Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 260

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.06.28

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1929
  • Prev Close: 1.1932
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.02%

Compared to Friday, the situation is almost unchanged. At the moment the EUR/USD currency pair is trading in a narrow corridor. From the fundamental point of view, the remaining soft monetary policy from the Fed plays in favor of strengthening the euro, and for the situation to change, the labor market data should show a dynamic to the pre-crisis levels.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1920, 1.1835, 1.1809
  • Resistance levels: 1.2002, 1.2050, 1.2109, 1.2144, 1.2174, 1.2212, 1.2243

The price is trading above the level of 1.1920 but below the moving average line. The MACD indicator is inactive. The trend is still bearish, but sellers’ pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, traders can look for both sell trades from resistance levels and buy trades from support levels with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2144 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3911
  • Prev Close: 1.3877
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.24%

The GBP/USD currency pair again declined slightly by the end of the day. Coronavirus restrictions in the United Kingdom are still holding back business activity in various sectors of the economy, but many analysts are confident that the British currency will strengthen in the second half of the year.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3767
  • Resistance levels: 1.3931, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101, 1.4138, 1.4191

The GBP/USD trend is bearish on the H1 timeframe. The price is trading near the moving average, while the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but with signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for both sell trades from the resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels on the intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.4101 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 110.85
  • Prev Close: 110.78
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.06%

The USD/JPY currency pair slightly corrected to the nearest support level, where the buyers still manage to keep the pressure of sellers. The fundamental picture remains mixed, as both the dollar index and the Japanese yen are showing weakness at the moment.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 110.64, 110.47, 110.23, 109.83, 109.62, 109.31
  • Resistance levels: 111.09, 111.48

The trend remains bullish. The price is trading above the moving average. The MACD indicator is inactive. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from support levels. Sell positions can be considered on intraday timeframes after breakdown of support level 110.47.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.83, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2319
  • Prev Close: 1.2295
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.19%

The USD/CAD currency pair formed a narrow flat. For the continuation of the uptrend it is important for the buyers to break out through the resistance level of 1.2312. But the fundamental background remains mixed, with a slight advantage to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar, i.e., the fall of USD/CAD quotes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2251, 1.2190, 1,2148 1.2121, 1.2096
  • Resistance levels: 1.2321, 1.2404, 1.2478, 1.2519

Technically, the trend remains bullish. Now the price is trading near the moving average, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to trade on the lower timeframes. Buyers may look for buy trades from support levels. There are no optimal entry points for sell trades right now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2190 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Oil Ready to Go Higher Amid Growth Drivers

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Early in the last week of June, Brent continues rising. On Monday, the asset is trading at $76.10 and may easily go higher. There are at least two drivers for this.

The first driver is an unbridled enthusiasm of investors, who believe in extremely active global demand for energies as the world’s economies continue recovering. It is indeed the case but there won’t be a V-shaped growth – every country is fighting the pandemic in its own rhythm, which depends on a lot of factors, that’s why the demand for energies may grow inconsistently.

The second factor that supports bulls lies in a possible supply shortage, which may be 2.5-3 million barrels per day. In this case, it’s quite clear why oil has been rising for five weeks in a row.

In this light, it will be very interesting to follow the July meeting of OPEC+, where they may once again discuss possible expansions of the oil extraction.

In the H4 chart, after breaking 74.45 to the upside, Brent is still forming the ascending wave and may soon reach 76.35. Later, the market may correct to test 74.45 from above and then resume trading within the uptrend with the target at 78.00. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0 and may re-enter the histogram area, thus confirming a further uptrend on the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 74.45, Brent continues trading upwards and forming the third ascending structure towards 76.53. After that, the instrument may correct to return to 74.45 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 77.50. From the technical point of view, this idea is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after returning to 20, its signal line is expected to rebound and resume growing to break 50. Later, the indicator may continue moving towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB continue to actively print money. The situation in the financial markets remains unchanged.

by JustForex

The US Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE) excluding food and energy components increased 0.5% after rising 0.7% in April. The American economy is on the rise, but labor market data remains the weak link of this dynamics. With the gradual economy open, inflation has begun to slow, but some sectors are still struggling to recover. However, analysts are confident that the situation should improve significantly by the fall. Especially because the bipartisan infrastructure development bill for $1.2 trillion was adopted last week.

Almost all European stock indexes increased on Friday, except French CAC 40, which fell by 0.12%. The fundamental picture in Western Europe is positive. With the growth rate of vaccination, business activity in the Eurozone has moved sharply upward. Inflation data will be released this week on Wednesday, which is directly related to the ECB monetary policy.

Compared to Friday, the situation on gold is almost unchanged. Gold and silver are now trading in a range. But the fundamental picture shows that precious metals will grow. However, it is worth keeping a close eye on US Treasury yields, which have an inverse correlation to gold.

OPEC+ countries will hold an official meeting this week on Thursday. Analysts expect production to increase as demand for fuel soars during the summer season. Oil prices hit another 2-year high on Friday. The technical analysis shows that the price of “black gold” reached the weekly resistance, so the price may consolidate for a while before it continues growing.

The Asian market is highly correlated with the US market at the moment. But investors are very concerned about a surge of coronavirus infection in some Asian countries. First of all, it’s Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange said Monday that the trading session in the stock markets had been postponed because of a “black rainstorm” warning.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,280.70 +14.21 (+0.33%)

Dow Jones 34,433.84 +237.02 (+0.69%)

DAX 15,607.97 +18.74 (+0.12%)

FTSE 100 7,136.07 +26.10 (+0.37%)

USD Index 91.81 0.00 (0.00%)

There are no important events today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Intraday Market Analysis – EUR Seeks Rebound Opportunity

By Orbex

EURUSD hovers under psychological resistance

EURUSD

The euro bounced back after the core PCE of the US stayed subdued in May.

After rallying above 1.1910, price action has turned this former resistance into a support base. The current consolidation could be an accumulation phase for the buy-side.

Early bulls are aiming at the psychological level of 1.2000. A bullish breakout would force sellers to unwind their positions and trigger a recovery above 1.2100.

In the meantime, buyers could be getting involved while the RSI is in the neutral area.

GBPJPY tumbles from supply zone

GBPJPY

The sterling continues to suffer from BOE’s warning against “premature tightening”.

The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 155.20, a major resistance from the daily chart. The sell-off has accelerated after the support at 154.20 failed to hold.

The subsequent drop below 154.00 was a confirmation of the bearish MA cross. 154.50 has become a resistance. 153.10 is the next support as the RSI bounces off an oversold situation. Below that, the price may retrace all the way back to 152.00.

US 30 breaks above multiple resistances

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones recouped recent losses as investors’ buy-in for Biden’s infrastructure deal.

The bulls have successfully pushed past 34100 then 34350. This indicates that the lack of selling interest has helped buyers regain the upper hand.

Momentum traders seem unfazed by an overbought RSI so far. The index is heading towards 34750, a supply zone from the previous sell-off. A bullish breakout would open the door to the peak at 34850.

On the downside, the psychological level of 34000 has turned into a key support.

By Orbex

Key events this week: Brent oil awaits OPEC+ decision, NFP may dictate USD’s next move

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

As we get ready to enter the second half of the year, here are the major events over the coming days that carry enough weight to influence various asset classes:

Monday, June 28

  • Fed speak: New York Fed President John Williams
  • European Commission’s summer economic forecasts

Tuesday, June 29

  • Fed speak: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • Germany CPI
  • Eurozone economic confidence
  • US consumer confidence

Wednesday, June 30

  • UK GDP
  • Germany unemployment
  • Eurozone CPI
  • US ADP jobs

Thursday, July 1

  • China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • OPEC+ meeting
  • BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
  • Eurozone unemployment
  • Manufacturing PMI: US, Eurozone, UK

Friday, July 2

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • Eurozone PPI
  • US nonfarm payrolls

 

Commodities spotlight: Brent oil

OPEC+ is set to make another key decision on 1 July: whether or not to pump out more oil in August.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the cartel to raise their collective output levels by another 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. However, even such a hike is expected to leave global markets in a deficit, which could translate into more upside for oil prices.

As things stand, Brent prices are trading at their highest levels since October 2018. However, judging by its relative strength index, which has crossed the 70 mark to indicate overbought levels, Brent appears ripe for an adjustment in the near-term. Such a pullback would then clear some of the froth to pave the way higher for Brent oil.

However, the uncertainty over the US-Iran nuclear talks still looms over Thursday’s meeting. A US-Iran nuclear deal could see Iran resuming oil exports and upsetting the cartel’s supply plans. It remains to be seen how OPEC+ continues restoring its supplies into the world while taking into account this wildcard.

Still, come Thursday, a smaller-than-expected output hike of fewer than 550,000 barrels per day in August could send Brent prices even higher and closer to the psychologically-important $80/bbl mark.

 

Strike three for US nonfarm payrolls?

The US nonfarm payrolls has disappointed markets for the past two straight months. As things stand, economists are forecasting 700,000 jobs were added in the US labour market this month. If so, that would the highest NFP print in three months, since the March figures.

In the leadup to that tier-1 economic release, this USD index, which is an equally-weighted index comprising 6 major currency pairs, has settled into a more “normal” conditions since pulling back from overbought levels.

However, another lackluster NFP print could give the Fed more runway before having to ease up on its asset purchases, which could prompt the greenback to unwind more of its recent gains and test its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) as the next support level.

Still, the greenback could be jolted by another US jobs shocker this Friday.

A June hiring surge in the US could ramp up expectations for the Fed’s tapering once more. Such a narrative could call upon this USD index’s 200-day SMA as a key resistance level once more.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Week In Review: Fed’s Mixed Messages, Oil Rallies, Biden’s Infrastructure Deal

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

It was a week defined by speeches from numerous Federal Reserve officials and Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress.

Monday kicked off on a positive note as markets took a big breath and regathered their thoughts after the Fed’s hawkish surprise last week. King Dollar entered the week on a shaky note, dipping back below 92.00 while gold attempted to nurse its deep wounds.

Things started getting interesting on Monday evening as the first batch of Fed speakers entered the spotlight. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan favoured tapering “sooner rather than later” while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed needs to be prepared to face upside risks to inflation. However, New York Fed President John Williams said he expected inflation to drop back towards the Fed’s longer-run goal.

Equity markets pushed higher on Tuesday thanks to dovish commentary from Fed officials including Chairman Jerome Powell. In written remarks prepared for his testimony before Congress, he reiterated that the recent jump in inflation would prove transitory.

In other news, the Eurozone consumer confidence flash survey rose by 1.8 points from a month earlier to -3.3 in June – its highest level since January 2018.

Our trade of the week was the British Pound. We questioned whether the Bank of England would deliver a hawkish surprise after the Fed’s surprise pivot last week. After being beaten black and blue last week, the GBPUSD staged a sharp rebound on Monday with prices trading around the 100-day Simple Moving Average before the BoE decision.

On Tuesday evening, Chair Jerome Powell struck a more cautious tone during his testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crises. Powell reiterated the view that higher inflation would be transitory and how the Fed was nowhere near hiking interest rates. Equity bulls rejoiced on this dovish rhetoric with the Nasdaq rallying to fresh record highs.

Mid-week more Fed speakers were under the spotlight. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman both said that they believed the current price pressure could be temporary. However, they added it could remain higher for longer than expected. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren expected inflation to come down and return close to the Fed’s 2% target going into next year.

In the commodities arena, Brent futures surpassed $76.00 this week – reaching their highest levels since October 2018. Oil bulls remain in a position of power as demand continues to outstrip supply. The reopening of economies has fuelled expectations over rising fuel demand while stalled nuclear talks between the US and Iran continue to soothe concerns over Iranian supplies returning to the markets. WTI Crude has gained over 52% since the start of 2021 while Brent is trailing behind appreciating roughly 47%.

All eyes were on the Bank of England on Thursday. Investors who were expecting more hawks to join the policy discussion were left-empty handed. As widely expected, the central bank left interest rates unchanged while a majority voted to maintain asset purchases at the current level of $895 billion. The British Pound depreciated after the BoE decision with prices trading below 1.3900 as of writing. Sterling has weakened against most G10 currencies this week excluding the dollar and Japanese Yen.

Global stocks mostly rose on Friday, boosted by a rally on Wallstreet overnight after US President Joe Biden announced a bipartisan infrastructure deal. Equity bulls derived further strength from the weaker than expected inflation data which eased worries about monetary policy tightening in the near term.

The May core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.4% from a year ago. Although this was the biggest increase since 1992, it was in line with market expectations. The PCE index rose 3.9% year-over-year – also in line with market forecasts. For the month, the core index rose 0.5% which was below the 0.6% estimate while the one including volatile food and energy prices rose 0.4% for the month – below the 0.5% estimate.

The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high on Friday and is on route to concluding the week roughly 2.8% higher.

Let’s not forget about gold. The precious metal has struggled to nurse the deep wounds inflicted from last week’s brutal selloff. Gold remains trapped within a range with support around $1760-$1768 and resistance at $1794 which is where the 100-day Simple Average resides. A breakout could be on the horizon.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Currency Futures Charts: US Dollar Index, Euro, Yen, Sterling, Swiss Franc, Mexican Peso, Bitcoin

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 22 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:70.83.820.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.214.58.6
– Net Position:-510-3,7074,217
– Gross Longs:24,5041,3017,181
– Gross Shorts:25,0145,0082,964
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.3 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.968.474.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.12.221.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 89,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -29,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.955.313.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.176.15.9
– Net Position:89,057-144,57955,522
– Gross Longs:207,863383,89496,568
– Gross Shorts:118,806528,47341,046
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.334.971.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.55.7-22.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.049.719.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.665.213.9
– Net Position:17,927-26,5788,651
– Gross Longs:51,44585,16932,470
– Gross Shorts:33,518111,74723,819
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.914.073.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.413.6-26.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.972.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.232.620.6
– Net Position:-53,86276,170-22,308
– Gross Longs:34,118138,24216,991
– Gross Shorts:87,98062,07239,299
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.070.613.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.39.9-16.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,552 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,387 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.124.125.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.738.643.3
– Net Position:13,552-6,085-7,467
– Gross Longs:20,98010,10310,676
– Gross Shorts:7,42816,18818,143
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.422.443.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.5-11.8-14.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.143.621.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.776.59.7
– Net Position:43,225-66,69023,465
– Gross Longs:69,07488,46143,060
– Gross Shorts:25,849155,15119,595
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.09.982.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-0.3-6.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.045.914.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.932.216.8
– Net Position:-17,57520,348-2,773
– Gross Longs:56,13367,90722,094
– Gross Shorts:73,70847,55924,867
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.238.351.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.334.3-46.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.837.311.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.447.89.6
– Net Position:3,286-4,130844
– Gross Longs:19,17114,6554,615
– Gross Shorts:15,88518,7853,771
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.824.062.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.212.4-22.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.350.44.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.731.82.5
– Net Position:-28,59126,0952,496
– Gross Longs:61,95570,5535,973
– Gross Shorts:90,54644,4583,477
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.499.053.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.111.2-10.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,659 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.421.412.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.069.58.1
– Net Position:18,265-20,2391,974
– Gross Longs:27,5409,0025,390
– Gross Shorts:9,27529,2413,416
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.52.496.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.1-22.11.9

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.954.56.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.684.32.2
– Net Position:10,096-11,8591,763
– Gross Longs:15,49521,6902,633
– Gross Shorts:5,39933,549870
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.358.4100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-11.512.6

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 81 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.98.224.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.21.811.2
– Net Position:-1,5285031,025
– Gross Longs:4,5026451,913
– Gross Shorts:6,030142888
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 14.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.988.323.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.6-11.7-10.1

 


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Week Ahead: Markets Jitter With Indecisive Fed

By Orbex

AUDUSD recovers as volatility cools off

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar recovers as risk sentiment makes a timid return.

Despite headwinds from the weakness in copper and iron ore prices, the Aussie takes a breather as the post-FOMC volatility dies down. Calm time allows traders to weigh the shift in the fundamentals.

The Aussie fell amid widespread profit-takings in a crowded short-dollar trade. However, if the market is to keep faith in the Fed’s patience, the sell-off may not go beyond a mere correction.

The pair has found buying interest at 0.7470. The rebound may come under pressure near the 30-day moving average and the resistance at 0.7700.

USDJPY rallies on policy divergence

USDJPY

The US dollar consolidates its recent gain as Fed officials give mixed signals on the rate hike schedule.

While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell played down inflation pressures, others have argued that high prices may last longer than anticipated. This could bring forward the taper agenda. These conflicting statements reflect as much data uncertainty as markets’ indecision.

The only certainty is that the dollar bears have taken some chips off the table and would think twice before doubling down.

The greenback has rallied above April’s peak at 110.90 and is heading towards 112.00. 109.20 is the immediate support.

NAS 100 extends upward after stimulus agreement

NAS100

The Nasdaq 100 index hit a new all-time high after President Joe Biden secured a deal on his $1 trillion infrastructure plan. Indeed, this massive cheque helps investors ease their concerns about inflation.

Even though rounds of stimulus may eventually lead to high prices down the road, that is more of a long-term bet for stock markets to price in now. Investors seem to be unfazed and would rather welcome immediate liquidity instead.

The rally has sped up its pace after the index broke above April’s peak at 14050. 14800 would be the next target. 13900 is the support to look for in case of a pullback.

XAUUSD treads water on softer dollar

XAUUSD

Bullions consolidate as the US dollar slows down the tempo. In fact, the Fed-led confusion about the timing of tapering has forced traders to reassess their outlook.

Last week’s plunge might be due to profit-takings after the latest rebound. If one believes that the stock market is ahead of the crowd, the low-rate narrative will not changed and the underlying trend would still prevail. This means that the sell-off could be a boon for those who missed the recovery rally.

Gold is hovering above the support at 1760. A bearish breakout would lead to the critical level at 1680. On the upside, the psychological level of 1900 is the main hurdle.

By Orbex

USDJPY Double Three To Move To 107.56

By Orbex

The USDJPY currency pair seems to be forming a bullish double zigzag of the primary degree. This consists of three main sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ.

The market has completed the primary actionary wave Ⓦ, which took the form of a triple zigzag. Then it began to move in a horizontal direction, forming an intervening wave Ⓧ.

We can assume that the wave Ⓧ takes the form of a double three (W)-(X)-(Y) of the intermediate degree.

Thus, in the near future, we could see a downward price move in the final wave (Y), in the direction of the support level of 107.56, located on the lower forming line.

An alternative scenario suggests that the primary intervening wave Ⓧ has already been completed. Indeed, it may have the form of a bearish double zigzag.

Wave Ⓨ is most likely a double zigzag consisting of intermediate sub-waves (W)-(X)-(Y).

In the upcoming trading days, prices could move higher in the minor impulse C to the level of 112.236, where they will complete the primary wave Ⓨ. At that level, wave Ⓨ will be at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of wave Ⓦ.

Then, after the end of the entire uptrend, a new downtrend could develop.

By Orbex

Intraday Market Analysis – GBP Sees Temporary Retreat

By Orbex

GBPUSD retreats for support

GBPUSD

The sterling retreated after a dovish BOE kept its policy unchanged, despite higher inflation.

The pair has bounced off the key support at 1.3800 on the daily chart. The break above 1.3900 suggests the short side may have unwound their positions.

However, price action has met stiff pressure at the psychological level of 1.4000, while the RSI was in the overbought territory.

The current pullback is likely to test the bulls’ resolve between 1.3800 and 1.3860. A bullish breakout would open the path towards 1.4200.

SPX 500 breaks above peak

SPX500

The S&P 500 has recouped all losses after the Fed Chairman played down inflation pressures.

There is no lack of V-shaped recoveries in recent market conditions as volatility goes wild. Even though it is choppy, the directional bias remains upward, and the rebound above 4250 just confirms the bulls’ commitment.

As price action rallies above the previous peak at 4270, an overbought RSI may hold buyers back. 4243 is the support in case of a limited pullback. Nonetheless, a new round of buying would send the index to new highs above 4300.

XAGUSD hovers above daily support

XAGUSD

Silver takes a breather, as the US dollar softens across the board.

Price action is looking to gain a foothold above 25.70, which is an important support from the daily timeframe. The consolidation is a sign of indecision after a strong impetus.

The RSI divergence indicates a slowdown in the bearish momentum. A close above 26.50 would confirm buying interest and initiate a reversal. 27.80 would be the next target if the rally gains traction. Failing that, a drop below 25.70 could trigger a new round of sell-off towards 25.10.

By Orbex