Forex and Currency News :: Page 72

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 72

Murrey Math Lines 11.04.2023 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a downward breakout of 5/8 (0.6652) is expected, after which the price could drop to the support at 4/8 (0.6591). The scenario can be canceled if the quotes rise above the resistance at 6/8 (0.6713), which can lead to a trend reversal and growth of the pair to 7/8 (0.6774).

On M15, the decline in the price can be additionally supported by a breakaway of the lower line of the VoltyChannel indicator.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On the NZDUSD chart, the situation is similar. On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend, and the RSI is testing the resistance line. In these circumstances, a downwards breakout of 4/8 (0.6225) is to be expected, after which the price could fall to the support at 2/8 (0.6164). The scenario can be canceled by the price rising above the resistance at 5/8 (0.6256), which can end up in a trend reversal and growth of the pair to 7/8 (0.6317).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken, which confirms the downtrend and increases the probability of further price falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Apr

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD: Consolidation Range and Potential Directional Movements

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair is starting the new week of April balanced, hovering around 1.0900. Market activity was slowed down during the Easter holidays in the US and Europe, but investors are gradually returning to trades.

Last Friday, the US labor market statistics were released, and while they came out almost unnoticed, market participants will have a chance to account for the data in the quotes later. The unemployment rate in March saw a decrease to 3.5%, which was better than expected. Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 236 thousand against the forecasted 228 thousand and 326 thousand previously. The data from February were revised and came out better, which is a positive signal. The average hourly wage also grew by a stable 0.3% m/m.

Although for now, the risk that the economy could slow down has not found any reflection in the employment sector, this margin of safety is unlikely to last long.

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD currency pair has performed an impulse of decline to 1.0875. Currently, the market is forming a consolidation range under this level. There is a possibility of growth to 1.0930, followed by a decline to 1.0760, from where the wave could continue to 1.0720. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows that its signal line is above the zero mark and directed strictly down to renew the lows.

On the H1 chart, the EUR/USD currency pair has completed a structure of the declining wave to 1.0875. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming above this level. The price could break the range upwards and correct to 1.0924. Then, a decline to 1.0820 could follow, with the target being local. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, which shows that its signal line is near 50, expected to grow to 80, and then drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Apr

Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (9,291 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (8,634 contracts), Australian Dollar (8,120 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,579 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,387 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-9,480 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-1,632 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-1,684 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,929 contracts), Japanese Yen (-3,061 contracts) and Bitcoin (-339 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Canadian dollar.

Large speculative Canadian dollar positions fell this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Speculators have now added a total of -29,307 net contracts to the overall bearish position in just the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at -58,509 contracts) to the most bearish level of the past 220 weeks, dating back to January 15th of 2019.

Hurting the Canadian dollar’s appeal has been the recent pause in interest rate rises by the Bank of Canada (after 8 rate hikes previously) as well as the slide in the price of Crude Oil. The Canadian dollar’s exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a multi-year high in May of 2022 at over 0.8280. The CAD front month futures price closed this week at the 0.7431 exchange and has now risen for two straight weeks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-04-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,076	28	14,106	48	-16,154	50	2,048	39
EUR	747,095	74	143,393	74	-194,787	25	51,394	61
GBP	224,690	52	-14,793	56	8,881	40	5,912	70
JPY	178,828	35	-57,036	34	52,266	61	4,770	63
CHF	37,177	26	-8,003	33	10,822	63	-2,819	48
CAD	169,138	43	-58,509	0	58,148	96	361	24
AUD	151,242	50	-27,233	60	36,837	46	-9,604	29
NZD	36,080	24	-4,031	43	2,697	53	1,334	67
MXN	250,403	55	57,913	92	-63,177	8	5,264	89
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	35,244	19	14,003	54	-15,562	46	1,559	56
Bitcoin	13,380	61	-615	66	-183	0	798	31

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (92 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Bitcoin (66 percent), Australian Dollar (60 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (42.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (85.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (65.7 percent)
Bitcoin (66.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (72.1 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (3 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Canadian Dollar (-20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.2 percent)
EuroFX (-8.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-2.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-34.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (71.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (67.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.8 percent)
Bitcoin (3.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.7	1.5	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	51.8	8.3
– Net Position:	14,106	-16,154	2,048
– Gross Longs:	25,574	473	4,703
– Gross Shorts:	11,468	16,627	2,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.1	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	0.8	-26.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 143,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	81.6	5.4
– Net Position:	143,393	-194,787	51,394
– Gross Longs:	225,416	415,104	91,568
– Gross Shorts:	82,023	609,891	40,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	24.7	61.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.4	4.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	59.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	55.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-14,793	8,881	5,912
– Gross Longs:	46,415	133,802	31,247
– Gross Shorts:	61,208	124,921	25,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	40.1	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-19.5	43.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -57,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	74.6	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	45.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-57,036	52,266	4,770
– Gross Longs:	11,523	133,327	32,150
– Gross Shorts:	68,559	81,061	27,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	61.2	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	2.6	35.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	53.9	32.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	24.8	40.5
– Net Position:	-8,003	10,822	-2,819
– Gross Longs:	2,958	20,038	12,249
– Gross Shorts:	10,961	9,216	15,068
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	62.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	-2.0	9.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,509 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	70.2	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	35.9	18.2
– Net Position:	-58,509	58,148	361
– Gross Longs:	16,607	118,790	31,176
– Gross Shorts:	75,116	60,642	30,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.7	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	12.5	5.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	53.1	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	28.7	19.3
– Net Position:	-27,233	36,837	-9,604
– Gross Longs:	46,687	80,257	19,523
– Gross Shorts:	73,920	43,420	29,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	46.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	8.8	-22.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	47.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	39.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-4,031	2,697	1,334
– Gross Longs:	14,280	17,050	4,501
– Gross Shorts:	18,311	14,353	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	52.8	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.7	27.6	12.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	45.9	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	71.1	1.0
– Net Position:	57,913	-63,177	5,264
– Gross Longs:	127,371	114,977	7,808
– Gross Shorts:	69,458	178,154	2,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	8.1	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	71.8	-67.7	-0.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.7	19.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	63.9	6.1
– Net Position:	14,003	-15,562	1,559
– Gross Longs:	24,576	6,964	3,704
– Gross Shorts:	10,573	22,526	2,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.5	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	20.4	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	2.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.6	4.9
– Net Position:	-615	-183	798
– Gross Longs:	10,415	302	1,458
– Gross Shorts:	11,030	485	660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	50.9	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-27.6	9.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Apr

Dollar steadies near long-term support

By ForexTime

The greenback has tumbled since topping out and printing a “doji” candle around a month ago at 105.88 on the widely followed DXY index. The low print yesterday at 101.41 was down over 4% from that peak as the USD has struggled with a huge reset of Fed rate hike bets. Policymakers are very much data dependent with much focus on the non-farm payrolls report out tomorrow amid holiday-thin markets and next week’s US CPI data. Strong support should be found around the early February bottom at 100.82.

Most of the economic releases this week have played into the slower growth narrative with ISM data generally disappointing and the JOLTS job vacancy numbers coming in much lower than expected. In fact, it was the lowest print since May 2021 and jolted the market ahead of the marquee NFP report. Consensus sees around 240,000 job gains in March with the jobless rate sticking at 3.6% and average hourly earnings moving a tick higher to a relatively benign 0.3%. The headline number has continued to surprise to the upside over recent months with 311k new jobs created in February and only marginal revisions.

The odds have flipped back and forth as to whether the FOMC hikes rates by 25bps or stand pat at its meeting at the start of next month. Currently, money markets give the no change camp a 56% chance while a hike is seen as a 44% probability. Of course, Fed rate hike expectations have changed markedly since a month ago before the banking turmoil when investors were seeing a peak, terminal rate above 5.5%. Now, this rate is seen close to where we stand at the moment at 4.75%, with around 80bp of rate cuts into year end.

Cable consolidates after breaking higher

Sterling is managing to hold near its recent highs and above key support. The pound pushed north on Tuesday to its highest level since last June. Certainly, the softer dollar is a boon and comments from a BoE official encouraged bulls to advance beyond key resistance at the year-to-date top at 1.2447. Huw Pill, the bank’s chief economist, said that the MPC still cannot be sure that it has raised interest rates enough to tame inflation. He voted last month to lift rates to 4.25%, its eleventh increase since the start of the hiking cycle in December 2021. Money market currently forecast over 50bps of additional hikes by September, before the bank stops tighening policy.

A weekly close above the Janaury peak at 1.2447 is important for buyers to build on this week’s upside bullish momentum. A long-term move towards the 200-week SMA above 1.28 could be on the cards if that happens. Near-term support below the February top is 1.2274.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

06 Apr

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 06.04.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the resistance level. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The target for the correction might be 1990.00. After testing the support, the price could rebound from it and continue the uptrend. However, the quotes may grow to 2050.00 without testing the support.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, near the resistance NZDUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The target for the pullback might be 0.6260. After a rebound from the support, the quotes could continue the uptrend. However, the price may grow to 0.6340 and continue the uptrend without a test of the support.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, near the support level GBPUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern. Currently, the instrument could go by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The target for the growth might be 1.2500. However, the price may pull back to 1.2400 and continue the uptrend after correcting to the support.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Apr

EUR/USD Struggles to Maintain Balance Amidst Mixed Market Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trading close to the 1.0900 level on the first Tuesday of April. The market is taking into consideration the latest data on the Core PCE index, which grew by only 0.3% m/m in February, lower than the expected figures. The year-to-year data also dropped by 5.0%, which could be a reason for the Federal Reserve System to pause in its monetary policy tightening.

Despite the fact that no meetings of the Fed management are scheduled for April, investors will keep a close eye on important statistics from the US this week. This includes the PMI in services and production, the factory orders report, and the employment market statistics of last month.

Looking at the technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair has formed a structure of a declining impulse to 1.0788 on H4, and the market is currently consolidating above this level. There is a possibility of a link of growth to 1.0850, followed by a decline to 1.0707, from where the wave could extend to 1.0595. The MACD confirms this scenario, with its signal line above zero and aiming downwards to renew the lows.

On H1, the EUR/USD pair has completed the structure of a declining wave to 1.0788, and a consolidation range is forming above this level. The price is expected to break the range upwards, reaching 1.0850, and then decline to 1.0697. The target is local, and this is only half of the declining wave. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line near 50, expected to grow to 80 and then fall to 20.

Overall, the market is closely monitoring the data releases from the US this week and waiting for further signals from the Federal Reserve System to make a weighted decision on its monetary policy.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Apr

Trade Of The Week: More Volatility For AUDNZD After OPEC+ Shocker?

By ForexTime

Following the OPEC+ shocker overnight, commodity currencies have rallied against the New Zealand dollar.

Given the cartels decision to lower oil output by over 1 million barrels per day starting from May, that promises more support for the likes of AUD, CAD and NOK in the months ahead.

However, for the rest of this week Antipodean central bank action could inject more volatility for AUDNZD.

This Antipodean central bank action could also offer a break from the dollar ahead of Friday’s US jobs report.

Investors will be served a central bank combo this week featuring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). There are mixed expectations over what to expect from the RBA while the RBNZ is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points. But before we take a deep dive into how the pending central bank decisions could play out, it is worth keeping in mind that the aussie weakened against most G10 currencies in Q1 2023.

It was a similar theme for the New Zealand dollar which weakened across the board.

Taking a brief look at the technical picture, the AUDNZD remains trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at 1.0675 and resistance at 1.0800.

Zooming out, the weekly charts look like a choppy affair with another layer of resistance found at 1.0900 and key support at 1.0470. The current price action suggests that the AUDNZD could be waiting for a fresh fundamental catalyst to make its next big move.

What to expect from the RBA on Tuesday?

Expectations remain split on whether the RBA will hike interest rates by 25 basis points or leave them unchanged. If the central bank opts for the latter, this will be the first pause since lifting interest rates in May 2022.

It’s been an incredible run for RBA hawks with rates rising by 3.5% in ten straight hikes between May last year and March 2023. However, the party could be coming to an end thanks to slower-than-expected inflation and repeated signs of slowing economic growth. On top of this, the recent market turmoil following the collapse of 3 US banks and the Credit Suisse drama have strengthened the argument for a potential pause. Given the rising unemployment and weak growth, the central bank is likely to adopt a cautious stance regardless of whether rates are hiked or left unchanged. The key question is if this meeting will mark the end of the hiking cycle. The Aussie could be in store for a world of pain if the RBA stands pat on rates, strikes a cautious note, and signals that the next move may be a rate cut.

RBNZ expected to hike rates

It will be wise to pay very close attention to the RBA meeting, considering how it will be the first G10 central bank decision after the OPEC+ shocker.

Initially, expectations were split on whether the RBA will hike interest rates by 25 basis points or leave them unchanged. However, the latest developments concerning OPEC+ have boosted the prospects of higher oil prices – ultimately fuelling fears of higher inflation. This could bring not only RBA hawks back into the scene but may prompt other central banks to turn hawkish once again. Much attention will be directed to any comments made by the RBA relating to the spike in oil prices and any potential impact on the central bank’s monetary policy stance.

It’s been an incredible run for RBA hawks with rates rising by 3.5% in ten straight hikes between May last year and March 2023. But the party could be coming to an end thanks to slower-than-expected inflation and repeated signs of slowing economic growth. On top of this, the recent market turmoil following the collapse of 3 US banks and the Credit Suisse drama have strengthened the argument for a potential pause. Given the rising unemployment and weak growth, the central bank has the potential to adopt a cautious stance. Ultimately, the key question is what impact the OPEC+ shocker will have on the monetary policy outlook and whether this may lead to further hikes down the road.

If the central bank leaves rates unchanged, this will be the first pause since lifting interest rates in May 2022. The Aussie could be in store for a world of pain on this outcome, especially if the RBA signals that this could be the end of the hiking cycle.

AUDNZD in breakout mode

The AUDNZD has been trapped within a range since early March. On the daily timeframe, prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the MACD trades below zero. Zooming out on the weekly charts, the trend is turning bearish thanks to the consistent lower lows and lower highs. However, the support at 1.0675 has halted bears in their tracks for the past four weeks.

A major breakout could be on the horizon with the pending central bank decisions acting as fundamental sparks. A strong daily close above 1.0800 could inspire an incline towards 1.0900 and 1.1030, respectively. If prices are able to break under 1.0675, this may open a path toward 1.0470.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Apr

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.04.03

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0904
Prev Close: 1.0841
% chg. over the last day: -0.58 %

For the last month, the inflation rate in the Eurozone declined from 8.5% to 6.9% on an annualized basis. But the core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) remains steady. Last month’s increase was 0.1%, annualized at 5.6% to 5.7%, which is a new record. After the published data, ECB head Christine Lagarde pointed out that core inflation remains too high, but the economy is resilient, the financial system is strong, and the recent banking stress will not hinder the fight against inflation. Thus, analysts are betting on another 0.5% rate hike at the May meeting of Europe’s Central Bank.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0770, 1.0680, 1.0519, 1.0482
Resistance levels: 1.0839, 1.0924, 1.1017

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. At the moment, the price is correcting and trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, with no signs of divergence. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0770, but only with confirmation. It is worth buying after confirmation on the intraday time frames in the form of a structure change. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0839, subject to a reversal.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0711 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.04.03:

– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2380
Prev Close: 1.2329
% chg. over the last day: -0.41 %

The British GDP grew by 0.1% in the last quarter. Thus, the UK managed to avoid a technical recession. According to the latest Bank of England monetary policy report, inflation is expected to fall significantly in the second quarter of 2023 due to the extension of the energy price guarantee (EPG) announced in the new budget and falling wholesale energy prices. The Bank of England may not need to raise rates aggressively in the coming months. The next Bank of England meeting is in mid-May, giving Governor Bailey plenty of time to process a range of fresh data on inflation, GDP, and employment. Recent data on the likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of England shows that one 25 basis point rate hike is expected in the second quarter before the Central Bank hits the pause button.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2266, 1.2178, 1.2112, 1.2009, 1.1963, 1.1929, 1.1843
Resistance levels: 1.2343, 1.2415, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But now the price is correcting. The MACD indicator has become negative, and there is weak seller’s pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is best to consider buying after a pullback to the nearest support level of 1.2266 but with confirmation in the form of a reverse reaction. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.2343, with confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2178 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.04.03:

– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 132.68
Prev Close: 132.76
% chg. over the last day: +0.06 %

A senior International Monetary Fund official said Friday the Bank of Japan should consider more flexible changes to long-term interest rates even as it maintains an ultra-soft monetary policy. The IMF sees bilateral risks to Japan’s inflation outlook: “upside surprises” stem from larger-than-expected wage hikes resulting from companies’ spring talks with labor unions. Japan’s central bank may ease the burden on financial institutions by allowing the longer end of the curve (YCC) to move more in line with its policy of controlling bond yields. Markets are full of rumors that the Bank of Japan may modify or abandon the YCC to mitigate the side effects of this approach when new Governor Kazuo Ueda and his team fully assume office.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 132.47, 131.90, 130.91, 127.80
Resistance levels: 133.84, 135.11, 136.07, 137.91

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY has changed to bullish. At the moment, the price is trading above the moving averages, and there is buying pressure. But the MACD indicator is overbought, and there is a divergence. It is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 132.47 or 131.90, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 133.84, but also with additional confirmation in the change of structure on the intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below the 130.91 support level, the downtrend will be resumed with a high probability.

News feed for 2023.04.03:

– Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3521
Prev Close: 1.3515
% chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

The Canadian economy is recovering. The latest GDP data showed that the economy added 0.5% for the month of March (expectation of 0.4%). Overall, the economy for the fourth and first quarters is ahead of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts and continues to show resilience. The Bank of Canada’s GDP forecasts for the two quarters are trending upward. Markets are estimating a quarter-point cut in the Bank of Canada’s rate by September or October this year. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ producers on Sunday announced voluntary cuts in oil production. This is positive for the Canadian dollar because, as a commodity currency, production cuts tend to drive up oil prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3515
Resistance levels: 1.3568, 1.3616, 1.3644, 1.3694, 1.3722, 1.3786, 1.3814, 1.3862

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. But the MACD indicator is oversold, and there are signs of divergence, which suggests that an upward correction should be expected in the near future. Under such market conditions, it is better to buy from the support level of 1.3515 but with a confirmation in the form of a change in the structure on the lower time frames. Sell positions can be sought from the resistance level of 1.3568, but only with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3694, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.04.03:

– OPEC Meeting (m/m) at 13:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Apr

Currency Speculators continued to trim their Japanese Yen bearish positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,370 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (3,106 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,173 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,223 contracts), EuroFX (183 contracts) and Bitcoin (345 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-3,586 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (-2,251 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,374 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,425 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators continued to trim their bearish positions

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the improvement of the speculator’s positioning for the Japanese yen. Large speculative Japanese yen positions gained this week by over +12,000 net contracts and rose for a third straight week with a total change of +21,328 contracts over that 3-week period.

The yen, overall, has been in a continuous bearish standing for the past 107 weeks, dating back to March of 2021. The height of the yen bearish positions (eleven straight weeks over -90,000 contracts) was in April and May of 2022 while the bearish level reached a position of -102,618 contracts as recently as October 25th. Since that recent low, the yen positioning has improved markedly with positions falling to as low as -20,060 contracts on January 31st. This week’s gain marks the best in the past fifteen weeks and brings the overall net position (currently at -53,975 contracts) to the least bearish level since February 21st.

The yen spot price has been on the move since dropping to a multi-decade low against the US Dollar in October. The USDJPY currency pair had surged as high as 151.94 on October 17th but has now come back down to the 130s level with the currency pair closing out this week at 132.83.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Mar-28-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	31,128	26	12,719	46	-15,085	52	2,366	42
EUR	732,506	68	145,025	74	-191,248	26	46,223	53
GBP	199,868	37	-24,084	48	22,577	49	1,507	61
JPY	169,473	31	-53,975	36	57,562	64	-3,587	46
CHF	34,856	17	-6,074	39	10,733	63	-4,659	42
CAD	176,559	48	-56,825	0	63,417	99	-6,592	8
AUD	151,238	50	-35,353	52	45,830	53	-10,477	27
NZD	31,981	13	-6,610	36	6,553	62	57	52
MXN	233,669	49	49,279	86	-53,828	15	4,549	85
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	42,663	30	23,483	66	-30,522	27	7,039	100
Bitcoin	14,409	69	-276	72	-271	0	547	25

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (86 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Bitcoin (72 percent), Brazilian Real (66 percent) and the Australian Dollar (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (36 percent), Japanese Yen (36 percent) and the Swiss Franc (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.5 percent)
EuroFX (74.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (35.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (35.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (29.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (85.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (67.4 percent)
Bitcoin (72.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.1 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (67 percent) and the Bitcoin (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-20 percent), Japanese Yen (-16 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (-7.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-16.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (3.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-20.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-22.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-9.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (67.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.8 percent)
Bitcoin (8.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (9.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	1.8	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	50.2	7.6
– Net Position:	12,719	-15,085	2,366
– Gross Longs:	24,552	545	4,737
– Gross Shorts:	11,833	15,630	2,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	51.8	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.7	-19.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 145,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 144,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	56.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	82.2	5.4
– Net Position:	145,025	-191,248	46,223
– Gross Longs:	222,918	410,545	85,724
– Gross Shorts:	77,893	601,793	39,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	25.9	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.9	-2.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	66.6	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	55.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-24,084	22,577	1,507
– Gross Longs:	28,355	133,149	26,264
– Gross Shorts:	52,439	110,572	24,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	49.4	61.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	-7.8	30.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	77.9	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	44.0	16.6
– Net Position:	-53,975	57,562	-3,587
– Gross Longs:	9,717	132,070	24,593
– Gross Shorts:	63,692	74,508	28,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	63.7	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	10.6	8.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	57.0	29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	26.2	42.6
– Net Position:	-6,074	10,733	-4,659
– Gross Longs:	3,978	19,865	10,185
– Gross Shorts:	10,052	9,132	14,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	62.7	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-2.2	-0.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	70.4	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	34.5	21.1
– Net Position:	-56,825	63,417	-6,592
– Gross Longs:	19,672	124,285	30,744
– Gross Shorts:	76,497	60,868	37,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.3	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	18.4	-12.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	55.2	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.3	24.9	19.7
– Net Position:	-35,353	45,830	-10,477
– Gross Longs:	43,813	83,523	19,330
– Gross Shorts:	79,166	37,693	29,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	53.1	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	16.5	-38.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	58.3	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	37.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-6,610	6,553	57
– Gross Longs:	9,720	18,639	3,467
– Gross Shorts:	16,330	12,086	3,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	61.9	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.3	39.6	-13.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 49,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	50.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	73.1	1.1
– Net Position:	49,279	-53,828	4,549
– Gross Longs:	109,417	116,939	7,079
– Gross Shorts:	60,138	170,767	2,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	14.8	84.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	67.4	-62.7	-7.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.9	19.3	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	90.8	3.3
– Net Position:	23,483	-30,522	7,039
– Gross Longs:	25,968	8,231	8,429
– Gross Shorts:	2,485	38,753	1,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	6.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	27.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	3.5	45.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.5	1.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.4	3.7	6.3
– Net Position:	-276	-271	547
– Gross Longs:	11,168	263	1,449
– Gross Shorts:	11,444	534	902
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	47.0	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-28.3	2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

30 Mar

Yen sinks as risk mood improves

By ForexTime

Markets are enjoying the fading turmoil from the banking crisis with the Nasdaq 100 especially notable with its recent outperformance. The tech-laden index is up over 20% from its December lows as megacap growth stocks lap up the lower interest rate environment sparked initially by the recent market upheaval. The longer-term impact of the turmoil is yet to sink into the wider economy. But tighter credit and potential regulations will have a dampening effect on economic activity and may also curb the Fed’s appetite for higher rates ahead.

This means the dollar could find it hard to strengthen significantly going forward. We did get positive US consumer confidence data earlier this week which surprised to the upside. Recent market jitters and focus on the risk of a US recession saw low expectations for the data. But the strong job market seems to be supporting sentiment and eyes will soon turn to the latest non-farm payrolls report next Friday.

In the near-term, today’s calendar sees the final release of the fourth quarter US GDP figures. These are backward-looking but will inform on how the economy entered the new year. All eyes will then swiftly turn to tomorrow’s US core PCE data. This is the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge as it is a far broader measure of inflation than just the widely watched CPI numbers, which are only based on survey data from consumers. Hopes are high that price pressures show a further decline, and there will be a lot of attention on services inflation which is proving sticky.

Month-end and quarter end flows affecting USD/JPY

The yen has been hit from two sides this week. Better risk sentiment has seen the safe haven JPY suffer. Higher Treasury yields as markets unwind dovish Fed bets have also supported buyers in USD/JPY, while month-end and quarter-end flows are said to act as additional headwinds. The major has hit the 50-day simple moving average at 132.73. The halfway point of the 2022 rally sits close by as further resistance at 132.70.

USD/CAD breaking down

The CAD has been in the doldrums recently as commodities struggled. Interestingly, the latest CFTC data release, which shows positions held by major hedge funds and commercial speculators, highlighted the biggest net short in the loonie since 2008. For contrarian traders, this type of signal can provide a chance to run against the prevailing “wisdom of the crowd”.

That is pretty much what we’ve seen this week as better risk sentiment and oil prices have helped the highly commodity-sensitive currency. The major printed a “doji” candlestick earlier this month after hitting a five-month high at 1.3862. That top got close to long-term trendline resistance going back to the March 2020 spike. The “doji” warned of indecision and since then prices have traded around 1.37 and a minor Fib level (23.6%) of the August rally at 1.3682, before breaking down earlier this week. The 50-day simple moving average at 1.3538 may act as initial support with the 100-day moving average at 1.3516.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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