Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 262

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.06.23

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1917
  • Prev Close: 1.1941
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

The continued soft monetary policy from the US is negative for the dollar index and positive for the European currency. From a fundamental point of view, investors expect the EUR/USD quote to grow. A lot of macrostatistics from Europe will be released today.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1920, 1.1835, 1.1809
  • Resistance levels: 1.2002, 1.2050, 1.2109, 1.2144, 1.2174, 1.2212, 1.2243

The EUR/USD currency pair showed the first signs of initiative from the buyers. The price returned above the level of 1.1920. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. But the trend is still bearish. Under such market conditions, traders can look for both sell trades from the resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2144 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.06.23:
  • – France Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Service PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3932
  • Prev Close: 1.3948
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.11%

The situation on the GBP/USD currency pair remains unchanged. The acceleration of economic growth in the UK is still limited by the tight quarantine due to the new Indian COVID-19 strain. But considering the weakness of the dollar, the British currency will slowly strengthen.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3767
  • Resistance levels: 1.3931, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101, 1.4138, 1.4191

The GBP/USD trend is bearish on the H1 timeframe. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving average. The MACD indicator returned to the positive zone. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for both sell trades from the resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels on the intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.4101 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2021.06.23:
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Service PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 110.22
  • Prev Close: 110.66
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.39%

The USD/JPY currency pair increased by 0.39% at the end of the day. In the Asian session tonight, the growth continued. The price confidently broke out through 2 resistance levels, indicating a strong bullish pressure. The Japanese currency looks very weak now.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.23,110.47, 110.73, 109.83, 109.62, 109.31
  • Resistance levels: 110.94, 111.48

The trend remains bullish. The price is trading above the moving average, the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, traders are better to buy from support levels and to sell from resistance levels, but only on lower timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.83, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2359
  • Prev Close: 1.2305
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.44%

The USD/CAD currency pair shows downward corrective movement within the uptrend. But the fundamental picture remains mixed. On the one hand, the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is correlated with oil prices, which show strong growth. On the other hand, continued soft monetary policy from the US weakens the dollar index. Therefore, as soon as the market reaction to the Fed’s statements is over, the experts believe the USD/CAD quotes to decline in the mid-term.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2321, 1.2251, 1.2190, 1,2148 1.2121, 1.2096
  • Resistance levels: 1.2404, 1.2478, 1.2519

Technically, the trend remains bullish. The price is now trading above the moving average, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone with no signs of reversal. Buyers should wait for the price to get to the support levels and then look for long trades. There are no optimal entry points for sell positions right now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2190 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2021.06.23:
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Powell calms markets

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

After the hawkish surprise last week from the Fed when the FOMC spooked markets by signalling much earlier rate hikes than expected, Chair Powell struck a decidedly more cautious tone yesterday. He repeated the temporary nature of current price pressures and although the recent debate on QE is on the cards, the Fed is nowhere near hiking interest rates. Other Fed officials this week have spread a similar message with New York Fed President Williams warning overnight that the recovery requires more time.

The latest smoke signals from the Fed all point to September as the key meeting when the Fed is most probably able to declare that substantial progress towards their goals has been achieved. This means we should perhaps pencil in the Jackson Hole symposium in August as the precursor to this where Powell really preps the markets.

Stocks certainly gained from the more dovish rhetoric with the tech-laden Nasdaq hitting fresh record highs. The broader S&P500 gained too with only the defensive utilities sector in the red. European bourses have opened up this morning marginally higher after Asian markets posted solid gains.

Dollar holding up for now

After hitting a two-month high at the end of last week, the greenback has suffered two days of losses and given back roughly a third of its sharp gains posted since the FOMC meeting last Wednesday.

Commodity-linked currencies benefitted the most from the more cautious Powell and this may be the case through the summer as those central banks on the hiking cycle see their currencies appreciate the most.

EUR/USD too was helped by markets breathing a sigh of relief, although the 1.20 barrier above is formidable with a confluence of resistance including the 50% retracement level and the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages below and above.

EUR/GBP moving lower ahead of BoE

We get UK and European PMI data released today and traders will be on the look out for signs that we have seen a peak in manufacturing and a pick up in services due to covid restrictions easing.  EUR/GBP also has to contend with the Bank of England meeting tomorrow, which my colleague Han Tan discussed yesterday and the potential for a hawkish surprise.

Perhaps the market read the report as sterling has appreciated against almost every single G10 currency today and EUR/GBP is breaking down through recent support at 0.8542. The downward trendline from the December high has acted as resistance above and bears have their eyes on the cycle low at 0.8472.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Trade of the Week: GBP to soar on wings of BOE hawks?

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

GBPUSD was walloped last week, posting a decline of 2.11% for the period – its largest weekly drop since September 2020. The US dollar surged in the wake of the Fed’s hawkish surprise, sending cable below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and also blew past its lower Bollinger band.

However, the currency pair is now testing its 100-SMA as a key resistance, having recovered from near-oversold conditions when its 14-day relative strength index almost hit the 30 mark which typically denotes oversold conditions.

BOE to deliver another hawkish surprise?

Traders are certainly going to watch closely Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting for any signs that policymakers could be readying to start withdrawing their support measures sooner than expected.

To be clear, the BOE is widely expected to leave the policy settings untouched this week. However, after the Fed’s surprise pivot last week, any hawkish signals out of this side of the pond could give GBPUSD a solid leg up above its 100-SMA.

There’s been enough market chatter about the BOE potentially towing the same line as the Fed.

Note that UK inflation rose by 2.1% year-on-year in May, surpassing the central bank’s target of 2%. Even with the low base effect (comparison from May 2020), there were enough price pressures linked to the UK economic reopening as seen in prices of clothing, footwear, restaurants and even hotels.

Also, outgoing BOE Chief Economist Andy Haldane had been sounding the alarm about soaring inflation. At the BOE’s meeting in May, he had already voted for a paring back of the central bank’s asset purchases. Likely to vote the same way this week, it remains to be seen whether Haldane can get more to adopt similar hawkish tones at his final meeting as an MPC member.

BOE still mindful of key risks

Still, policymakers are cognisant of several major factors which may kept the MPC sticking to its dovish stance. The delta variant of the coronavirus has already forced a delay to the UK economy’s full reopening. The UK’s furlough scheme is due to end at end-September, and the unemployment rate could tick higher once more.

Should any of these downside risks become more prominent, that could afford more runway for the MPC before they have to think about reining in its asset purchases which target 895 billion pounds at present. Of course, the opposite could happen too. If these downside risks subside meaningfully, that could ramp up the BOE’s willingness to ease up on its asset purchases.

On top of that, the BOE’s next set of economic forecasts are not due until August. Perhaps policymakers might wait until then to signal its change in tactics, with the updated forecast figures then giving more credence to the eventual pivot.

Markets turning bullish on Sterling

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week through 15 June, leveraged funds raised their net long positions on the Pound for a second consecutive week to reach its highest level since April 2021. Asset managers however did the opposite, reducing their net GBP long positions for a second straight week to its lowest since mid-May.

Of course, this latest batch of CFTC data was for the period leading up to the Fed shocker; it’ll make for fascinating reading to see how markets’ positions have altered post-Fed.

In fact, Sterling has strengthened against most of its G10 peers, barring the US dollar and the Japanese Yen, in the days since last week’s FOMC meeting.

 

GBP Index to set new 2021 high?

Perhaps the optimism surrounding the UK economy that has fed into the Pound’s performance is best encapsulated in the GBP index, which is an equally-weighted index comprising the following pairs:

The GBP Index’s 20-day SMA has offered support while guiding it upwards, setting the index mere pips away from posting a new year-to-date high.

Such an achievement could be unlocked with another hawkish surprise twist out of the BOE this week, if it happens.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 22.06.2021 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset continues testing the support level where it has formed several reversal patterns, including Hammer. At the moment, USDCAD may reverse and start a new growth towards 1.2490. After testing this level, the price may break it and continue its ascending tendency. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may fall to reach the next support area at 1.2335 before further growth.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support level. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of another ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance area at 0.7570. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may fall towards the support level at 0.7445, break it, and then continue trading downwards.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is still rebounding from the support area, where it has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse and start a new growth. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.9260. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may return to 0.9140 before resuming its growth.

USDCHF

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR In Fragile Rebound

By Orbex

EURUSD faces psychological resistance

EURUSD

The euro rises back after ECB officials’ comment that global inflation is of a temporary nature.

Indeed, the pair is consolidating, which is usually the case following a strong directional movement.

The RSI has recovered into the neutrality area. Its divergence indicates a slowdown in the sell-off. 1.1925 is the immediate resistance. Its breach would lead to the psychological level of 1.2000, where sellers are likely to double down.

A break under 1.1850 may trigger a 100-pip sell-off towards 1.1750, a critical daily support.

AUDUSD tests daily support

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar is under pressure after flat retail sales numbers in May.

The sell-off below the major daily support (0.7550) and the lower range of a near six-month consolidation, are a strong bearish signal for the coming weeks. The pair is hovering above the next support at 0.7475 from the daily timeframe.

On an intraday level, the RSI has recovered from an extremely oversold situation. The bullish divergence suggests a loss in the downward momentum. A rebound will need to clear 0.7550 to gain traction.

US 30 recovers to key resistance

Dow Jones

While the Dow Jones index recovers some of last week’s losses, sentiment, however, remains downbeat.

Price action has fallen below 33300, a critical support on the daily chart. While it would be too soon to call it an outright bearish reversal, the index is likely to go sideways in the short term.

The technical bounce may face stiff selling pressure around 34100, a demand zone turned into a supply zone as trapped buyers await to bail out unscathed. 33400 is the closest support when an overbought RSI falls back.

By Orbex

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 22.06.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is still correcting towards 1.1944 and may later resume falling with the short-term target at 1.1750. After that, the instrument may start a new growth to return to 1.1944 and then resume trading downwards to reach 1.1660.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD continues the correction to reach 1.3941. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the short-term target at 1.3757.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After finishing the ascending wave at 73.30, USDRUB is expected to consolidate below this level. After breaking this range to the downside, the instrument may start another decline to break 72.32 and then continue falling with the target at 71.00.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is growing towards 110.51. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to reach 110.11 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 111.33.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still moving upwards to reach 0.9292. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 0.9127 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 0.9400.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still correcting towards 0.7600. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 0.7451.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent continues growing towards 74.74 and may later form a new descending structure to reach 73.50. After that, the instrument may start another growth with the short-term target at 75.55 and then correct downwards to reach 70.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating above 1761.78. Possibly, the metal may break the range to the upside and correct towards 1833.20. Later, the market may resume trading downwards with the target at 1750.70.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

After finishing the ascending wave at 4222.8, the S&P index is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 4303.3 and then resume trading downwards to reach 4166.1.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.06.22

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1855
  • Prev Close: 1.1917
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.52%

On Monday, the head of ECB Christine Lagarde announced that more than 100 million people in the European Union have been vaccinated against COVID-19. The ECB officials expect that the second half of the year will show an acceleration of economic growth in the eurozone. Analysts are confident that, considering the continued soft monetary policy in the EU, the euro will strengthen in the medium term.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1835, 1.1809
  • Resistance levels: 1.1920, 1.2002, 1.2050, 1.2109, 1.2144, 1.2174, 1.2212, 1.2243

Sellers’ pressure is weakening. The MACD indicator has already moved into the positive zone, the correction bounce has started. The price is now trading in a narrow flat. Under such market conditions, traders can look for both selling deals from the resistance levels and buying deals from the support levels. There is an untested support level below, so the price can make one more downward move before it starts to rise.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2144 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.06.22:
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3803
  • Prev Close: 1.3933
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.94%

The British pound increased by 0.94% on Monday. The acceleration of economic growth in the Foggy Albion is still limited by a tight quarantine due to the new Indian COVID-19 strain. But in general, low interest rates allow companies to borrow and expand capacity and business. Therefore, as soon as the restrictions are lifted, the investors should expect an increase in consumer demand, which will favorably affect the national currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3767
  • Resistance levels: 1.3931, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101, 1.4138, 1.4191

The GBP/USD trend is bearish on the H1 timeframe. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving average. The MACD indicator returned to the positive zone. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for both sell trades from the resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels on the intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.4101 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 110.17
  • Prev Close: 110.31
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.14%

The USD/JPY currency pair failed to break down the priority change level of 109.83 and returned to the uptrend. Buyers not only kept the level but also managed to break through two resistance levels at once. The fundamental background for the USD/JPY is mixed now, as on the one hand, the dollar index will continue to weaken, and on the other hand, the Japanese yen is also demonstrating weakness. But at the moment, the Japanese yen is much weaker.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.23,109.83, 109.62, 109.31
  • Resistance levels: 110.47, 110.73 110.94, 111.48

The trend is still bullish, but the price has reached the priority change level. The price is trading above the moving average, and the MACD indicator has returned to the positive zone. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from the support levels. The price has reached the resistance level now, so traders need to wait for either a breakout or a bounce from the level downward.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.83, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2458
  • Prev Close: 1.2363
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.77%

There is a corrective movement down within the uptrend on the USD/CAD currency pair. But many analysts believe that the fundamental picture for the Canadian dollar is more promising because the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is correlated with oil prices, which show strong growth. Therefore, as soon as the market reaction to the Fed’s statements is over, the experts expect the USD/CAD quotes to decline in the mid-term.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2321, 1.2251, 1.2190, 1,2148 1.2121, 1.2096
  • Resistance levels: 1.2404, 1.2478, 1.2519

Technically, the trend remains bullish. The price is now trading above the moving average, and the MACD indicator has moved into the negative zone. Buyers should wait for the price on the support levels and then look for long deals. There are no optimal entry points for sell positions right now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2190 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Better risk mood sees dollar soften

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

Markets are taking a big deep breath and regathering their thoughts after the tumultuous Fed shock of last week. With trader’s eyes nervously peering across to the central bank’s favoured measure of inflation released on Friday in the form of the US PCE, we also get a host of Fed speakers and the main man himself, Chair Jay Powell speaking tomorrow.

Fed officials Bullard, Kaplan and Williams speak later today after the former was out on the wires Friday saying his “dot” was for a hike in 2022. He is not a voter at the Fed but predicted faster inflation next year of 2.5% in core PCE versus the 2.1% forecast at the recent FOMC meeting.

There are still question marks over the size of the recent market moves with yields rising at the front end and selling off further out – a flattening yield curve – normally suggesting a lack of confidence in the outlook for the US economy, even as the Fed creeps towards tapering.

Bond yields bounce back

The USD is trading broadly lower to kick off this week in the first real dip in the rally since last week.

Risk sentiment is more positive today which is seeing a bid in high beta commodity dollar currencies while JPY and CHF are little changed. 10-year US bond yields dropped near to 1.35% in Asian trade before rebounding strongly back near to 1.50% at the time of writing.

EUR/USD has found steady support today around 1.1850 which is last week’s low from Friday. Price signals are modestly positive on shorter timeframes possibly suggesting a base, though this is natural after such a violent move lower. The RSI also points to oversold conditions so gains through 1.1925 should push the pair north, with resistance at 1.1950 around the February lows.

Gold regains a footing

After the six per cent selloff last week, its biggest in 15 months, gold is desperately trying to find a foothold and some near-term support. A Fib level of this year’s low to high move sits at $1768 while the RSI is in oversold territory below 30. Resistance above comes in at the 100-day SMA just below $1800.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Currency Futures Charts: US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Pound, Swiss Franc, Peso, Bitcoin

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 15 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.48.317.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.512.37.4
– Net Position:-2,303-1,4953,798
– Gross Longs:25,6183,1206,577
– Gross Shorts:27,9214,6152,779
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.7 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.872.168.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.56.46.6

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 118,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,973 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.354.914.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.381.15.2
– Net Position:118,186-182,09163,905
– Gross Longs:210,816381,40999,890
– Gross Shorts:92,630563,50035,985
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.324.383.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-11.39.3

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.439.224.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.871.113.0
– Net Position:32,170-49,88317,713
– Gross Longs:55,20361,12338,047
– Gross Shorts:23,033111,00620,334
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.20.292.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-7.0-0.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -46,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.872.612.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.930.624.0
– Net Position:-46,85065,317-18,467
– Gross Longs:22,974112,79818,879
– Gross Shorts:69,82447,48137,346
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.265.520.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.25.2-10.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.119.540.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.842.243.0
– Net Position:9,387-8,396-991
– Gross Longs:14,8757,23114,949
– Gross Shorts:5,48815,62715,940
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.920.061.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.5-17.119.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.951.119.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.479.97.6
– Net Position:44,254-72,92128,667
– Gross Longs:73,071129,18548,013
– Gross Shorts:28,817202,10619,346
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.96.090.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.3-7.6-9.2

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -17,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.345.821.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.737.515.1
– Net Position:-17,88010,3567,524
– Gross Longs:40,13956,90226,262
– Gross Shorts:58,01946,54618,738
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.829.973.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.621.4-13.6

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.734.215.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.149.19.0
– Net Position:3,265-5,6572,392
– Gross Longs:18,46612,9625,787
– Gross Shorts:15,20118,6193,395
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.721.779.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.97.64.6

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -23,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.447.24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.033.12.2
– Net Position:-23,93020,3973,533
– Gross Longs:68,67568,3076,669
– Gross Shorts:92,60547,9103,136
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.896.258.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.810.1-3.7

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.620.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.272.25.1
– Net Position:18,659-20,8092,150
– Gross Longs:27,5648,2094,209
– Gross Shorts:8,90529,0182,059
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.11.698.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.0-41.012.0

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.767.45.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.872.64.2
– Net Position:1,904-2,540636
– Gross Longs:13,08933,0592,691
– Gross Shorts:11,18535,5992,055
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.979.763.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.58.7-6.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,181 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.48.424.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.81.99.7
– Net Position:-1,6094891,120
– Gross Longs:4,3206311,851
– Gross Shorts:5,929142731
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 14.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.786.726.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.416.1-9.8

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 21.06.2021 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is forming a stable wave to the downside after a divergence on MACD, which has already reached 61.8% fibo and may later continue towards 76.0% fibo and the low at 1736.33 and 1676.78 respectively. At the same time, a breakout of the resistance at 1916.52 may lead to a further rising movement towards the mid-term targets, which are 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 1922.95 and 1979.00 respectively.

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows a correctional ascending wave after a convergence on MACD approaching 23.6% fibo at 1794.50, a breakout of which may lead to a further uptrend towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1815.32 and 1832.37 respectively. The support is the low at 1760.83. If the price breaks this level, the asset will complete the correction and resume trading downwards.

GOLD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDCHF is steadily growing after a convergence on MACD and has already broken 50.0% fibo in anticipation of a short-term correction. After this correction is over, the asset may start a new rising impulse towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.9264 and 0.9342 respectively. The key support is the low at 0.8926.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the pullback after a divergence on MACD towards 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 0.9165, 0.9119, 0.9083 respectively. The local resistance is the high at 0.9239, a breakout of which will lead to a further movement towards 61.8% fibo at 0.9264.

USDCHF_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.