InvestMacro

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.17110
• Open: 1.17816
• % chg. over the last day: +0.52
• Day’s range: 1.17745 – 1.18002
• 52 wk range: 1.0637 – 1.2012

During yesterday’s trading session, the greenback weakened against its main competitors. EUR/USD quotes have reached the round level of 1.1800. The 1.1765 mark is already a “mirror” support. The demand for the US currency has weakened amid worries about Donald Trump’s health and the US elections. Investors continue to monitor the progress of negotiations in the US Congress on a new stimulus package. The trading instrument has the potential for further growth. We recommend opening positions from key levels.

The news feed on 2020.10.06:

• – JOLTS job openings at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speeches by the presidents of the ECB and the Fed.

Indicators signal the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1765, 1.1740, 1.1700
• Resistance levels: 1.1800, 1.1850

If the price fixes above 1.1800, further growth in EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.1840-1.1860.

An alternative could be a decline in the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1740-1.1710.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.29321
• Open: 1.29728
• % chg. over the last day: +0.37
• Day’s range: 1.29627 – 1.30070
• 52 wk range: 1.1409 – 1.3516

GBP/USD quotes show a positive trend. The British pound has updated its two-week highs. The trading instrument found resistance near the round level of 1.3000. The 1.2950 mark is already a “mirror” support. The demand for greenback is still quite low. The GBP/USD currency pair has the potential for further growth. Positions should be opened from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), the UK construction PMI will be published.

Indicators signal the power of buyers: the price has fixed above 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy GBP/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900, 1.2830
• Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3050

If the price fixes above 1.3000, further growth of the GBP/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to 1.3040-1.3060.

An alternative could be a drop in GBP/USD quotes to the round level of 1.2900.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32982
• Open: 1.32587
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21
• Day’s range: 1.32419 – 1.32733
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4669

The bearish sentiment prevails on the USD/CAD currency pair. USD/CAD quotes have updated local lows again. At the moment, the loonie is consolidating in the range of 1.3245-1.3280. The demand for the US dollar is still quite low. The trading instrument has the potential for further decline. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of oil prices. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3245, 1.3200
• Resistance levels: 1.3280, 1.3300, 1.3330

If the price fixes below 1.3245, a further fall in USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.3200.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3300-1.3330.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 105.276
• Open: 105.714
• % chg. over the last day: +0.19
• Day’s range: 105.546 – 105.783
• 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair has stabilized near two-week highs. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors expect additional drivers. The key support and resistance levels are 105.50 and 105.80, respectively. USD/JPY quotes are tending to decline. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is quite calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: 50 MA has crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/JPY.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 105.50, 105.40, 105.25
• Resistance levels: 105.80, 106.00

If the price fixes below 105.50, USD/JPY quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 105.25-105.00.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair to 106.00-106.20.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

The US dollar is declining against a basket of currency majors. Yesterday, the US dollar index (#DX) updated local lows and closed in the red zone (-0.39%). US President Donald Trump drew new criticism on Tuesday after returning from the hospital after four days of treatment for COVID-19. At the same time, he urged people not to be afraid of the disease. Trump arrived at the White House and defiantly removed his surgical mask on-camera. “I learned a lot about COVID. Don’t let it dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it. You’re going to beat it. We have the best medical equipment. We have the best medicines, all developed recently,” said the US President.

The British pound is growing after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen agreed to reopen talks on a post-Brexit deal. The British pound is also supported by optimistic economic data. Thus, the composite PMI index counted to 56.5 in September, while experts expected 55.7. Services PMI counted to 56.1 and turned out to be better than the forecasted of 55.1.

Today, during the Asian trading session, the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its interest rate unchanged. As expected, the regulator left the indicator at 0.25% per annum.

The “black gold” prices are consolidating. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the $39.30 mark per barrel. At 23:30 (GMT+3:00), API weekly crude oil stock will be published.

Market indicators

Yesterday, there was the bullish sentiment in the US stock market: #SPY (+1.77%), #DIA (+1.70%), #QQQ (+2.13%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield has started rising. The indicator has reached 0.76-0.77%.

• – UK construction PMI at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
• – EIA short-term energy outlook at 15:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – JOLTS job openings at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

We also recommend paying attention to the speeches by the presidents of the ECB and the Fed.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By IFCMarkets.com

US dollar bearish bets decrease resumed with total net shorts falling to $30.47 billion from $33.60 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to September 29 and released on Friday October 2. The decrease in net short dollar bets was the result of mainly British Pound net long bets turning into net shorts, as well as decline in bullish bets on Australian dollar, yen and euro as Markit flash eurozone services PMI dropped to 47.6 from 51.9 in September while manufacturing purchasing managers index’s rose to 53.7 from 51.7. Dollar bearish bets declined despite the Labor Department report above expected 870 thousand Americans filed for first-time jobless benefits and Federal Reserve Fed chair Powell told interest rates would remain low until at least 2024 and “there is a long way to go” for recovery from the economic downturn. At the same time Census Bureau reported orders for durable goods rose 0.4% on month in August, the fourth straight gain, when 1.1% increase was expected. And Markit’s composite purchasing managers index flash reading declined to 54.4 in September from 54.6 in the prior month, signaling a slower pace of growth.

CFTC Sentiment vs Exchange Rate

September 29 2020	Bias	Ex RateTrend	Position $ mln	Weekly Change
CAD	bearish	positive	-1415	4
AUD	bullish	positive	637	-534
EUR	bullish	positive	27606	-316
GBP	bullish	positive	-1024	-1260
CHF	bullish	positive	1731	-433
JPY	bullish	nuetral	2933	-591
		Total	30467

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets.com

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By Orbex

EURGBP Retreats on Signs of Brexit Progress

The pound sterling could be the mover and shaker after Brexit headlines kicked off volatility at the end of last week. EU officials have confirmed that both sides are in talks of ‘next steps’, a sign of progress that has put investors in a cautiously optimistic mood.

One is seldom accustomed to a smooth ride when it comes to trading the Brexit-sensitive pound. Volatility is likely to remain high considering the fact that London has yet to drop the contentious internal market bill.

Positive news could push the euro below 0.9 and towards 0.8880. The lack of it, however, would mean that the pair could rise back to challenge 0.9210.

USDCHF Struggles After Lackluster Jobs Data

The US dollar has started a timid rebound from February 2015’s low as investors took some bets off riskier assets.

Uncertainty around the upcoming fiscal stimulus has given the greenback some respite. Whether it will be $1.6 or $2.2 trillion as proposed by Democrats and Republicans respectively, the major concern is if the check could be written before the election. Friday’s job numbers fell short of expectations and that may instill a sense of urgency among policymakers.

The pair’s rally would be sustainable as long as it stays above 0.9050. Further up, strong selling interests could be lying around 0.9450.

AUDJPY Halts Advance on Potential Rate Cut

Investors buying dips have helped the Australian dollar bounce back from its three month low. Global sentiment has turned upbeat with rallies across equity markets and encouraging Chinese data suggests strength in the economic recovery. All these would be supportive of the risk-sensitive Aussie.

However, the currency might struggle going into Tuesday’s RBA meeting, a major risk event as markets anticipate an interest rate cut. Should the central bank postpone the easing until November, the Aussie could see more buying interests.

77.70 is a key hurdle on the upside while 74.00 is the immediate support level.

CADCHF in Consolidation as Oil Goes Sideways

Uptick in investor sentiment has yet benefited the Canadian dollar which is stuck in its recent trading range. With oil prices moving sideways, the commodity-related loonie is looking for a strong enough catalyst to commit to a direction. Friday’s jobs data may tilt the balance. A crippled labor market may thwart the pair’s latest rebound.

A positive reading, however, could push the loonie to challenge the psychological level of 0.7000. In the meantime, traders are bound to range-trading opportunities within a 7-month-long consolidation area between 0.66 and 0.72.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is correcting to the upside after finishing the descending wave and has already reached 23.6% fibo but may be over quite soon. Later, the market may resume falling towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1836.50 and 1736.30 respectively. The resistance remains at the high at 2074.75 but it may relocate to 1927.40 after the asset reaches 38.2% fibo at 1836.50.

The H1 chart shows a new descending wave after the local divergence, which has already reached 38.2% fibo. However, if XAUUSD rebounds from this level and then breaks the high at 1917.00, it may reach 61.8% fibo at 1926.00. Still, if the pair fails to rebounds, it may continue falling towards 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1882.80, 1874.85, and 1865.20 respectively. The key target of this wave will be the low at 1848.67.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the daily chart, after a test of the long-term 38.2% fibo and the convergence on MACD, USDCHF has reached 23.6% fibo; right now, it is correcting to the downside. After the correction is over, the asset may resume trading upwards to reach 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 0.9472, 0.9617, and 0.9764 respectively. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may yet break the support at 0.8999 and then reach the long-term 50.0% fibo at 0.8707.

In the H4 chart, the asset is correcting downwards and has already reached 50.0% fibo. After reaching 61.8% fibo at 0.9144, the pair is expected to start a new rising impulse towards the high at 0.9296 or even higher.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still consolidating around 1.1720. Today, the pair may grow to reach 1.1744 and then resume falling towards 1.1684. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure to return to 1.1720 and then continue trading within the downtrend with the first target at 1.1673.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating at 1.2900. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 1.2966 and then form a new descending structure towards 1.2828 or even continue falling with the first target at 1.2740.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After finishing the ascending correctional structure at 78.80, USDRUB is expected to form a new descending wave with the first target at 76.40.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still forming the fifth structure of the current ascending wave with the target at 106.00. After that, the instrument may fall towards 105.00, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may form start another decline with the target at 103.25.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading close to the downside border of a wide consolidation range. The main scenario implies that the price may expand the range down to 0.9155 and then start another growth towards the upside border at 0.9218. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume moving upwards with the target at 0.9283 or even 0.9350.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After completing two descending structures along with the correction at 0.7188, AUDUSD is expected to form the third one with the first target at 0.7017. After that, the instrument may correct in the form of a Flag pattern towards 0.7160 and then resume trading downwards to reach 0.7070.

BRENT

After finishing the descending wave at 39.00, Brent is expected to grow towards 40.80 and then start another correction to reach 40.00, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may continue moving upwards with the first target at 43.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1893.60, Gold is expected to consolidate around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may correct towards 1905.00; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 1882.50.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After falling and reaching 10400.00, BTCUSD has finished the correction towards 10700.00. Today, the asset may form a new descending structure to break 10400.00 and then continue trading within the downtrend with the short-term target at 9600.00.

S&P 500

After finishing the descending impulse at 3310.2, the S&P index has completed the correction towards 3372.0; right now, it is consolidating below the latter level. Possibly, the asset may form a new descending structure to break 3300.0 and then resume falling with the short-term target at 3202.5.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.17434
• Open: 1.17110
• % chg. over the last day: -0.29
• Day’s range: 1.17052 – 1.17357
• 52 wk range: 1.0637 – 1.2012

The technical pattern on the EUR/USD currency pair is still ambiguous. The trading instrument continues to consolidate. On Friday, the US published quite weak report on the labor market for September. At the moment, financial market participants expect up-to-date information on Donald Trump’s health status, who caught the coronavirus. The negotiations in the US Congress on a new stimulus package for the country’s economy are in the spotlight. EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.1700-1.1740. We recommend opening positions from these marks.

The news feed on 2020.10.05:

• – Data on economic activity in the Eurozone at 11:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed the 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark. There are no signals at the moment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell EUR/USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1680, 1.1640
• Resistance levels: 1.1740, 1.1770, 1.1800

If the price fixes above 1.1740, further growth of EUR/USD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.1770-1.1800.

An alternative could be a decline in the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.1670-1.1650.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.28780
• Open: 1.29321
• % chg. over the last day: +0.33
• Day’s range: 1.28996 – 1.29538
• 52 wk range: 1.1409 – 1.3516

Trading activity and volatility on the GBP/USD currency pair remain high. At the same time, the British pound is still in a sideways trend. At the moment, the local support and resistance levels are 1.2890 and 1.2950, respectively. Investors expect new information regarding the Brexit talks. Today, financial market participants will assess important economic releases from the UK and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.

At 11:30 (GMT+3:00), a number of indicators on economic activity in the UK will be published.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is testing 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark. There are no signals at the moment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which gives a signal to sell GBP/USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2890, 1.2830, 1.2800
• Resistance levels: 1.2950, 1.2975, 1.3000

If the price fixes above 1.2950, further growth of the GBP/USD currency pair is expected. The movement is tending to the round level of 1.3000.

An alternative could be a drop in GBP/USD quotes to 1.2840-1.2820.

Open Account

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.32883
• Open: 1.32982
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15
• Day’s range: 1.32722 – 1.33031
• 52 wk range: 1.2949 – 1.4669

Sales prevail on the USD/CAD currency pair. The loonie is testing local lows. At the moment, USD/CAD quotes are consolidating near the 1.3270 mark. The round level of 1.3300 is the nearest resistance. The trading instrument has the potential for further decline. We recommend paying attention to the economic releases from the US, as well as to the dynamics of “black gold” prices. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Canada’s economy is calm.

Indicators signal the power of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3270, 1.3240, 1.3200
• Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3330, 1.3355

If the price fixes below 1.3270, a further drop in USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.3240-1.3220.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/CAD currency pair to 1.3330-1.3360.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 105.530
• Open: 105.276
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16
• Day’s range: 105.232 – 105.637
• 52 wk range: 101.19 – 112.41

The USD/JPY currency pair has recovered most of its losses after a sharp decline on Friday. At the moment, the trading instrument is consolidating. The key support and resistance levels are 105.40 and 105.65, respectively. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. We recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US government bonds yield. Positions should be opened from key levels.

The news feed on Japan’s economy is quite calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price has crossed the 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which indicates the bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line has crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 105.40, 105.25, 104.95
• Resistance levels: 105.65, 105.80, 106.00

If the price fixes below 105.40, USD/JPY quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 105.00-104.80.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY currency pair to the round level of 106.00.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

On Monday, October 5th, the major currency pair is gaining in weight and moving at 1.1731.

The market is slowly restoring to its balanced state: the Trumps are sick but not as serious as market players thought, the speed at which COVID-19 is spreading around the world is high but everyone got used to it, and the statistics on the US labor market turned out to be more neutral than expected.

The Unemployment Rate in the USA went down to 7.9% in September after being 8.4% in the previous month, which is better than the expected reading of 8.2%. The Average Hourly Earnings added only 0.1% m/m after expanding by 0.3% m/m the month before, while the Non-Farm Payroll showed 661K and that’s much worse than expected. However, it’s quite clear that the sector is not elastic and can’t expand and create new jobs on a regular basis.

On the other hand, it is apparent that the risks are reducing, thus allowing the major currency pair to get back to more or less strong levels.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed the ascending wave at 1.1768; right now, it is consolidating around 1.1720. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the downside to reach 1.1680 and then form one more ascending structure to test 1.1720 from below. After that, the instrument may fall to return to 1.1680 and then start a new correction towards 1.1720, which may be followed by another decline to break 1.1680. Later, the market may continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1584. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is no longer moving inside the histogram area. Later, the line is expected to fall towards 0 and break it. If it happens, the asset may boost its decline on the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after completing two descending impulses towards 1.1695, EUR/USD is correcting to reach 1.1744. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the first target at 1.1680. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 80 to the downside, its signal line is moving downwards steadily. Later, it may continue falling to reach and break 50. After the line break 50, the asset may boost its decline on the price chart.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.