hikes are likely to be needed, investors must recalibrate their strategies.

Diversification remains a foundational strategy in managing investment risk. Investors should consider allocating their assets across various classes, including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.

Amid economic deceleration, it’s prudent to emphasize defensive stocks in your portfolio.

“These are companies that tend to exhibit resilience during downturns due to the essential nature of their products or services. Sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples often fall into this category. Companies in these sectors can continue to generate revenue even when consumer spending weakens,” says the deVere CEO.

“While economic growth may slow, technological advancements and innovation continue to shape the future. Investing in companies at the forefront of technology and innovation can be a smart move. This includes sectors like tech, biotech, and green energy, which may experience sustained growth as society seeks solutions to pressing global challenges.”

He goes on to add: “Also, consider investments with a fixed income component to match your risk tolerance and income needs.”

In addition, emerging markets, notes Nigel Green, can present attractive opportunities during periods of global economic slowdown. These markets often exhibit higher growth potential compared to mature economies. “However, they also come with higher volatility and risks, so thorough research and a long-term investment horizon are essential.”

Navigating the complexities of investing during economic slowdowns requires careful planning and expertise. Seeking advice from a financial advisor can provide you with a tailored investment strategy based on your unique financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

“The world is about to shift into a new era and your investments should be aligned accordingly if you’re serious about creating, growing and safeguarding your money,” says Nigel Green.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

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