RoboMarkets Pro, a brand of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH, has been honoured with the prestigious “Best Professional Trading Conditions (Europe)” award at the Professional Trader Awards 2023.
This accolade underscores the company’s unwavering commitment to delivering exceptional service and innovative solutions to its clients in the trading industry.
RoboMarkets Pro offers several key benefits for professional clients, including:
Diverse Trading Instruments: access to over 12,000 instruments, including stocks, indices, ETFs, and currencies.
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High Execution Speeds and Tight Spreads: achieving execution as fast as 0.1 seconds and spreads starting from 0 points.
Higher Leverage Options: offering leverage up to 1:300.
The Professional Trader Awards, now in their fifth year and organised by Holiston Media, have become the gold standard for recognising excellence in the trading industry. These awards highlight the efforts of brokers who provide an ‘exclusive’ level of service, particularly for professional traders.
The rigorous selection process involves an initial nomination by the brokers themselves, followed by a voting phase where over 11,500 votes are cast by traders through their professional accounts. With more than 200 nominee companies across 17 categories, this year’s awards were the most competitive to date.
RoboMarkets Pro stands tall among its peers, having demonstrated exceptional capabilities in tailoring trading conditions for professional traders in Europe. This award is a testament to the company’s dedication to excellence and its pivotal role in shaping the future of trading.
About RoboMarkets Pro
RoboMarkets Pro is the brand name of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH. RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH is a German broker that’s supervised by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority under number 154068 and offers financial services to residents of EU/EEA countries.
Find more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on its website www.robomarkets.de.
At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.07% (-0.67% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.18% (-1.86% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.09% (-3.83% for the week).
The dollar rose to a 3-week high on Friday morning after a stronger-than-expected US December payrolls report dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. However, the dollar gave up mid-day and moved to the downside after the ISM Services Business Activity Index for December in the US came in weaker than expected. US nonfarm payrolls for the decade rose by 216,000, exceeding expectations of 175,000. The unemployment rate for December was unchanged at 3.7%, which was stronger than expectations for an increase to 3.8%. The US average hourly earnings for the decade rose by 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y. The US ISM Services Business Activity Index for the decade fell by 2.1 to a 7-month low of 50.6, weaker than expectations of 52.5. Also boosting stocks were dovish comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin on Friday, when he said he was not opposed to lowering interest rates as the economy normalizes and confidence grows that inflation will fall.
Statistics Canada showed Friday that labor productivity — a broad measure of real gross domestic product per number of hours worked in the economy — has declined in the country for six consecutive quarters. Economists say the measure is critical to improving Canada’s quality of life, and the decline will be of particular concern to the Bank of Canada (BoC), which will determine what benchmark interest rate to set next. While productivity has stalled, Friday’s jobs report shows average hourly earnings accelerated to 5.4% year-over-year in December. Bank policy makers note that average hourly earnings growth in the 4% to 5% range falls short of the 2% inflation target.
Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.14% (-0.09% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.40% (-1.89% for the week) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.18% (+0.46% for the week) on Friday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.43% (-0.43% for the week). The Euro Stoxx 50 Index (EU50) fell to a one-month low on Friday, and European government bond yields rose to 3-week highs after the Eurozone’s December consumer price index accelerated from November, reducing the ECB’s chances of easing monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bloomberg Economics raised their growth forecasts for the United Kingdom, giving hope to the economy as the economic outlook improves even as floods and strikes shake the country. In the markets, analysts have raised their forecasts for sterling, with investors recently turning bullish on the currency for the first time in three months. Some are also seeing signs of a reversal in equities on the back of stronger retail sales figures.
German retail sales for November fell by 2.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m and the biggest decline in 19 months. Germany is the economic engine of Europe, so if the German economy is struggling, it is likely that the rest of the EU is too. However, German manufacturing PMI data — although still in deep negative territory — showed signs of improvement, rebounding from a low of 38.8. The ZEW economic sentiment index, which measures experts’ views on the direction of the European economy over the next six months, also rose from its pessimistic low of September 2023.
As transportation corporations divert ships away from the Red Sea, retailers face the biggest upheaval in shipping since COVID-19 threatened the freight industry in 2020. As a result, Western retailers may wait longer for goods to arrive from China, and shortages will drive up prices. The British Retail Consortium said the rising costs could reverse the trend of lower food price inflation. It could also affect energy supplies to Europe.
Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.93%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 2.73% over five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 3.11%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative by 1.32%.
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) said it will strive to maintain buoyant financial activity and expand financial openness this year to support economic growth and high-quality development effectively. The PBoC will deepen financial market opening by facilitating foreign investors’ participation in China’s bond market, the statement added. In addition, efforts will be made to strengthen the interconnectivity of domestic and overseas financial infrastructure, participate in the formulation of rules for international trade involving the financial sector, and further improve the policy system to facilitate the cross-border use of the yuan.
S&P 500 (US500) 4,697.24 +8.56 (+0.18%)
Dow Jones (US30) 37,466.11 +25.77 (+0.07%)
DAX (DE40) 16,594.21 −23.08 (−0.14%%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,689.61 −33.46 (−0.43%)
USD Index 102.44 +0.01 (+0.01%)
News feed for 2024.01.08:
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (m/m) at 19:00 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Bitcoin is the talk of the town this week, as the clock ticks down to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) 10th January critical deadline to vote on Bitcoin ETF applications.
The cryptocurrency entered the new year in a volatile and choppy fashion amid growing speculation over regulators giving the green light. Indeed, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would mark a historic moment for the digital asset – representing potential inflows of new investors.
Taking a quick look at the technical picture, Bitcoin has entered standby mode on the daily charts with prices trading marginally below $44.5k as of writing.
Whatever decision the SEC takes on Wednesday, it is likely to have a lasting impact on Bitcoin.
In the meantime, here are 3 potential outcomes to watch out for:
SEC approves Bitcoin ETF applications
The SEC approves the first bitcoin ETF in the United States, marking a watershed moment after 10 years of failed applications.
A spot bitcoin ETF is a big deal and provides investors with easier and supposedly more reliable access to the world’s largest cryptocurrency without having to purchase it directly.
This outcome could trigger an aggressive appreciation in Bitcoin prices due to the prospects of fresh inflows from retail and institutional investors.
However, given how markets were expecting the ETF approval – this could result in a “sell the news” type of reaction that drags prices lower before investor inflows push prices higher down the road.
SEC delays Bitcoin ETF applications
It is worth keeping in mind that the SEC sued Coinbase back in June for operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker and clearing agency.
Given how Coinbase is the largest US crypto exchange and the only one that’s a public company, it stands to greatly benefit from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval as the middleman.
Should this situation lead to possible delays in the ETF approval process, bitcoin prices could slip amid the uncertainty.
SEC rejects all Bitcoin ETF applications.
The SEC recently tweeted “NO GO to FOMO”, essentially warning about the fear of missing out behavior for cryptocurrencies and other trending investments.
While the SEC rejecting the ETF applications seems to be the most unlikely outcome for markets, this could send bitcoin plummeting if it becomes reality.
Technical outlook:
Bitcoin is turning bullish on the weekly charts with prices respecting a weekly bullish channel.
Prices have entered standby mode ahead of Wednesday’s major risk event. However, resistance can be found at $44,500 with the next point of interest at $50,000. Beyond this point is the all-time high just below $69,000.
Should prices slip back below $37,000, this may open the doors towards $30,000 and $20,000.
As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index added 0.03%, while the S&P 500 (US500) index fell by 0.34% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed at a negative 0.56% on Thursday. Interest rate-sensitive technology stocks came under pressure yesterday after better-than-expected US labor market reports pushed bond yields up and lowered expectations for a Fed interest rate cut.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell by 18,000 to a 2-month low of 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 216,000. In addition, the December employment change from ADP rose by 164,000, indicating a more robust labor market than expectations of 125,000 and the largest increase in 4 months. Markets estimate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 at 7% and at the March 19-20 meeting at 70%.
Canada’s manufacturing PMI declined in the second quarter of 2020 at the sharpest pace since the pandemic, limiting the central bank’s (BoC) ability to fight inflation with restrictive policy. Meanwhile, concerns over weaker global oil demand dampened foreign exchange inflows, robbing the Canadian currency of support.
Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.52% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.28% yesterday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a positive 0.53%.
Germany and France saw a slight increase in inflation, mainly due to higher energy prices, which coincided with market forecasts. In other economic news, the Eurozone PMI showed a seventh consecutive month of contraction in private sector activity, albeit at a slower pace than originally forecast.
The latest business activity data confirmed that the UK economy remains resilient to high interest rates. UK consumer borrowing increased by £2.0 billion in November, the highest level since March 2017 and exceeding the expected £1.4 billion increase. In addition, home purchase loans totaled 50.1k, which also exceeded forecasts. Finally, the final PMI showed that UK services output rose more strongly in December than originally anticipated, with optimism hitting a seven-month high.
Crude oil and gasoline prices moved to the downside as crude inventories unexpectedly rose in the EIA’s weekly report on Thursday, suggesting weak energy demand in the US.
Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.53%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.84% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed near its opening price, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was at a negative 0.39% on the day.
Chinese markets continue to underperform. Concerns about China weighed on Asian markets after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the country’s four largest state-owned asset managers on Thursday.
The offshore yuan slipped to 7.15 per dollar, falling to its lowest level in three weeks, facing pressure from a strengthening dollar as traders cut aggressive bets on the US Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year. Earlier in the week, the yuan also came under pressure after official data showed that activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted further in December. This reinforced bets that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) may ease policy further this year to support the fragile and uneven economic recovery. Markets expect a cut in key lending rates and another reduction in reserve requirement ratios in the first half of this year.
S&P 500 (US500) 4,688.68 −16.13 (−0.34%)
Dow Jones (US30) 37,440.34 +10.15 (+0.03%)
DAX (DE40) 16,617.29 +78.90 (+0.48%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,723.07 +40.74 (+0.53%)
USD Index 102.40 −0.09 (−0.09%)
News feed for 2024.01.05:
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
SPX500_m set for first weekly loss since late-October
US CPI & major bank earnings could move index
SPX500_m under pressure on daily charts
However, prices still above 50, 100 and 200-day SMA
Key levels of interest at 4798, 4700 and 4640
It’s been a rough start to the new year for US equities with the SPX500_m heading for its first weekly loss since late October.
The index could see heightened volatility this afternoon thanks to the key US jobs report (Friday 5th January). But even as anticipation mounts, traders are bracing for more action in the week ahead.
All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data and earnings announcements by major US banks which could rock the SPX500_m over the coming week.
EUR: Eurozone unemployment, Germany industrial production
JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, household spending
USD: US trade
Wednesday, 10th January
USD: New York Fed President John Williams speech
Bitcoin: Deadline for SEC to vote on Bitcoin ETF applications
Thursday, 11th January
AUD: Australia trade balance
NZD: New Zealand building permits, home sales
USD: US December CPI, initial jobless claims
Friday, 12th January
CNH: China CPI, PPI, trade
GBP: UK industrial production
USD: US PPI, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speech
SPX500_m: Bank of America, BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo results
It will be wise to keep an eye on the December US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published on Thursday, January 11th.
Markets are forecasting:
CPI year-on-year (December 2023 vs. December 2022) to rise 3.3% from 3.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 3.8% from 4.0% in the prior month.
CPI month-on-month (December 2023 vs November 2023) to rise 0.2% from 0.1% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to cool 0.2% from 0.3% in the prior month.
Headline inflation is expected to have ticked higher due to rising energy prices, while the annual core inflation is seen cooling to 3.8% – its lowest in over two years.
Will US CPI help SPX500_m bulls or bears?
Stronger-than-expected US economic data this week has dampened bets around the Fed cutting rates as soon as March.
This dealt a blow to the S&P 500 which has a bunch of tech stocks that remain sensitive to US monetary policy expectations. When considering how tech stocks account for roughly 28% of the index’s value, the incoming US inflation report next week could spark fresh volatility.
The SPX500_m could extend losses if the inflation numbers print above market forecasts.
Should the US CPI report show evidence of cooling prices, this could push the SPX500_m higher.
US earnings season in focus
Fourth quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday 12th January, led by the biggest US banks.
Heavyweights such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and BlackRock will be under the spotlight. Their earnings report will be closely scrutinized by investors for fresh insight into the health of US banks which can be used to assess the health of the US economy.
Given how financial stocks account for just over 13% of the S&P 500, the bank earnings could move the index on Friday.
SPX500_m bulls may be inspired If bank earnings exceed forecasts.
If earnings disappoint, this could pull the SPX500_m lower.
Watch out for the technicals…
The SPX500_m is under pressure on the daily charts with the recent break below the 4700 support helping bears.
However, the technical still favour bulls with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero.
Sustained weakness below 4700, may open a path towards 4640, 4600 and the 50-day SMA.
Should prices push back above 4700, this could trigger an incline back to the 2023 high.
As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 (US500) index was down by 0.80% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.18% on Wednesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell to a 2-week low, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell to a one-week low, and the NASDAQ Index (US100) fell to a 3-week low.
The minutes of the December 12-13 FOMC meeting did not indicate an imminent Fed rate cut and provided support for the dollar. The minutes also showed that policymakers agreed that it is appropriate to maintain a restrictive policy for some time until inflation begins to decline steadily. Markets estimate the odds of a -25bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 at 9% and at the next meeting on March 19-20 at 77% (down from 99% a week ago).
US economic news was mixed yesterday: activity in the US manufacturing sector was stronger than expected last month, but US job openings unexpectedly fell in November. The US ISM manufacturing index for the decade rose by 0.7 to 47.4, beating expectations of 47.1. The number of open job openings in the US for November unexpectedly fell by 62,000 to a 2-year low of 8.790 million, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of a rise to 8.821 million.
Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.38%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.58% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 1.26% yesterday, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.51%.
Inflation statistics for the Eurozone are expected to be released this week, following data from Germany today. Inflation is forecast to rise to 3% year-on-year in December, up from 2.4% in the previous month. This would be the highest reading in three months and the biggest rise in a single month since October 2022. Nevertheless, markets are questioning the ECB’s hawkish appetite. The policy rate has continued to move downward since the December meeting. Analysts expect the first 25 basis points (bps) rate cut to come no later than April.
Saudi Arabia officially joins the BRICS bloc. Prince Faisal bin Farhan said the BRICS group is a beneficial and important channel to strengthen economic cooperation. Previously, the BRICS bloc included Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Still, it will now double as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, and Ethiopia will join along with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has also applied to join BRICS. Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil consumer, China, has led calls for BRIC expansion to become a counterweight to the West.
Crude oil prices jumped on Wednesday on concerns about dwindling global oil supplies after Libya said it was shutting down its Sharara oil field after protesters stormed the facility. The Sharara oil field is Libya’s largest and pumps about 300,000 barrels per day.
Iran’s dispatch of a warship to the Red Sea is the boldest move it has made to challenge US forces on a key trade route, emboldening Houthi militants whose attacks have disrupted shipping over the past two months. Tehran is unlikely to want a direct confrontation—its old frigate is no match for the US-led maritime task forces patrolling the waters off Yemen, but it takes the projection of Iranian power in the region to a new level and heightens tensions in the Middle East.
Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading due to holidays, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 1.67% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.85% by Wednesday’s close, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 1.37% for the day.
Fitch downgraded four Chinese state-owned asset managers by one notch and placed three of the four companies under surveillance for further potential downgrades. The rating agency cited growing pressure on the four companies due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market and increased uncertainty about the government’s ability to support the asset managers’ finances. This, in turn, has led to uncertainty over the ability of state-owned companies to buy back non-performing assets on the open market, which is weighing unfavorably on China’s financial markets. At the same time, Taiwan should benefit from the semiconductor sector’s recovery from a severe downturn in 2023.
S&P 500 (US500) 4,704.81 −38.02 (−0.80%)
Dow Jones (US30) 37,430.19 −284.85 (−0.76%)
DAX (DE40) 16,538.39 −230.97 (−1.38%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,682.33 −39.19 (−0.51%)
USD Index 102.51 +0.31 (+0.30%)
News feed for 2024.01.04:
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The 161.8 golden Fib ratio is the nearest term support
Prices trading below 21-day EMA
Latest selloff confirms negative RSI divergence
US jobs data could inject more volatility
The NQ100_m has closed lower for two consecutive days in the New Year, unable to shake off a hangover after reaching all-time highs.
Some of this pullback has been attributed to a decline in Apple stocks and profit-taking in the stock market.
Given how key US employment data expected to inject volatility into the markets over the next couple of days, investors will be watching to see if the data confirms the Fed’s current stance on possible rate cuts in 2024.
Markets predict that 171,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in December. If so, this will be lower than the 199k created in the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 3.8% from 3.7% while average hourly earnings are forecast to slip 0.3% MoM compared to 0.4% in November. Should the report meet or print below expectations, this may reinforce bets around the Fed cutting interest rates as soon as March 2024.
Technically speaking…
Wednesday’s close saw the NQ100_m close below its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since going above it in early November last year.
However, the index is above its 50-day EMA, indicating a bullish sentiment. This decline in NQ100_m confirms the negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
This negative divergence saw the RSI decline to the 50-midway point where it is at the time of writing.
The negative divergence can be seen where NQ100_m made a new high on the 28th of December, but the RSI failed to make a new high itself.
If the Index continues to decline, it will encounter the following possible support zones.
16325.2: the 161.8 golden Fibonacci ratio (with the Fibonacci retracement drawn from December 20th’s low to December 28th’s high)
16062.5: the 50-day Exponential Moving Average
15912.3: the 261.8 Fibonacci Retracement level
A return of bullish momentum however could be confirmed with a close above 16496.7- its 21-dayEMA- where bulls (those looking to see the index rally further) will be looking to see NQ100-m, reclaim its all-time highs.
2023 was an inflection point in the evolution of artificial intelligence and its role in society. The year saw the emergence of generative AI, which moved the technology from the shadows to center stage in the public imagination. It also saw boardroom drama in an AI startup dominate the news cycle for several days. And it saw the Biden administration issue an executive order and the European Union pass a law aimed at regulating AI, moves perhaps best described as attempting to bridle a horse that’s already galloping along.
We’ve assembled a panel of AI scholars to look ahead to 2024 and describe the issues AI developers, regulators and everyday people are likely to face, and to give their hopes and recommendations.
Casey Fiesler, Associate Professor of Information Science, University of Colorado Boulder
2023 was the year of AI hype. Regardless of whether the narrative was that AI was going to save the world or destroy it, it often felt as if visions of what AI might be someday overwhelmed the current reality. And though I think that anticipating future harms is a critical component of overcoming ethical debt in tech, getting too swept up in the hype risks creating a vision of AI that seems more like magic than a technology that can still be shaped by explicit choices. But taking control requires a better understanding of that technology.
One of the major AI debates of 2023 was around the role of ChatGPT and similar chatbots in education. This time last year, most relevant headlines focused on how students might use it to cheat and how educators were scrambling to keep them from doing so – in ways that often do more harm than good.
However, as the year went on, there was a recognition that a failure to teach students about AI might put them at a disadvantage, and many schools rescinded their bans. I don’t think we should be revamping education to put AI at the center of everything, but if students don’t learn about how AI works, they won’t understand its limitations – and therefore how it is useful and appropriate to use and how it’s not. This isn’t just true for students. The more people understand how AI works, the more empowered they are to use it and to critique it.
So my prediction, or perhaps my hope, for 2024 is that there will be a huge push to learn. In 1966, Joseph Weizenbaum, the creator of the ELIZA chatbot, wrote that machines are “often sufficient to dazzle even the most experienced observer,” but that once their “inner workings are explained in language sufficiently plain to induce understanding, its magic crumbles away.” The challenge with generative artificial intelligence is that, in contrast to ELIZA’s very basic pattern matching and substitution methodology, it is much more difficult to find language “sufficiently plain” to make the AI magic crumble away.
I think it’s possible to make this happen. I hope that universities that are rushing to hire more technical AI experts put just as much effort into hiring AI ethicists. I hope that media outlets help cut through the hype. I hope that everyone reflects on their own uses of this technology and its consequences. And I hope that tech companies listen to informed critiques in considering what choices continue to shape the future.
Many of the challenges in the year ahead have to do with problems of AI that society is already facing.
Kentaro Toyama, Professor of Community Information, University of Michigan
In 1970, Marvin Minsky, the AI pioneer and neural network skeptic, told Life magazine, “In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” With the singularity, the moment artificial intelligence matches and begins to exceed human intelligence – not quite here yet – it’s safe to say that Minsky was off by at least a factor of 10. It’s perilous to make predictions about AI.
Still, making predictions for a year out doesn’t seem quite as risky. What can be expected of AI in 2024? First, the race is on! Progress in AI had been steady since the days of Minsky’s prime, but the public release of ChatGPT in 2022 kicked off an all-out competition for profit, glory and global supremacy. Expect more powerful AI, in addition to a flood of new AI applications.
The big technical question is how soon and how thoroughly AI engineers can address the current Achilles’ heel of deep learning – what might be called generalized hard reasoning, things like deductive logic. Will quick tweaks to existing neural-net algorithms be sufficient, or will it require a fundamentally different approach, as neuroscientist Gary Marcussuggests? Armies of AI scientists are working on this problem, so I expect some headway in 2024.
Meanwhile, new AI applications are likely to result in new problems, too. You might soon start hearing about AI chatbots and assistants talking to each other, having entire conversations on your behalf but behind your back. Some of it will go haywire – comically, tragically or both. Deepfakes, AI-generated images and videos that are difficult to detect are likely to run rampant despite nascent regulation, causing more sleazy harm to individuals and democracies everywhere. And there are likely to be new classes of AI calamities that wouldn’t have been possible even five years ago.
Speaking of problems, the very people sounding the loudest alarms about AI – like Elon Musk and Sam Altman – can’t seem to stop themselves from building ever more powerful AI. I expect them to keep doing more of the same. They’re like arsonists calling in the blaze they stoked themselves, begging the authorities to restrain them. And along those lines, what I most hope for 2024 – though it seems slow in coming – is stronger AI regulation, at national and international levels.
Anjana Susarla, Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State University
In the year since the unveiling of ChatGPT, the development of generative AI models is continuing at a dizzying pace. In contrast to ChatGPT a year back, which took in textual prompts as inputs and produced textual output, the new class of generative AI models are trained to be multi-modal, meaning the data used to train them comes not only from textual sources such as Wikipedia and Reddit, but also from videos on YouTube, songs on Spotify, and other audio and visual information. With the new generation of multi-modal large language models (LLMs) powering these applications, you can use text inputs to generate not only images and text but also audio and video.
The deluge of synthetic content produced by generative AI could unleash a world where malicious people and institutions can manufacture synthetic identities and orchestrate large-scale misinformation. A flood of AI-generated content primed to exploit algorithmic filters and recommendation engines could soon overpower critical functions such as information verification, information literacy and serendipity provided by search engines, social media platforms and digital services.
The Federal Trade Commission has warned about fraud, deception, infringements on privacy and other unfair practices enabled by the ease of AI-assisted content creation. While digital platforms such as YouTube have instituted policy guidelines for disclosure of AI-generated content, there’s a need for greater scrutiny of algorithmic harms from agencies like the FTC and lawmakers working on privacy protections such as the American Data Privacy & Protection Act.
A new bipartisan bill introduced in Congress aims to codify algorithmic literacy as a key part of digital literacy. With AI increasingly intertwined with everything people do, it is clear that the time has come to focus not on algorithms as pieces of technology but to consider the contexts the algorithms operate in: people, processes and society.
As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was up 0.07%, while the S&P 500 (US500) index decreased by 0.57% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.63% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500) fell to a one-week low, and the NASDAQ (US100) fell to a 2-week low.
Weakness in technology stocks pressured the overall market. Apple (AAPL) shares fell more than 3% yesterday after Barclays downgraded it to a low rating due to concerns about low demand for the iPhone. Shares of chip companies are also under pressure after Bloomberg News reported that ASML Holding NV canceled some shipments of its chip-making machines to China at the request of the Biden administration.
S&P’s US manufacturing PMI for the decade was unexpectedly revised downward to a 6-month low of 47.9 against expectations of an upward revision to 48.4. Tensions in the Middle East escalated after Iran sent a warship into the Red Sea after the US Navy sank three Houthi boats On Sunday.
The December FOMC minutes will be released in the US today. US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear at the December US FOMC meeting that he would like to start cutting rates in 2024, so it is unlikely that there will be any significant revelations in the FOMC minutes. What matters most now is predicting how much the US Fed will cut rates this year. Economists are currently forecasting the probability of a US Fed rate cut in 2024 at 160 basis points. This seems excessive since the US economy is not in recession, and Fed officials are only forecasting three rate cuts of 25 basis points (totaling -75 bps) in 2024. The minutes of the December meeting where these projections were released may reinforce the view that only moderate policy easing will be needed for the year. This may give some confidence to the US dollar, as expectations of a 75-point decline are well below 160. A more dovish FOMC minutes would only increase economists’ confidence in excessive rate cuts, which would hurt the dollar but would be positive for indices and precious metals.
Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Tuesday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.11%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.16% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.79% yesterday, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.15%.
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for the decade was revised upward by 0.2 to 44.4 from an earlier reading of 44.2, but this was the eighteenth consecutive month of declining manufacturing activity.
Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up early gains and declined on Tuesday, falling to 3-week lows. The rally in the dollar index is bearish for energy prices. But rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as lower oil production by major producers, will keep oil from declining significantly in the medium term.
Silver (XAG/USD) was pressured yesterday by concerns over demand for industrial metals after the US S&P Manufacturing Activity Index for December was unexpectedly revised downward to a 6-month low, China’s Manufacturing Activity Index for December unexpectedly contracted at the sharpest pace in 6 months, and the S&P Eurozone Manufacturing Activity Index for December contracted for the eighteenth consecutive month.
Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading due to holidays, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.37% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.52% on Tuesday (year-to-date -15.38%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.49% on the day.
S&P 500 (US500) 4,742.83 −27.00 (−0.57%)
Dow Jones (US30) 37,715.04 +25.50 (+0.07%)
DAX (DE40) 16,769.36 +17.72 (+0.11%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,721.52 −11.72 (−0.15%)
USD Index 102.23 +0.90 (+0.88%)
News feed for 2024.01.03:
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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